The official NFL thread

[LeafNation]

I just found this write up on predicting records.. It's quite interesting.. While it's a trend follower, and it's certainly not perfect, I thought it was a good read-

http://www.footballsfuture.com/nfl/2008/predicting.html

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=244067

 

[leafman101]

Ghoulston wasn't a "project pick." He was an elite college pass rusher, who was in an unquestionable group of the top 6 prospects in this draft.

He was never, however, project to be a pro bowler as a rookie.

You put too much stock into the exhibition.

 

[blkngldbabe]

Interesting process... I've always been a believer in that line of thinking. ie The Jets last season. They had NUMEROUS close losses (4) and I never thought they were nearly as bad as they looked. (yes, even before we lost to them LOL!)

 

[LeafNation]

Ghoulston wasn't a "project pick." He was an elite college pass rusher, who was in an unquestionable group of the top 6 prospects in this draft.

He was never, however, project to be a pro bowler as a rookie.

You put too much stock into the exhibition.

Before the draft I thought he had the highest bust rate of any of the top 10.. I can PM you my quote on that in a football thread before the draft, so I am not just trying to slam on a Jets top pick..

The thing with Gholston, to me when watching his film, is that he looks too stiff.. Average lateral movement which is not good for a linebacker.... He only has one real pass rushing move, and in the NFL when you have much better athletes you better have some kind of assortment.

Another thing that was a red flag to me was he only had like 36 tackles or so in his last season of college football.. That's terrible.. Look at other DE's who were drafted and see some of them have as high as 60 and 70 tackles..

To me, Gholston just seems like those workout warriors you see with ripping muscle but don't project well to the NFL.. People fell in love with his measurables and his one move in college.. Not as a complete football player

Moving a player to a whole new position he hasn't played in college is indeed a "project".. Now, the guy could come on and be a real player, anything can happen.. But I just didn't like him at the draft being selected there.

 

[LeafNation]

By the way, it's not like the Jets don't have a bad history at the draft table-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98

Best NFL video on youtube. lol. Gotta love the quote by the fan on his reasons for missing Marino.. :lol

 

[LeafNation]

Interesting process... I've always been a believer in that line of thinking. ie The Jets last season. They had NUMEROUS close losses (4) and I never thought they were nearly as bad as they looked. (yes, even before we lost to them LOL!)

That article also shines a nice light on the Steelers.. I think they are better than the 10-6 team they showed last season.. Miami also lost 6 games by 3 points or less last season (despite being ravaged by injuries, with the worst run defense in the NFL, shoddy QB play, and subpar O-line play)

 

[LeafNation]

I'd be thrilled if anyone can make your division more of a contest. Patriots running away with it every year is sad considering some of the talent over there. Good luck! I'd love to see the "kings" fall.

There has been a good history of super bowl losers having lousy follow-up seasons.. Of the previous 10 Super Bowl losers, seven didn't even make the playoffs the next year.

I think New England's O-line is average at best.. When we beat em 21-0 a couple of years ago we just tore apart that O-line of theirs.. The Giants did the same thing in the super bowl.. I think a lot of teams will take what the Giants did attacking New England's O-line.

And their defense is getting old.. When a unit gets old it happens quickly.. Look at Miami's defense last season.. From the 4th best defense in the NFL two years ago, to the worst run defense in the NFL last year (32nd).. That's because they got old and slow, rather QUICKLY.

They also lost their best corner in Asante Samuel to the Eagles with no one to replace him. They don't have him to shutdown half of the field anymore.

There are some chinks in the armor there.

Call me crazy, but I predict a down year for the Patriots.

 

[MyNameIsJonas]

how abut chadjohnon legally changing his name to ocho cinco

 

[LeafNation]

I hope Henne is all you expect of him and turns that team around with some help from his friends.

The coaches absolutely love him- as in "tough love"

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/miami-dolphins/story/661348.html

Now some people may take that a different way. The truth is, if a coach like Sparano doesn't talk to a young player, that player better be worried.. If he yells at you constantly, that means he likes you as he sees a ton of potential in you (especially for a QB-- Sparano hasn't yelled at Beck at all and he is 3rd string)..

Sparano and Parcells are cut of the same cloth. Very similar personalities. Remember when Parcells called Terry Glenn "she" in New England. That comment got a lot of publicity. Well, in time it proved that Parcells really liked the guy despite that remark. After all, Parcells brought Terry Glenn to Dallas many years later.

 

[LeafNation]

Jaguars seem to be getting in a lot of trouble lately.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/breaking-news/story/665821.html

Veteran Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor was arrested outside of a Miami Beach nightclub early Sunday morning and charged with disorderly conduct.

