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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Wayward DP said:
that's all well and good. I still don't think Brossoit will be worth it.
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And I don't know if he is. None of us do even if some pretend otherwise. As the data shows, he's no worse of a bet than most of the league, many of which would cost far more. There are 5-10 goalies in the league where you can be reasonably confident that they'll be starter caliber next season. Beyond 1 year it gets murky though.

So yeah go for Saros and Ullmark but if you're extending them they're gonna cost a lot in dollars and term and you're banking on them having 10+ year windows of elite play. Could it happen? Absolutely. But it's not without risk; it's quite a rare feat to be that good for that long. As we've seen with Vas (and he's a hall of famer) the wheels can fall off real quick and the difference between an upper echelon goalie and flat average or worse is far smaller than it is for players. Tavares went from being a 1c to a 2c after a huge drop off.. An elite goalie can become backup level real quick with just a marginal drop off.

Being wrong has dire consequences and the level of conviction any team can have with goaltending is not what it is with forwards or d where you have established fairly reliable career curves.
 
Preston said:
And I don't know if he is. None of us do even if some pretend otherwise. As the data shows, he's no worse of a bet than most of the league, many of which would cost far more. There are 5-10 goalies in the league where you can be reasonably confident that they'll be starter caliber next season. Beyond 1 year it gets murky though.

So yeah go for Saros and Ullmark but if you're extending them they're gonna cost a lot in dollars and term and you're banking on them having 10+ year windows of elite play. Could it happen? Absolutely. But it's not without risk; it's quite a rare feat to be that good for that long. As we've seen with Vas (and he's a hall of famer) the wheels can fall off real quick and the difference between an upper echelon goalie and flat average or worse is far smaller than it is for players. Tavares went from being a 1c to a 2c after a huge drop off.. An elite goalie can become backup level real quick with just a marginal drop off.

Being wrong has dire consequences and the level of conviction any team can have with goaltending is not what it is with forwards or d where you have established fairly reliable career curves.
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I agree, we should find the best asshole and get them. all assholes have their risks.
 
And no it's not "throwing up your hands". It's using data and understanding that the delta on performance from season to season is wildly different for goaltending than any other position. There is quantifiable evidence of this and we cannot ignore that. So you decisions must reflect that.
 
I mean you can't even really use age to predict performance in this position

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It's all over the place. There's no career age arc that you can loosely rely upon as another data point.
 
You never seem to factor in the risk of what not making a decision is.

Choosing to not make a bold decision is a decision, and seems riskier than making a bold decision to me.
 
MindzEye said:
You never seem to factor in the risk of what not making a decision is.

Choosing to not make a bold decision is a decision, and seems riskier than making a bold decision to me.
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And the bold decision I want them to make is to load up on talent and finally become a top nerdies team and presidents trophy winner. Get a little uncomfortable against the cap, sweat a bit. If it means adding an additional stud d, it's usually gonna be worth it. Wasting assets for one year of Saros if it means they aren't gonna actually be that team is just a waste of time. Unless they extend him. But extending him might scare me even more. Teams can win cups with average goalies but they aren't gonna win cups unless they're better than whatever the fuck the leafs were this year, no matter who's in net.
 
No rule currently in the league that prevents teams from improving multiple positions.

#LetBradCook
 
CH1 said:
No rule currently in the league that prevents teams from improving multiple positions.

#LetBradCook
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This goes back to my previous point about variance. You can think you're improving by spending more money. But that isn't as often the case as it is with goaltending as opposed to other positions. It's not that simple. The solution isn't spend more money on goaltending - it's be smarter with goaltending. And that doesn't always imply spending more.
 
Preston said:
This goes back to my previous point about variance. You can think you're improving by spending more money. But that isn't as often the case as it is with goaltending as opposed to other positions. It's not that simple. The solution isn't spend more money on goaltending - it's be smarter with goaltending. And that doesn't always imply spending more.
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John Tavares also proves that spending more doesn’t always work
 
CH1 said:
John Tavares also proves that spending more doesn’t always work
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No but a 1c taking a step back means he's still a good 2c. An elite goalie paid elite $$ taking a step back makes him no different than what many teams get out of platoons that cost 4-5m combined or less. Plus you have a predictable career age arc with a guy like Tavares that he has followed beautifully. Goalies aren't so simple. You're paying for the talent without correcting for the additional risk/variability.
 
true but I’m not hearing many folks here advocating for making your goalie one of the core 5 in terms of earnings
 
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