Volcanologist
Well-known member
bestest losers to ever lose. thanks for twisting the knife some more, Jared.
TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
Preston
MBow30 alt account
We're gonna run out of room for all the banners real quick.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
pretty impressive haul for a first round exit. maybe the best first round exit... ever?
Wayward DP
Well-known member
Banner’s not gonna make itself now is it?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Anyone have any thoughts on this? This will totally not result in meltdowns, right?
I don't actually think the Leafs think this btw. They obviously know that a 1st round goalie is more likely to hit than late round so I think it's a poorly worded article. But I think they realize and understand that the risk-reward for picking a goalie high is worse than forwards or D. And that since goalies are much harder to project, you may be more likely to find a star in late rounds, compared to forwards or D.
I don't actually think the Leafs think this btw. They obviously know that a 1st round goalie is more likely to hit than late round so I think it's a poorly worded article. But I think they realize and understand that the risk-reward for picking a goalie high is worse than forwards or D. And that since goalies are much harder to project, you may be more likely to find a star in late rounds, compared to forwards or D.
leafman101
Well-known member
I think they definitely think that. In Dubas' 4 drafts, they've picked 3 goalies in the 4th, 6th and 7th rounds.
and they aren’t wrong. Knies, Robertson, Hirvonen we’re much safer picks.
IMO this is the key part of the article:
5 of those goalies are in the last 6 years under Lou/Dubas.
But goalies take forever to develop and pre-Shanny they didn’t draft them. If you only draft 5 goalies in 11 years your odds of producing goalies aren’t great. But if those 5 Rask and Reimer became good NHLers and Sparks and Bibeau got a cup of coffee.
Hopefully what they have done the last 5 years pays off. Woll sucks but at least he is in the mix and Scott would be too without the injuries. But you can’t develop goalies if you don’t draft them.
and they aren’t wrong. Knies, Robertson, Hirvonen we’re much safer picks.
IMO this is the key part of the article:
5 of those goalies are in the last 6 years under Lou/Dubas.
But goalies take forever to develop and pre-Shanny they didn’t draft them. If you only draft 5 goalies in 11 years your odds of producing goalies aren’t great. But if those 5 Rask and Reimer became good NHLers and Sparks and Bibeau got a cup of coffee.
Hopefully what they have done the last 5 years pays off. Woll sucks but at least he is in the mix and Scott would be too without the injuries. But you can’t develop goalies if you don’t draft them.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I don't think there's any chance that they believe that a goalie picked in the first round has the same odds as being an NHLer as a goalie picked in the 7th round, no. I know this because it isn't true. So unless their analysis is horseshit, the article is wrong.
But I do think the probabilities aren't as different than say, a forward in the 1st vs 7th. I think that's where the wording in the article is a bit off. I agree with them of course. I've always hated the idea of going with a goalie in the first round.
But I do think the probabilities aren't as different than say, a forward in the 1st vs 7th. I think that's where the wording in the article is a bit off. I agree with them of course. I've always hated the idea of going with a goalie in the first round.
zeke
Well-known member
2012
Vasilevskiy #19
Subban #24
Dansk #31
Stolarz #45
Korpisalo #62
Altshuller #69
Gillies #75
Driedger #76
Paterson #80
Murray #83
Andersen #87
Maguire #113
Hellebuyck #130
Kiviaho #144
Tremblay #146
Olson #159
Ullmark #163
Brassard #166
Mazanec #179
Langhamer #184
Philips #190
Whitney #191
Tomkins #199
Kostenko #203
2013
Fucale #36
Jarry #44
Desrosiers #54
Comrie #59
Martin #63
McAdam #70
Hogberg #78
Cowley #92
Saros #99
Williams #106
Bergvik #117
Gudlevskis #124
Peterson #129
Bartosak #146
Madsen #162
Burke #163
Skapski #170
Bibeau #172
Belanger #200
Juvonen #203
Brodeur #208
2014
McDonald #34
Demko #36
Nedjelovic #37
Vanacek #39
Halverson #59
Johansson #61
Merzlikins #76
Sorokin #78
Husso #94
Soderstrom #95
Kahkonen #109
Nagelvoort #111
Moran #115
Shesterkin #118
Perry #136
Dillon #150
Pajpach #174
Hawkey #177
Nalimov #179
Fagerblom #182
Bouchard #183
I'll do more later but....they're right about goalies.
Vasilevskiy #19
Subban #24
Dansk #31
Stolarz #45
Korpisalo #62
Altshuller #69
Gillies #75
Driedger #76
Paterson #80
Murray #83
Andersen #87
Maguire #113
Hellebuyck #130
Kiviaho #144
Tremblay #146
Olson #159
Ullmark #163
Brassard #166
Mazanec #179
Langhamer #184
Philips #190
Whitney #191
Tomkins #199
Kostenko #203
2013
Fucale #36
Jarry #44
Desrosiers #54
Comrie #59
Martin #63
McAdam #70
Hogberg #78
Cowley #92
Saros #99
Williams #106
Bergvik #117
Gudlevskis #124
Peterson #129
Bartosak #146
Madsen #162
Burke #163
Skapski #170
Bibeau #172
Belanger #200
Juvonen #203
Brodeur #208
2014
McDonald #34
Demko #36
Nedjelovic #37
Vanacek #39
Halverson #59
Johansson #61
Merzlikins #76
Sorokin #78
Husso #94
Soderstrom #95
Kahkonen #109
Nagelvoort #111
Moran #115
Shesterkin #118
Perry #136
Dillon #150
Pajpach #174
Hawkey #177
Nalimov #179
Fagerblom #182
Bouchard #183
I'll do more later but....they're right about goalies.
Volcanologist
Well-known member
They're right about goalies, but at the same time they can't even produce a decent backup. starter? lol, let's not crazy here.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
You have to be willing to trust your scouting department to evaluate goalie prospects too. If you don't want to spend a 1st rounder on a goalie at the draft because of how volatile they are, sure, I get it. But the influence of a good goalie on your organization is so outsized, that from the 2nd round onward, just take the fucking goalie if your scouts like him.
