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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Preston said:
Well he was never worth 11m beyond his first season with the leafs. But yes he's finished as a #1c.

He's a pp mooch now mostly. ME presented a lovely argument that his 5 on 5 game declined horribly.

They need to move him. That's all they need to get rid of this summer.
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Hes not even a good PP mooch either and is a huge reason we struggle on entries. Opposition PK's funnel the entry to the matthews side and then tries to hold the line against matthews, forcing him to use the pressure release guy on the boards. Look at how quickly they collapse on Tavares vs when it happens on the other side with Willy and they have to maintain space.

Throw into that his lack of footspeed making him a shit puck retrieval guy and its not a great package for the PP.
 
I’m just using Dom as a possible reference point. I think he can easily be worth 6.5-7M.
 
Dom's model weighs his pp impact far too high. He does not drive the pp, and if anything holds it back. 5 on 5 his production rates were worse than bobby McMann, Knies and similar to Holmberg. Despite better linemates than all three for most of the year.

But that's a long widely known issue with Dom's model.
 
Is it an issue, if he refuse to tweak it? It’s not like he can’t modify his own formula
 
CH1 said:
Is it an issue, if he refuse to tweak it?
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I don't know how you even tweak it. JT scores a bunch of pp tap ins on a damn good powerplay, how do you determine his impact is worse than Matthews or Nylander's when the pp unit barely changes all year? Do you adjust for their roles on the pp or some shit? Idk it's hard without doing subjective analysis there.
 
Or do you see a pp that didn't miss a beat when Bert replaced him and somehow account for JT not being a key piece? I'm not sure how it can be done tbh.

I do think there's value to being an excellent powerplay guy. I just don't think JT is that anymore despite what Dom's model says.
 
Preston said:
I don't know how you even tweak it. JT scores a bunch of pp tap ins on a damn good powerplay, how do you determine his impact is worse than Matthews or Nylander's when the pp unit barely changes all year? Do you adjust for their roles on the pp or some shit? Idk it's hard without doing subjective analysis there.
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Gotcha. That’s missing.

Ie The guys at Pro Football Focus grind tape and assign value on every play based on whether it was difficult or not (basically above/below expected) so tip in goals wouldn’t move the needle as much
 
Preston said:
I don't know how you even tweak it. JT scores a bunch of pp tap ins on a damn good powerplay, how do you determine his impact is worse than Matthews or Nylander's when the pp unit barely changes all year? Do you adjust for their roles on the pp or some shit? Idk it's hard without doing subjective analysis there.
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Tap ins? What? I don't recall him scoring any tap ins, not to mention a bunch.

Every goal is a deflection or a wrister.
 
Preston said:
Do you think he drove the pp this year?
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I don't think he ever did.

He was always the guy standing in front of the net, not taking the pass to enter the zone. Until this year.

And his PP numbers plummeted from last year, when he had literally 2x more PP goals and assists. Some PP merchant.

From 71% of his points on the PP last year down to just 45% of his points on the PP this year.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I don't think he ever did.

He was always the guy standing in front of the net, not taking the pass to enter the zone. Until this year.

And his PP numbers plummeted from last year, when he had literally 2x more goals and assists. Some PP merchant.

From 71% of his points on the PP last year down to just 45% of his points on the PP this year.
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Exactly he was very bad on the pp this year. And his scoring rate at 5 on 5 took a sharp nosedive as well. Glad we can agree.

So I'll repeat: if he's on pp2 next year, it could get ugly for him. Take away 15 of his 20 pp points last year and you're looking at a 50 point player; we'll say 55 points because he had some poor luck. Quite good as a guy on the second unit but not worth 11m or even 9 or whatever Dom has him at.
 
Everyone's entitled to an off year. This was his. He probably never went 10 games without a point at any time in his career until that random stretch in the middle of the season, and then he picked right back up and was getting his usual number of points.

The PP was crap all around, and it wasn't just because of him.
 
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