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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Nope. They just have to work around these two for a year. If Marner won't sign something fair now, then just walk him to free agency and see if he'll pack up and leave Matty and the Leafs for an extra $1.5M per.
 
axlsalinger said:
I mean Ullmark will make $5M this year. If you want to re-sign him he'll want at least that much and likely more on a long-term deal. And Boston is not going to trade him to a division rival for peanuts. Probably a 1st and/or a couple of good prospects.

I do think he's the best option, but he certainly will not be the cheapest.
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I imagine boston will want a quality NHL center in return.
 
As for the variance thing.. Plenty of excellent statistical analysis out there showing that you won't find much consistency or predictability in the goaltending position compared to forwards or d. It's wild to argue otherwise. But yes, there are a small few that are better and more predictable than others, though that doesn't always mean they're consistently good or even above average. 2 of the good ones are available. I don't mind going for them if the price is right but I'm not gonna blow my load for them either because they will cost significant $$$ to extend.

This does not include the 23-24 season - Kuemper, Vasi, Saros, Allen (the former consistent rocks) had a bit of an off year so that would have been reflected in this analysis, but still.. It's a decent snapshot for a 4 year sample (5 years+ may be a bit optimistic to expect true consistency from goaltenders).

1718052893846.png

And yes, paying big bucks to goalies on outlier seasons can be quite an adventure. I wouldn't do that either:

1718052928869.png

On the other hand, some can be fairly consistent, relatively speaking (they're still goalies after all and can fall off a cliff at any point). Gibson is consistently average, the others are quite good in this 4 year sample. Though, as mentioned, Saros and Vasi fell off a bit this year which is not reflected here:

1718052968821.png


If you're gonna get Ullmark or Saros, cool. I support that if the cost is right to acquire and extend them. But in the absence of those two, I veer to value (and perhaps a solid 3rd goalie as well) and not a high $$$ guy every time. Because the data here doesn't support going aggressive on many goalies in the NHL. There is simply not enough evidence that a $6m guy on the open market will be better value than a cheaper Brossoit type.
 
Preston said:
As for the variance thing.. Plenty of excellent statistical analysis out there showing that you won't find much consistency or predictability in the goaltending position compared to forwards or d. It's wild to argue otherwise. But yes, there are a small few that are better and more predictable than others, though that doesn't always mean they're consistently good or even above average. 2 of the good ones are available. I don't mind going for them if the price is right but I'm not gonna blow my load for them either because they will cost significant $$$ to extend.

This does not include the 23-24 season - Kuemper, Vasi, Saros, Allen (the former consistent rocks) had a bit of an off year so that would have been reflected in this analysis, but still.. It's a decent snapshot for a 4 year sample (5 years+ may be a bit optimistic to expect true consistency from goaltenders).

View attachment 20752

And yes, paying big bucks to goalies on outlier seasons can be quite an adventure. I wouldn't do that either:

View attachment 20753

On the other hand, some can be fairly consistent, relatively speaking (they're still goalies after all and can fall off a cliff at any point). Gibson is consistently average, the others are quite good in this 4 year sample. Though, as mentioned, Saros and Vasi fell off a bit this year which is not reflected here:

View attachment 20754


If you're gonna get Ullmark or Saros, cool. I support that if the cost is right to acquire and extend them. But in the absence of those two, I veer to value (and perhaps a solid 3rd goalie as well) and not a high $$$ guy every time. Because the data here doesn't support going aggressive on many goalies in the NHL. There is simply not enough evidence that a $6m guy on the open market will be better value than a cheaper Brossoit type.
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It will be available for viewing until July 1st, at which time it will be deleted from Forum Ice servers.
 
Preston said:
As for the variance thing.. Plenty of excellent statistical analysis out there showing that you won't find much consistency or predictability in the goaltending position compared to forwards or d. It's wild to argue otherwise. But yes, there are a small few that are better and more predictable than others, though that doesn't always mean they're consistently good or even above average. 2 of the good ones are available. I don't mind going for them if the price is right but I'm not gonna blow my load for them either because they will cost significant $$$ to extend.

This does not include the 23-24 season - Kuemper, Vasi, Saros, Allen (the former consistent rocks) had a bit of an off year so that would have been reflected in this analysis, but still.. It's a decent snapshot for a 4 year sample (5 years+ may be a bit optimistic to expect true consistency from goaltenders).

View attachment 20752
Click to expand...

This says almost exactly what I've been saying. Goalie performance is variable, but knowing a good goalie from a bad goalie is not tarot card reading. A bad year for a good goalie will tend to be better than a bad year from a bad goalie. Bad goalies can have good years. Paying for a goalie with a bad (or no) track record after 1 good year is a way to spend 5 million dollars on your AHL team.

All of the normal shit that can impact performance (age related decline, injury, cocaine, etc) has an outsized impact in goaltending performance.

The way to win in net isn't to throw up your hands, call goaltending voodoo and just throw whatever the two cheapest options you can find in there is. It's to find 2 guys who are both average or better on reasonable value contracts/cap hits that both have a reasonable chance at being good for 35+ games. How you find those guys doesn't really matter. Draft, trade, free agency, whatever until you eventually luck into someone who goes on an elite run for a bunch of years.
 
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Preston said:
The answer isn't to throw money and assets at goalies out of desperation. Or to act like spending money on goalies is safe and easy to get right. It isn't. So yes you can pay big assets for one year of Saros or Ullmark and yes, you can extend them at big bucks. But it's a bit naive to think there's no risk to that.

The safer, more proven method is to find value and load the rest of the roster with talent.
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that's all well and good. I still don't think Brossoit will be worth it.
 
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