OK ... everybody in the press who's going to write a preview has done so by now, so here's a few thoughts from me:
Matchups ... again
Carolina will likely keep things fairly stable, as they have for most of the season. Any lineup shifts will be minor as they once again look to leverage their skilled depth. So, look for Necas and Kotkaniemi again on the fourth line, joined by Martinook if he's healthy and either Stepan or Lorentz if he's not. Given the way he finished the Boston series, I'd expect Domi to line up with Trocheck and Turbo on the third line again. That flipping of Domi and Necas just spreads the playmaking across the lines like butter on your biscuit, and it will challenge NYR's bottom six to pay attention to defensive details.
Gallant on the other hand, might be forced to adjust a bit. He finished the Pens series with his "kid line" (Chytil centering Lafreniere and Kakko) playing 3rd line minutes and the return of Tyler Motte gave the 4th line a big boost ... seeing as how he can actually play. But he's going to have to expose that line to either Trocheck or Aho's crew in Games 1 and 2, and that seems like a decidedly bad idea. Chytil has always played pretty well against Carolina, but as currently built that line isn't exactly long on the technical defensive stuff. Carolina tends to prefer strength on strength, so look for Aho to start out on Zibanejad's line and for Staal to draw Strome and Panarin. Keep an eye out for Andrew Copp, who has really been a big deadline get for the Rangers. He's defensively responsible and he plays a big boy game along the boards on the forecheck. Plus, Gallant has shifted him up and down a bit to provide a spark. Usually that means shifting him up to the top line, but in this case he might be a guy who could stabilize the 3rd line if that matchup gets weird. Lafreniere has swapped with him on occasion.
Depth on D ...
Neither team wants their 3rd pairing doing much heavy lifting, but Ian Cole is a significant upgrade over the rest of the guys playing that role on both teams. Carolina might look to re-insert Bear at this point, as Smith's physical push-back won't be as big a need in this round. NYR on the other hand, shelters Braun and Schneider as much as humanly possible. With K'Andre Miller really emerging, the other two units pair up pretty well to one degree or another. The Rangers guys control play with the puck well, but aren't quite up to Carolina's level when it comes to chance suppression. But they move the puck well and allow the Rangers to counter-attack, which is what they've done well against Carolina the last two seasons.
Goal ...
Look, Raanta isn't in Shesterkin's class, but he gets asked to do FAR less for this team than his counterpart. It should be about a wash IF Carolina can generate the shot volume they normally do against New York. Plus, Freddie would even things out a bit ... but I'm not holding my breath on that.
Special Teams ...
It's tempting to call this a wash, but as always it's gonna be a big key. NYR have serious power play pop, finishing 4th in the NHL in the regular season, and can load a top unit in ways that will feel strangely familiar to a team coming off of a series with Boston. When rolling, Carolina's PP is in the same class, but as we all know, they haven't been exactly what you'd call rolling for a while. The kill is generally a big advantage for Carolina, but the Rangers are also a Top 10 team on the kill. For my money, THIS is where the Rangers can make up for their lack of depth against Carolina. Watch the power play early. If NYR gets on a roll and gains confidence against that Carolina kill, then that's going to be a good indicator of the tone of this series.
Bottom line ... I like the Canes in the series, but I think it's gonna be a dogfight. Again.