And BlkNGold, I heard that 2 of your offensive linemen are on the trade block. Max Starks and Essex.

Big night tonight with all the cuts to trim rosters down to 53. There is a first time special tonight on NFL network covering all the transactions-

http://blog.mlive.com/twominutedrill/2008/08/nfl_network_turns_cut_day_into.html

I am watching the waiver wire, and quite a few good players are getting released. This is a guy who was released that I would like on my team as a nickel corner. Following USF he was damn good in college.

http://nfldraftwatch.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/sleeper-watch-trae-williams/

 

[leafman101]

Before the draft I thought he had the highest bust rate of any of the top 10.. I can PM you my quote on that in a football thread before the draft, so I am not just trying to slam on a Jets top pick..

The thing with Gholston, to me when watching his film, is that he looks too stiff.. Average lateral movement which is not good for a linebacker.... He only has one real pass rushing move, and in the NFL when you have much better athletes you better have some kind of assortment.

Another thing that was a red flag to me was he only had like 36 tackles or so in his last season of college football.. That's terrible.. Look at other DE's who were drafted and see some of them have as high as 60 and 70 tackles..

To me, Gholston just seems like those workout warriors you see with ripping muscle but don't project well to the NFL.. People fell in love with his measurables and his one move in college.. Not as a complete football player

Moving a player to a whole new position he hasn't played in college is indeed a "project".. Now, the guy could come on and be a real player, anything can happen.. But I just didn't like him at the draft being selected there.

See thats the most common misconception about Gholston. Because he did well at the combine, all of a sudden he is a workout warrior with only measurabes.

In reality we are talking about a guy who in the last two years had 22.5 sacks. He was also the only guy to beat your boy Long for a sack this year.

Before the combine he was already in the "group of 6."

Forget about tackles, and stopping the run. Maybe he will develop an "all around game," but thats not what he does. He's a premier pass rusher, thats why he was drafted, and thats what will be expected of him.

 

[LeafNation]

That's not a misconception about him at all.. It is shared by Jets fans as he has stunk up the field thus far against 2nd and 3rd teamers- ( and that isn't just preseason games, but the training camp practice report blogs say the same thing about him)

http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=35073

The fact that you bring up the combine just cements what I said about him being merely a "workout warrior" and not translating well to the NFL.. There have been TONS of players look like superstars in shorts at the combine but stunk it up at the NFL level.

He was a project pick because he is playing a new position at OLB in a 3-4 defense. He is playing a totally different defense and a new position.

There is no misconception that he had a very low tackle number in college for a DE going in the 1st round, and that he only has one real move to rush the passer.. NFL tackles will eat that move up.

Take a look at other LB's who were drafted early in 2007 and see how they performed in their first year.. Paul Posluszny made a difference (before getting injured).. Patrick Willis made a difference and was defensive rookie of the year.. Your boy David Harris MADE A DIFFERENCE as a rookie.

When you pick in the top 10, especially for a LB, he better be a difference maker right off the bat.. These aren't 17 and 18 year old kids being drafted like in the NHL.. NFL draftees are already young men.

It's perfectly fine to wait for a CB, WR, or QB to develop as they take more time.. But if you are drafting someone THAT high in the draft who is either a RB, an offensive lineman, or someone in the front 7, they are expected to produce RIGHT away and be good ( and start).. Not getting beat routinely by 2nd and 3rd team scrubs .

 

[leafman101]

You put way too much stock into the exhibition. Chad Henne hasn't even take an NFL snap yet (exhibition doesn't count), and he is the answer to all the Dolphins problems.

Talk to me again in week 17. If Gholston is lost then, they maybe you have to start to worry. Before he even plays his first NFL game? Nah.

And the missconception is that he is JUST a workout warrior. He produced in college. He was an elite defensive player, on an elite defense.

He wasn't a guy who was ok in college, then rocketed up the board on the strength of his combine performance

And as far as DE not taking time to develop...Gains Adams has 6 sacks last year, Jamal Anderson had none.

Number 1 pick Mario Williams had 4 sacks as a rookie and 14 last year. You have to go back to Terell Suggs in 2003 to find the last DE to have a great rookie year. You are just wrong.

You are comparing him to coverage and run guys, not pass rushers. Its an irrelevant comparison.

 

[LeafNation]

You put way too much stock into the exhibition. Chad Henne hasn't even take an NFL snap yet (exhibition doesn't count), and he is the answer to all the Dolphins problems.

so let me get this straight, you are comparing the development time it usually takes a QB, 3 years, compared to a lineman or a linebacker ?

Talk to me again in week 17. If Gholston is lost then, they maybe you have to start to worry. Before he even plays his first NFL game? Nah.

