2024-25 Canes Miscellaneous Thread
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We’re 7 seasons into the longest sustained period of success the organization has had in the NHL. But the trauma inflicted on us starting at the end of Mo 2.0, through Muller and Peters still impacts us.Welcome to being a Caniac.
O'Reilly was really good last season in Nashville, but I think they've used him incorrectly this year. He's slowed down and took a bit to figure out how to be effective without his high end speed, but they're over-matching him now and it's all sort of too much. As a second or third line option who isn't asked to pair up with the other teams' top lines I think he's still got a little bit left in the tank. The issue would be the two year tail on the contract and how much he slows down from here. Hard to say. If he was on an expiring contract then I'd be all over that given Carolina's issues at center.
As it is, I think you make a run at Brock Nelson first if you're Tulsky. He's a pure rental, can absolutely play in this system and is a proven playoff dog. Is he slower than you'd like? Yes. Is he a major upgrade over KK? Also yes. Would Canes fans bitch about and consider it too low-key? Probably ... but who gives a crap?
I guess. It certainly impacts the specific slice of the fandom represented by this group. But overall, I'm less convinced. I just think this is an immature, insecure fan base overall. Or at least that's how they present online. We just lack the swagger of over-stuffed, unsupported confidence that we see from other fan bases ... including markets like Nashville and Columbus who have never really done anything to speak of and lack the excuse of being from New York. It might just come from the RTP area being so transient. So many transplants, so many divided loyalties.
Fayettenamcanesfan
Well-known member
My point was that contract offer, IF TRUE, is right in line with what he was asking from Colorado and they wouldn’t pay. It was reported he wanted 8 years 13.5-14 million. Well, if he was willing to sign in Colorado for that much then the only excuse he’d have for not signing is he doesn’t want to be here.
As far as trade. IMO they WILL trade him if he doesn’t sign by trade deadline. They can not let him walk for nothing.
perfectstormhits
Well-known member
LeBrun discusses Rantanen and Canes and the trade deadline.
View: https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1894094929363677259
View: https://x.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1894094929363677259
TheBigKahuna
Well-known member
Reports out of hockey Canada are claiming he already turned don't the offer and said he had no intention of signing here. I don't believe it, but it wouldn't shock me either.
cmaleski2
Well-known member
If that offer is real, as noted, this would come down to whether or not Rantanen is willing to commit to staying here or not.
There are multiple possible reasons why Rantanen would not sign with the Canes
1) He just really has no interest in playing here.
OR (AND?)
2) Now that Rantanen is no longer negotiating with the Avs to stay, does his agent (and Rantanen) feel the lure of unrestricted free agency, with a big cap jump for next season, is just too close and tantalizing to not take advantage of? I know the argument is that only the Canes can give Rantanen 8 years, but we also know that is only sort of true because any team that really wants Rantanen badly enough will trade for his rights before July 1st to eliminate that concern. Also, if Rantanen doesn't have his rights traded, assuming he easily gets a UFA bidding war going, he might not care that the resulting fortune is spread over only 7 years (instead of 8).
I'm still saying 50/50 on Rantanen being traded by the Canes before the deadline. Even if the Canes really did offer Rantanen 8x$13.5 million, it wouldn't surprise me if Rantanen, with the Canes offering that and not the Avs, decides that "I'm so close to UFA status, why not play it out this season and let a full fledged bidding war happen where I get to pick where I sign for 7 years? Its not like there is any risk that Rantanen doesn't find anyone willing to give him a 7 year contract for $13.5+, $14.0+, $15??? million AAV. He would have multiple offers from multiple teams and gets to pick his home for (possibly) 7 seasons (or maybe 8 if the Canes allow his agent to discuss contracts with other teams). What is the real risk for Rantanen, other than a career threatening injury before July 1st?
I don't feel great about the Canes chances of signing Rantanen at all. I also don't like the idea of letting him walk as a UFA.
There are multiple possible reasons why Rantanen would not sign with the Canes
1) He just really has no interest in playing here.
OR (AND?)
