• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

TML? More like FML, amirite? Yet Another Off Season Thread

It's risky, but it might come down to how well the rest of the team is stacked.

If we have a lot of good young players at every position, I'm more inclined to take a goalie in the first round if he projects as elite.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Actually, I'm curious, how often has a high first round goalie pick - say 15th or earlier - busted?
Click to expand...
Askarov
Spencer Knight
Jack Campbell
Jon Bernier
Carey Price
Riku Helenius
Al Montoya
Fleury
Lehtonen
Dubnyk
Pascal Leclaire
Dan Blackburn
Dipietro
Brent Krahn

I think that's all of the top 15 picks since 2000. The only slam dunks seem to be the top 5 guys, but even those were hit or miss.
 
Preston said:
Askarov
Spencer Knight
Jack Campbell
Jon Bernier
Carey Price
Riku Helenius
Al Montoya
Fleury
Lehtonen
Dubnyk
Pascal Leclaire
Dan Blackburn
Dipietro
Brent Krahn

I think that's all of the top 15 picks since 2000. The only slam dunks seem to be the top 5 guys, but even those were hit or miss.
Click to expand...
That's not a terrible list. Is Dipietro still getting paid by NYI on that 15 year deal or what was it?
 
The 16-30 list has more star power. But in fairness more goalies were taken too so the hit rate may not have been better.

But Varlamov, Vas, Rask is a pretty good top 3 over the 21 drafts since 2000. A lotttttt of busts though. A lot.
 
No. It's not a list with a majority of hits, but there are two very successful names on there, and a few others that have had themselves a nice career.
 
Disasters:
Brent Krahn
Blackburn
Leclaire
Montoya
Helenius

Decent 1bs:
Bernier
Dubnyk
Campbell (took him like 10 years)
Dipietro (at his best he was a 1b, but was mostly a disaster; I'm being generous here)

Very good some years, injury issues didn't help and maybe prevented true stardom?:
Lehtonen

Stars:
Price
Fleury

Unknowns:
Askarov
Knight

For top 15 picks, it's a shit list. 1b at best from picks 6-15 for the last 21 drafts.
 
Last edited:
seems as random as any other position...the thing with goalies is that have to be real gud to stick. The 65th best player in the league is quite good...the 65th best goalie is unemployed.

The Habs got a good one at #5, much better player than their recent #3 picks (Chucky, KK)

So what's my point? Sorry, don't have one.
 
Your point is that the reason doesn't matter. Goalie bust rate for top 15 picks (and probably all picks) is higher than for forwards and D. Your Habs example is like me using my grandfather living till 90 despite being a daily smoker since 10 years old as proof that cigarettes are healthy as fuck. Doesn't work!!!!
 
Preston said:
Your point is that the reason doesn't matter. Goalie bust rate for top 15 picks (and probably all picks) is higher than for forwards and D. Your Habs example is like me using my grandfather living till 90 despite being a daily smoker since 10 years old as proof that cigarettes are healthy as fuck. Doesn't work!!!!
Click to expand...

meh

your excel sheet has a lot of holes....(it's not even an excel sheet but I'm being kind because it's a sunny Friday)
 
Preston said:
Your point is that the reason doesn't matter. Goalie bust rate for top 15 picks (and probably all picks) is higher than for forwards and D. Your Habs example is like me using my grandfather living till 90 despite being a daily smoker since 10 years old as proof that cigarettes are healthy as fuck. Doesn't work!!!!
Click to expand...
1655493743182.png

Oh now smoking isn't healthy supposedly.
 
CH1 said:
meh

your excel sheet has a lot of holes....(it's not even an excel sheet but I'm being kind because it's a sunny Friday)
Click to expand...
Let's do from 2000-2009 and use >99gp as being a legit NHLer.

Success rate for picks 1-5 is 100% for forwards, D and goalie.
for 6-14: 78% D, 77% F, 67% G
for 15-30: 62% D, 71% F, 33% G

Granted, this is flawed because guys like Al Montoya, DiPietro, and Pascal Leclaire are considered a success in this since teams are way more likely to shoehorn a high pick goalie, destroying their future for years as he becomes the only plan. But the result is clear as day.
 
not surprising...there are less gigs available to show their "success"
 
CH1 said:
not surprising...there are less gigs available to show their "success"
Click to expand...
Reason don't matter tho. Point is you pick a forward high and your odds of drafting an impact player are far higher than if you pick a goalie. That's the only point here.

Once you get to the later rounds the percentages actually skew more towards goalies being better value.
 
The trend of picking goalies high is obviously out these days.

I wonder if we'll ever see another goalie picked first overall in our lifetimes.
 
Actually your reason doesn't matter. The avg composition of a roster = 59% F, 32% D, 9% G
Players drafted by position = 57% F, 32% D, 11% G

So you'd expect goalies to "fail" a little more often but not as significant as it looks in the first round. It doesn't work that way tho... 1st rounders on goalies have been poor value compared to D and F. In the later rounds the trend reverses to some degree and goalies become equal or greater value than both.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top