If the guy looked just average out there against starters, it would be one thing.. But he has been just horrible in every way.

And the missconception is that he is JUST a workout warrior. He produced in college. He was an elite defensive player, on an elite defense.

He was not near being a complete player though.. And when you pick at #6, the smart thing to do is get a more complete player.. Gholston is just a one trick pony, he always has been.. And even then, he only has one move.

He wasn't a guy who was ok in college, then rocketed up the board on the strength of his combine performance

Right. He was a guy that was tremendously over hyped. Like many before him who eventually did little in the NFL.

And as far as DE not taking time to develop...Gains Adams has 6 sacks last year, Jamal Anderson had none.

Number 1 pick Mario Williams had 4 sacks as a rookie and 14 last year. You have to go back to Terell Suggs in 2003 to find the last DE to have a great rookie year. You are just wrong.

You are comparing him to coverage and run guys, not pass rushers. Its an irrelevant comparison.

Except for the fact that most of those players started. At the draft last year I thought Jamaal Anderson was another overrated draftee who won't be much in the NFL.

And since when are sacks the end all be all? My goodness, hurries and pressures causes QB's to make mistakes.. Loss of down, INT , penalty calls like intentional grounding etc , negative offensive plays occur etc etc. And those guys showed that (with the exception of anderson)..

With that said, anything can happen, like I said before. But I thought he was a reach pick at the time because he is so far away from a complete football player. He's a project type of player.

When you draft players that high in the draft, they should be more complete. Gholston just has bad form on run plays and was below average against the run ( hence his low tackle numbers). Gholston was very weak on the backside contain.. Not to mention only one move.. And he certainly doesn't seem like the smartest cookie in the jar.

With that said, good luck to him. he may pan out yet. I just didn't like where he was drafted-- although I liked the fact that the Jets picked him because there were better players on the draft board.

 

[leafman101]

so let me get this straight, you are comparing the development time it usually takes a QB, 3 years, compared to a lineman of a linebacker ?

No. I am saying you put too much stalk into the preseason.

If the guy looked just average out there against starters, it would be one thing.. But he has been just horrible in every way.

Great. He is still a rookie, and he still hasn't played one official defensive snap yet, never mind a full season.

He was not near being a complete player though.. And when you pick at #6, the smart thing to do is get a more complete player.. Gholston is just a one trick pony, he always has been.. And even then, he only has one move.

Heh. That one trick, just happened to be shown by the Giants as one of the most important tricks around. Especially for stopping Tom Brady. Like Shawn Merriman, and Demarcus Ware are great all around players.

No. They get to the QB. Thats what they are paid to do, and that is one of the most valued commodities in the NFL.

Right. He was a guy that was tremendously over hyped. Like many before him who eventually did little in the NFL.

No. He was a guy who was one of the best pass rushers in college football the last two years. You're boy couldn't even handle him.

Except for the fact that most of those players started. At the draft last year I thought Jamaal Anderson was another overrated draftee who won't be much in the NFL.

So you are already stating that Gholston won't start at all this season. Despite the fact that not even a snap has been taken?

How long exactly do you expect Bryan Thomas to hold him off?

With that said, anything can happen, like I said before. But I thought he was a reach pick at the time because he is so far away from a complete football player. He's a project type of player.

Well considering he was a consensus top 6 pick, its pretty hard to hall picking him at 6 a reach.

When you draft players that high in the draft, they should be more complete. Gholston just has bad form on run plays and was below average against the run ( hence his low tackle numbers). Gholston was very weak on the backside contain.. Not to mention only one move.. And he certainly doesn't seem like the smartest cookie in the jar.

He was drafted as a pass rusher. Thats where his success will be measured. If he is a guy who can get 10 sacks a year, and only plays passing downs, well thats still one hell of a player.

With that said, good luck to him. he may pan out yet. I just didn't like where he was drafted-- although I liked that the Jets picked him because there were better players on the draft board.

There were no better players on the board. Gholston was the consensus number 1 on the board at the time. Maybe guys after him will be better, but so what, lots of guys from this draft will be better than Jake Thomas too.

 

[blkngldbabe]

To be fair (even though I haven`t watched Gholstons performances this preseason) people were calling for Timmons to be a bust last year because as a first rounder and a little know player who had only started one year in college he barely got in the nickel packages. People were demanding that if he was worth the first round tag that he should be playing. He was injured etc and didnt`really contribute much at all. THIS year on the other hand he looks to be a beast. SOmetimes it takes time. Not saying this is the case with Gholston as I DID read things about him being take too high for his worth right after the draft, but sometimes you can never tell.