2) Now that Rantanen is no longer negotiating with the Avs to stay, does his agent (and Rantanen) feel the lure of unrestricted free agency, with a big cap jump for next season, is just too close and tantalizing to not take advantage of? I know the argument is that only the Canes can give Rantanen 8 years, but we also know that is only sort of true because any team that really wants Rantanen badly enough will trade for his rights before July 1st to eliminate that concern. Also, if Rantanen doesn't have his rights traded, assuming he easily gets a UFA bidding war going, he might not care that the resulting fortune is spread over only 7 years (instead of 8).
I'm still saying 50/50 on Rantanen being traded by the Canes before the deadline. Even if the Canes really did offer Rantanen 8x$13.5 million, it wouldn't surprise me if Rantanen, with the Canes offering that and not the Avs, decides that "I'm so close to UFA status, why not play it out this season and let a full fledged bidding war happen where I get to pick where I sign for 7 years? Its not like there is any risk that Rantanen doesn't find anyone willing to give him a 7 year contract for $13.5+, $14.0+, $15??? million AAV. He would have multiple offers from multiple teams and gets to pick his home for (possibly) 7 seasons (or maybe 8 if the Canes allow his agent to discuss contracts with other teams). What is the real risk for Rantanen, other than a career threatening injury before July 1st?
I don't feel great about the Canes chances of signing Rantanen at all. I also don't like the idea of letting him walk as a UFA.
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cmaleski2
Well-known member
There would be other considerations though, including whether or not the Canes are willing to give as much of that contract as signing bonuses or not (certainly other rich big market teams would).
So let's take 8 years $14 million from the Canes. Maximized signing bonuses (which ends up meaning most of the money is taxed as NC income). Let's jump that NC income tax rate down to 4% (which is just about where it will be soon).
$112million - ($112 million * 4%) = $107,520,000 million
Vegas swoops in and offers 7 years with an AAV of $15 million ($105 million). No state income tax, so its $105 million.
(Yes I know its not that simple and players pay taxes to different jurisdictions when they play games out of state, etc.. However, when the values of contracts are almost fully paid as signing bonuses, it does matter where the player signs as far as state taxes).
I know that just about all of us cannot relate to a pro athlete being offered 9 figures over 7 or 8 years. But if I'm getting 9 figures overall, I would rather be able to pick my team and leave a few million on the table to do so. In Rantanen's case, he might actually not even have to leave money on the table because the Canes would likely trade him (either before the deadline or before July 1st so another team could give him 8 years).
I don't think the Canes being the only team to be able to offer 8 years RIGHT NOW improves the Canes bargaining position at all.
So let's take 8 years $14 million from the Canes. Maximized signing bonuses (which ends up meaning most of the money is taxed as NC income). Let's jump that NC income tax rate down to 4% (which is just about where it will be soon).
$112million - ($112 million * 4%) = $107,520,000 million
Vegas swoops in and offers 7 years with an AAV of $15 million ($105 million). No state income tax, so its $105 million.
(Yes I know its not that simple and players pay taxes to different jurisdictions when they play games out of state, etc.. However, when the values of contracts are almost fully paid as signing bonuses, it does matter where the player signs as far as state taxes).
I know that just about all of us cannot relate to a pro athlete being offered 9 figures over 7 or 8 years. But if I'm getting 9 figures overall, I would rather be able to pick my team and leave a few million on the table to do so. In Rantanen's case, he might actually not even have to leave money on the table because the Canes would likely trade him (either before the deadline or before July 1st so another team could give him 8 years).
I don't think the Canes being the only team to be able to offer 8 years RIGHT NOW improves the Canes bargaining position at all.
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I'm not picking on you specifically (because I've seen and heard that sentiment a LOT), but that first part is a very reductive view. There's plenty of other factors that go in to evaluating the same money in different markets beyond number of years, total cash, and contract structure. For example, NC isn't a no income tax State like some NHL markets and that factors in, especially at those dollar amounts. Likewise, Canadian taxes definitely factor into offers from those markets. On the value added side, there's also the chance to make more secondary money in bigger media markets. A $12 million annual compensation level isn't equal across the NYC, Toronto, Raleigh, Denver, Nashville and Miami markets ... just to pluck a few from the various scenarios.
