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The New Division

Why are you only comparing him to players from the highest scoring era. Obviously that doesnt work.

A much better example of a young guy flaming out in this context is someone like Bobby Ryan.
 
What I've learned so far.

Despite Kadri playing at a 70+ point pace last year, he's unlikely to hit again.
Despite Ryan not playing at a 70+ point pace last year, he's likely to hit this year.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Alexei Zhamnov 111 point pace in 94-95. Same age. Hands dipped in gold. Never had a season like that again.
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I hadn't bothered to fact check your shit, but I decided to give it a whirl.

Zhamnov was 2 years older than Kadri, and coming off of 2 straight PPG+ seasons before he had his 65 point in 48 game shortened season. He then put up another PPG season after that before he started to decline due to injury and a general decline in league scoring.

Renberg also entered the shortened season after a PPG rookie season, then the camp following his PPG+ shortened season, he suffered an abdominal injury that ended up being a sports hernia that required surgery. He returned from the surgery, and returned to his previous scoring rates until he started suffering abdominal pains again...that he played through, but turned out to be a torn abdominal muscle that he tore right off of the pelvic bone. He was a shell of his former self after that.

Your wishful thinking is awesome though, the more the Sens fans are reduced coming up with bullshit like this, the more sure I become that Kadri is the real deal. What you're doing here, is rooted entirely in fear.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
Zhamnov played at 70+ point levels multiple times in his career.

What does Zhamnov scoring at an ungodly 111 point level in one season have to do with anything? Who is arguing that Kadri is going to be a 110 point player?
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Saying that a player, even a young one, can have a career year in a shortened season isn't a terribly hard notion to grasp.

There is a significant difference between a 111 point season and a 70+ point season.
 
leafman101 said:
Well there is a massive gulf. There is a massive gulf with the top players in the league and everyone else. Thats how they are so dominant.

Max Pac is ACTUALLY a 35/70 guy and he isn't anywhere near as good as Kessel, and I hight doubt you'd hear reasonable Habs fans say otherwise.
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I absolutely have no problem saying that Kessel is definitely a better offensive player than MaxPac. Due to that he's the better player. I think Max makes up a little ground due to his style of game... but there's little doubt that Kessel is the better player.

Personally I'd say Kessel>Max>>Ryan=JVR
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Saying that a player, even a young one, can have a career year in a shortened season isn't a terribly hard notion to grasp.

There is a significant difference between a 111 point season and a 70+ point season.
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If you disregard everything Kadri has ever done in his hockey career, if you disregard his draft position, if you disregard his skillset -- yes, it's possible Kadri has peaked at 22.
 
I love how selective he is though...

Peter Forsberg was a 21 yr old rookie in 93-94, scored 50 points in 47 games before going apeshit the following season with 116 points in 82 games...but that can't be a Kadri comparable, of course not.

Alexei Yashin, 21 yr old PPG performance in the lockout shortened season and despite being a complete bitch, went on to play at a ~PPG rate over the next 6 seasons in Ottawa. Nope, can't be a Kadri comparable.

Only the failures can.

Your fear is delicious.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
It is true. If not, what other season did he play at a 111 point pace? And, no, the season afterward he did not unless you've got that bigot koreaboy doing your math for you.
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This is a bigot kb kind of argument.

The guy had four straight PPG seasons. He's not an example of why Kadri can't repeat his 70+ point pace performance. He's the ****ing opposite. Surely you can see that.
 
I will help Igor out. Jonathan Cheechoo is probably the best modern day example. Of course, he put up that season playing with one of the best passing C's in the league J. Thornton when scoring was at his highest just after the 04 lockout.
 
Did some digging on Ryan:

2008/09: GP: 64 G: 31 A: 26 Pts: 57
2009/10: GP: 81 G: 35 A: 29 Pts: 64
2010/11: GP: 82 G: 34 A: 37 Pts: 71
2011/12: GP: 82 G: 31 A: 26 Pts: 51
*Shortened season be damned.

Looks like he can be counte on as a 30 goal scorer, even when he has been thrown to the media circus by the Ducks looking to move him.