 

[leafman101]

To be fair (even though I haven`t watched Gholstons performances this preseason) people were calling for Timmons to be a bust last year because as a first rounder and a little know player who had only started one year in college he barely got in the nickel packages. People were demanding that if he was worth the first round tag that he should be playing. He was injured etc and didnt`really contribute much at all. THIS year on the other hand he looks to be a beast. SOmetimes it takes time. Not saying this is the case with Gholston as I DID read things about him being take too high for his worth right after the draft, but sometimes you can never tell.

But thats the thing Gholston wasn't a one year starter, nobody in college.

He was one of the best pass rushers, on one of the best defenses in college. This is my whole point about the misrepresentation. His stock didn't soar from his workout.

 

[LeafNation]

So you are already stating that Gholston won't start at all this season. Despite the fact that not even a snap has been taken?

Like I said over and over again, anything is possible.. He "may" pan out. But I just don't like his game.. You were better off with a more complete DE if that is the route you wanted to take-

http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?t=41026

Well considering he was a consensus top 6 pick, its pretty hard to hall picking him at 6 a reach.

Consensus Shmensus, big deal. There have been a plethora of players with a high consensus that turned out to be just workout warriors. And to me, Gholston looks just like one of them..

Again, I said this BEFORE the draft. BEFORE the Jets even picked him. I can send you a link with my opinion on him before the draft..So this isn't anything about slamming a Jets player (in case you are thinking that)

He was drafted as a pass rusher. Thats where his success will be measured. If he is a guy who can get 10 sacks a year, and only plays passing downs, well thats still one hell of a player.

So let's see, you drafted a guy in the top 6 who will only be a "situational player" ? Not even an every-down player? Are you serious ?

And even then, the guy only had one move. Are you kidding? Do you know how easy it is for NFL OT's to mitigate one move a pass rusher has ?

lots of guys from this draft will be better than Jake Thomas too

But at least Jake Long will be an "every-down" player and we will get our money's worth as he will be on the field for every snap

But finally, and again, we'll see what happens with Gholston.. I certainly wouldn't have picked him in the top 20, nevermind top 6

 

[leafman101]

Like I said over and over again, anything is possible.. He "may" pan out. But I just don't like his game.. You were better off with a more complete DE if that is the route you wanted to take-

http://boards.buffalobills.com/showthread.php?t=41026

But thats not what the Jets wanted. The needed a pass rush from the OLB, as they play a 3-4, so a hyrbid was EXACTLY what they needed.

Consensus Shmensus, big deal. There have been a plethora of players with a high consensus that turned out to be just workout warriors. And to me, Gholston looks just like one of them..

Again, I said this BEFORE the draft. BEFORE the Jets even picked him. I can send you a link with my opinion on him before the draft..So this isn't anything about slamming a Jets player

I'm not questioning your opinion, I'm question you merging your opinion with the general consensus. Even though you may not like Gholston, its not a reach to pick a guy ranked in the top 6 of almost every draft board, in the top 6.

So let's see, you drafted a guy in the top 6 who will only be a "situational player" ? Not even an every-down player? Are you serious ?

For now.

And even then, the guy only had one move. Are you kidding? Do you know how easy it is for NFL OT's to mitigate one move a pass rusher has ?

Ok he has one move. He is also big, and fast, and doesn't need any moves to blow by a lot of OT's in this league. Thats why I guy with this kind of skill is worth a high pick.

But at least Jake Long will be an "every-down" player and we will get our money's worth as he will be on the field for every snap

Well you are also paying him $10 million more in guaranteed money, and almost $20 mill more total.

I mean you are talking $57.5 mill for a guy who a lot of people think is a RT.

There are questions about both teams picks this year.

 

[LeafNation]

Ok he has one move. He is also big, and fast, and doesn't need any moves to blow by a lot of OT's in this league. Thats why I guy with this kind of skill is worth a high pick.

He looks way too stiff laterally when you actually watched his college games. It's amazing how invisible that guy was on the field when he wasn't making a sack..

I compare it to a guy who's a 25 goal scorer who you don't notice on the ice unless he's scoring a goal.. That's how Gholston was. If he wasn't getting a sack, he was getting run over and missing plays left and right. Which was a HIGH percentage of the time. His great lack of football sense and stiffness was just too overwhelming to warrant top 10 pick IMO.

Sure, the guy has great straight ahead speed, but in the NFL, that's not always how you rush the passer most of the time.. He never showed to be nearly as nimble as Merriman or Ware in college ( since you mentioned those two earlier).

Well you are also paying him $10 million more in guaranteed money, and almost $20 mill more total.

Well, my opinion is that Gholston will bust.. It was my opinion before the draft. I would much rather pay Long #1 money than pay a little less for a bust.

But again, ANYTHING can happen and I may eventually be wrong about him. We'll see as time goes on.