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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

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Wayward DP said:
buyer beware:


View: https://x.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1798003604185653587
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Fwiw, I think Dom's model is wrong here. He spent all year carrying the heavies for both teams, in Calgary his most common linemates were the corpse of Huberdeau and Mangiapane (who other than 1 good year appears to be a 15 goal 3rd winger), and then in Vancouver he was pushed down the lineup and spent most of his time as 3C other than when EP was shuffled to JT Miller's line.

Super low SH% by his standard, super low OISH% by his standard. Get him away from carrying the water for bad defensive teams and some skill on his flanks and he's a 2.00-2.50 P/60 centre again with good nerdies in hard usage.
 
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Doms model factors in usage now though.
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Dunno how it arrives at a +1 defensive rating for a centre who takes 20+ defensive faceoffs per 60 with good xGArel against heavies and a -1 for a mostly winger who has bad xGArel numbers in much lighter matchups then.

I wouldn't pay him $8 mill long term.
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That's fair, I don't think it's going to take that. Horvat was coming off of a 38 goal season and got 8.5 last year. Naz coming off of an 87 point season took 7x7 (though Naz was 2 yrs older, but still). It's free agency so someone might do something dumb, but I figure he's either going 1 yr show me in a good situation to put up numbers or it will be a 5-6yr x 6-6.5 type deal which could easily turn out to be a bargain.

Could suck if the last 2 years has been decline though and not just hard usage in a shit situation, sure.

I still think Dom's model stands a really good chance of being wrong here.
 
MindzEye said:
Dunno how it arrives at a +1 defensive rating for a centre who takes 20+ defensive faceoffs per 60 with good xGArel against heavies and a -1 for a mostly winger who has bad xGArel numbers in much lighter matchups then.
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Because his actual performance this year was really bad. The usage adjusts him to a pretty good defensive player in spite of a 44% xGF% and a rel 0.11 xGA/60 (-0.2 defensive Doms). He was slightly better than Kampf this year (0.15 rel xGA/60, -0.9 Doms), but his usage makes him a +1, whereas Kampf gets adjusted down to -2 by usage.

Similarly EW had him at a -9 xGAR this year, and a -1,5 xEVDef.

And the model doesn't say he's horrible, just that he'll probably get overpaid because he is viewed as a top line center and he hasn't been one in 3 years. If you could get him $6-7 mill for 2-3 years, or $5 mill on a long term deal it makes sense, and he may even exceed that value.
 
jesus christ.

That's a high ask for a dude who is 25 and had 53 points last year....and is due for a pay cheque.

Or put another way

5v5 P/60

Robertson: 2.36
Knies: 1.98
Necas: 1.77

Buyer fucking beware.
 
Despite what Friedman is reporting, I don't think Canes really have much leverage. They have other pressing files to deal with ASAP, and it seems pretty clear that Necas no longer is a fit there.
 
CH1 said:
Despite what Friedman is reporting, I don't think Canes really have much leverage. They have other pressing files to deal with ASAP, and it seems pretty clear that Necas no longer is a fit there.
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They should be looking to take advantage of a dumb organization who has a few underutilized young players that are probably both better than Necas.

such as

Robertson + Lilly for Necas.
 
MindzEye said:
jesus christ.

That's a high ask for a dude who is 25 and had 53 points last year....and is due for a pay cheque.

Or put another way

5v5 P/60

Robertson: 2.36
Knies: 1.98
Necas: 1.77

Buyer fucking beware.
Click to expand...
It's interesting Necas playoff struggles are simply not mentioned.
 
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