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CH1 said:
Interesting.

My conviction levels are low (either way). Would love to hear your rationale.

I can see darkness....but I can equally see all time highs. So no big bets for me; just hedges.
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The normalcy that the market is pricing in? I'm not convinced. This market needs an excuse to pop that giant bubble. I said the same thing last December that if something impacted potential normalcy it would be the catalyst. Gonna sit on it sit as more data comes but I don't think the market will be too quick to price it in so there's time!
 
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CH1 said:
Interesting.

My conviction levels are low (either way). Would love to hear your rationale.

I can see darkness....but I can equally see all time highs. So no big bets for me; just hedges.
Click to expand...
Future totally cloudy for me. I don’t see lows or highs. I guess I’m sticking with what I said at the beginning of the year. It’ll be a year of up and down and end up basically flat. Much ado about nothing.
 
today has been splendid --- rode GOOGL up, rode ABNB up

juts got into SQ calls for 1.00, now 1.75....will get out if it goes back to 1...so a free trade with nothing but upside to end the week
 
im surprised at the pessimism.

markets have jumped like 20% in just the last 6 months or so, and that's with this lockdown shit extending far longer than imo even the markets would have priced in.
 
zeke said:
im surprised at the pessimism.

markets have jumped like 20% in just the last 6 months or so, and that's with this lockdown shit extending far longer than imo even the markets would have priced in.
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Things are great. Gotta look at valuations tho. The multiples are historic. Doesn't mean they can't go higher but this is a classic bubble setup. And bubbles always pop.
 
zeke said:
That was true a year ago. And longer.
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And it'll keep being true for as long as this bubble continues; the more we rise, the harder we'll drop. Natural economic cycle repeated throughout history. Bear markets happen naturally. Timing it is pointless and impossible which is why I always laugh at permabears. But it'll happen eventually. It always does!
 
Preston said:
Things are great. Gotta look at valuations tho. The multiples are historic. Doesn't mean they can't go higher but this is a classic bubble setup. And bubbles always pop.
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yes...but in my experience, very hard to get the timing right. might be next month, might be 2023
 
CH1 said:
yes...but in my experience, very hard to get the timing right. might be next month, might be 2023
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Yup! Never said otherwise. The overall market just did almost 100% in just over a year. Much like I didn't get caught up in the euphoria in Jan/Feb weed stocks/Cathie Wood trash, I'm not exactly buying that this continues either. We could easily go higher but being cautious and hedging after a year of historic life changing gains? Yeah... Probably the right idea.
 
my best guess is rangebound all year (2021) and then big dick bull energy in 2022 and most of 2023

with some nice intermittent 10-15% pullbacks along the way
 
CH1 said:
my best guess is rangebound all year (2021) and then big dick bull energy in 2022 and most of 2023
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Yeah but you change your mind daily about these things (as you should! Need to be elusive)! A couple months ago when we were bear dicking you had strong bear energy. I'm disappointed!

Needless to say I'm a contrarian and that usually serves me well. I was the only bull here last April!
 
Preston said:
Yeah but you change your mind daily about these things (as you should! Need to be elusive)! A couple months ago when we were bear dicking you had strong bear energy. I'm disappointed!

Needless to say I'm a contrarian and that usually serves me well. I was the only bull here last April!
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I did have robust bear energy....but the dip buyers are relentless....and there's a tad too much latent bearishness around for me, mostly due to the obvious signs of mania and the fact that the market crashed last year. Makes me think this is they year "nothing happens"

But yeah, I might change my mind after my afternoon coffee

One thing that keeps me away from my bear suit is the chart of the stock markets outside the US. International markets are finally catching up (full of boring non tech companies like banks, industrials, energy names, etc) and are actually breaking out.

Hard to be bearish looking at that
 
Preston said:
Needless to say I'm a contrarian and that usually serves me well. I was the only bull here last April!
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What about this guy? He had many great takes. Prescient.
DOW30000 said:
I just deposited roughly $100k into the stock market. Not worried at all because the DOW will be at 30,000 within a few weeks. A free $50k for doing nothing.
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DOW30000 said:
Lol, where the **** are the “bears” now. The crash is completed and people have finally realized that the world isn’t ending. The DOW will be at 30,000 by the end of the month and I will be there to collect the profits. Have fun panicking, nerds.
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I got stopped out at break even with SQ at 1.00....trying again at 50 cents
 
DOW_30000 is obviously Zeke....good call by him

not just a hockey and beer guy
 
CH1 said:
I did have robust bear energy....but the dip buyers are relentless....and there's a tad too much latent bearishness around for me, mostly due to the obvious signs of mania and the fact that the market crashed last year. Makes me think this is they year "nothing happens"

But yeah, I might change my mind after my afternoon coffee

One thing that keeps me away from my bear suit is the chart of the stock markets outside the US. International markets are finally catching up (full of boring non tech companies like banks, industrials, energy names, etc) and are actually breaking out.

Hard to be bearish looking at that
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I actually restructured my ETFs to go more global earlier this year for that very reason. It has finally paid off, though I missed some US upside in the process as well. I'm deffo not short-term bearish though. I'm talking about longer term things. Zoom out on the SPY chart. If there is ever a real bear market the lack of support is frightening. And the higher we go the scarier it gets; doesn't help that the fundamentals support a major major crash (and it would be extraordinarily healthy for the markets). xtrends compares it to the stagflation of the 70s. He takes it a bit too far, naturally, but you can see the similarities.
 
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