Here's Kessel:

2008/09: GP: 70 G: 36 A: 24 Pts: 60
2009/10: GP: 70 G: 30 A: 25 Pts: 55
2010/11: GP: 82 G: 32 A: 32 Pts: 64
2011/12: GP: 82 G: 37 A: 45 Pts: 82
Kessel took a big jump in 11/12 and backed it up last year. He's approaching 40/45 or 40/50 numbers (and more with a better center). I'd say that Kessel's numbers look to be in a class that Ryan has yet to sniff. However, Ryan may get closer this year as the main go-to guy if Spezza stays healthy.
 
PlayerToBeNamedLater said:
I will help Igor out. Jonathan Cheechoo is probably the best modern day example. Of course, he put up that season playing with one of the best passing C's in the league J. Thornton when scoring was at his highest just after the 04 lockout.
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That's a little better.

He was 26 when he did that though.
 
Habspatrol said:
I absolutely have no problem saying that Kessel is definitely a better offensive player than MaxPac. Due to that he's the better player. I think Max makes up a little ground due to his style of game... but there's little doubt that Kessel is the better player.

Personally I'd say Kessel>Max>>Ryan=JVR
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I'd go with a straight Kessel > Max > Ryan > JVR. I'm more sold on Ryan and less on JVR than everyone else here.

In terms of next year, I'd probably peg them for Kessel 80ish pts, Max 65-70, Ryan 60-65, JVR 50-55. I also don't think Kessel is amazingly more awesome than Max or Ryan - I wouldn't be shocked to see either of those 2 have a really lucky season and put up better numbers than Kessel. Maybe not this year, but in the next 2-3 years. I'd still peg Kessel's average pace to be decently higher than the others, but he's not significantly far enough ahead that they couldn't catch him.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
Saying that a player, even a young one, can have a career year in a shortened season isn't a terribly hard notion to grasp.

There is a significant difference between a 111 point season and a 70+ point season.
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You know that there was a general decline in scoring around that time as well, right? A 111 point season in 94-95 would have equaled a 97 point season in 97-98 just when equalizing for league scoring.
 
MindzEye said:
I love how selective he is though...

Peter Forsberg was a 21 yr old rookie in 93-94, scored 50 points in 47 games before going apeshit the following season with 116 points in 82 games...but that can't be a Kadri comparable, of course not.

Alexei Yashin, 21 yr old PPG performance in the lockout shortened season and despite being a complete bitch, went on to play at a ~PPG rate over the next 6 seasons in Ottawa. Nope, can't be a Kadri comparable.

Only the failures can.

Your fear is delicious.
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It's not about being selective. It is about demonstrating that shortened seasons which start late are not necessarily representative of a player's ability.

Note that the two players you brought up never played a game in the AHL.
 
corksens said:
But to say he isn't comparable to Kessel means he is a 55 point player.

Because there isn't much of a difference between a guy who gets 35/70 and a guy that gets 35/82.

Certainly not a big enough gulf to suggest the players arent in the same class.
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12 points isn't a big difference? That's like close to a 20% difference.
 
TheMightyIgor said:
It's not about being selective. It is about demonstrating that shortened seasons which start late are not necessarily representative of a player's ability.

Note that the two players you brought up never played a game in the AHL.
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Curious, why are we noting this? What relevance does this have?
 
MindzEye said:
You know that there was a general decline in scoring around that time as well, right? A 111 point season in 94-95 would have equaled a 97 point season in 97-98 just when equalizing for league scoring.
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Zhamnov finished third in league scoring during the shortened season. What was the next highest he ever finished in league scoring?
 
UWHabs said:
I'd go with a straight Kessel > Max > Ryan > JVR. I'm more sold on Ryan and less on JVR than everyone else here.

In terms of next year, I'd probably peg them for Kessel 80ish pts, Max 65-70, Ryan 60-65, JVR 50-55. I also don't think Kessel is amazingly more awesome than Max or Ryan - I wouldn't be shocked to see either of those 2 have a really lucky season and put up better numbers than Kessel. Maybe not this year, but in the next 2-3 years. I'd still peg Kessel's average pace to be decently higher than the others, but he's not significantly far enough ahead that they couldn't catch him.
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On the flip side though, Kessel seems to be trending towards being a 90 point player. He produced at an 87 point pace last season with a 55 point winger and 50 point centre. If JVR takes a step forward this season, and Kessel gets any sort of PP time with the much more talented (than Bozak) Kadri, Kessel might take a solid run at 90+. Nobody else in the conversation has the talent to even get a sniff of 90.
 
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