I tell you guys what. Until this gets done, I'm not going to continue wasting time and energy on the issue of Rantanen's contract. Until he's not, he's a Hurricane and whatever happens, happens. Anybody who wants to get all worked up over this stuff now can knock themselves out. I've contributed all I care to contribute to this conversation.
polarbare
Well-known member
Since we have some CBA knowledgeable people here, an interrogative.
When Nikishin comes over (I know this isn't assured but...) he'll be on an ELC yes? So max value is something like $3M after bonuses, etc?
I keep seeing people through out $3-5M a year for him and I didn't think that was possible, but due to age and other factors I'm not sure.
When Nikishin comes over (I know this isn't assured but...) he'll be on an ELC yes? So max value is something like $3M after bonuses, etc?
I keep seeing people through out $3-5M a year for him and I didn't think that was possible, but due to age and other factors I'm not sure.
StormChaserBH
Well-known member
NoMich
Well-known member
My Thomas Friedman/Colin Cowherd style half-baked thoughts:
If homeboy wants a huge payday with anyone besides the Hurricanes, he needs to pick his scoring up and show everyone that he doesn't actually need Nathan MacKinnon on his line to score that much.
Also, if it's true that he has no intention of signing here, then his agent/him need to STFU and stop ruining any leverage that the Hurricanes have to get the best returns on him. I mean, really, what did the Hurricanes do to him to deserve that kind of treatment?
If homeboy wants a huge payday with anyone besides the Hurricanes, he needs to pick his scoring up and show everyone that he doesn't actually need Nathan MacKinnon on his line to score that much.
Also, if it's true that he has no intention of signing here, then his agent/him need to STFU and stop ruining any leverage that the Hurricanes have to get the best returns on him. I mean, really, what did the Hurricanes do to him to deserve that kind of treatment?
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THIS I'll talk about. For a vehicle that badly needs personality, I think including Jarvis as a featured player is brilliant. This league's best players have long tended to be among their most boring, but the league has a lot of characters that can offer up some interesting personality-driven fun. Jarvy is that guy. And thank Christmas he's signed long term before whatever buzz this thing ends up giving him picks up steam.
Fayettenamcanesfan
Well-known member
I agree but to be fair, if the canes are shopping him at the deadline they already have no leverage. Everyone knows the teams intention was to extend him and if they’re offering him up a month and a half later what leverage do they really have? Hopefully he signs because if he doesn’t I don’t see teams lining up to give us any great nhl level assets that will help us win now. Which means they will likely keep him and swing their shot this season. Which would be worst case scenario. Back to back seasons of getting nothing out of 2 really really good trade and not sign free agents.
Not trying to be negative but it is a very possible outcome. It is what it is. I’m hoping the noise is just that, noise.
Fayettenamcanesfan
Well-known member
Yea. That’s good stuff right there.
cmaleski2
Well-known member
Assuming Nikishin signs an entry level deal that starts this season (or next), it will be a 2 year entry level deal. It will have a max annual salary (base + signing bonuses) of $925k (that will be the AAV. he was drafted in 2020, those max entry level salary+signing bonus were set in the MOA). Then the max entry level bonuses are $3,500,000 per season. The MOA agreed to a few year back jumped the maximums for entry level performance bonuses upward.
The thing is though, those entry level performance bonuses have to have some real meat to them (ie you cannot say he hits a game played bonus if he plays just 1 game). Also, if both sides are going to burn an entry level year by having the contract start this year, then he will have joined so late that he really won't hit any entry level bonus for that burned season.
I'm going to snip this from the CBA found on nhlpa.com. This is entry level contract performance bonuses for Dmen:
Nikishin I would think would almost certainly will be offered the full $3.5 million in entry level performance bonuses. But he won't cash all of those. The bulk of the $3.5 million max per season are those $2.5 million in B bonuses. Nikishin would have to be exceptional to cash in any B Bonus, that is not something that entry level Dmen generally accomplish.
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