lecoqsportif
Well-known member
He’s only 22. And that is a stacked win-now team. He’s navigating it well. Kakko, not so much.
Laval Rocket Thread
- Thread starter GGpX
- Start date
GGpX
Well-known member
Yeah, I don't think the Rangers or LA were going to trade them. That's also part of why this method of rebuilding worries me. It's easy to say "trade for players!", but what if all the players you've identified as interesting aren't available and/or require a massive overpay?
The Dach trade's turned out great for us, fingers crossed. I'm just worried about his next contract, honestly.
The Newhook trade is a waste of everyone's time.
The Dach trade's turned out great for us, fingers crossed. I'm just worried about his next contract, honestly.
The Newhook trade is a waste of everyone's time.
worm
Well-known member
I like the strategy though.
Maybe too much bad blood but Matheson is a perfect in Carolina with their soon to be UFA departed D
No interest in Necas for me
I never bought the hype but my guess was a RNH career as a 1OA , which is a good career
Dach has to make it to his next contract
Newhook will be fine on the second line , not enamored with the trade but its not as if they traded for a washed up 29 year old
He plays with trash most nights , and has put up decent numbers
As mentioned I would of moved that package for Musty
GrandWazoo
Well-known member
Given our forward situation and our draft record of drafting forwards, I'm not too upset with Newhook.
Dach has to prove he belongs next season and not made of glass
Newhook with proper linemates should score 25 next season
GGpX
Well-known member
The timeline for him doesn't work because of his contract.
I don't have any issue with him as a player. However, by the time we're competitive*****, major asterix included on purpose, he's going to be 26, and he'll need a new contract. Not to mention being one full year away from full agency.
If he's good, he's going to be asking for a contract that we probably can't afford and we would be absolutely foolish to give if we can afford it. If he's not good, he's not getting re-signed and that's that. Reminder: While the Gallager & Anderson deals from hell are going to be off the books, Slaf & Dach are going to need a new contract, Reinbacher's ELC ends at the same time as Newhook's deal, Guhle & Xhekaj are going to need a new contracts (assuming they're still here, I think one of them will be traded by then), and we'll probably sign a UFA or two to replace Savard & Matheson. Or foolishly re-sign one/both, whatever.
In the end, a waste of everyone's time.
Newhook would have been much more enticing had we signed him to a longer term contract, but alas...
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Alan C
Well-known member
If he plays well his value goes up on the trade front too. His speed is impressive. We will see if he has the hands for 25-30 with more offensive line mates. I don't like his size though. It a meh move but you take your swings on the trade front just like the draft table. Time will tell if its a strike.
GGpX
Well-known member
Sure, but if his value goes up, what is he getting traded for? Future picks and/or prospects? If the team is on the brink of contending (I don't think they will be with the core we have, but I'm probably in the minority) then they won't care about getting futures, they'll be looking for a present player and the Casey Mittelstadt for Bowen Byram types of trades rarely happen.
And just for argument's sake, assuming they did trade Newhook for futures instead of re-signing him, what was the fucking point?
That's what I mean. No matter the outcome, all roads to the conclusion of the Newhook trade lead to the same path: A waste of everyone's time.
And just for argument's sake, assuming they did trade Newhook for futures instead of re-signing him, what was the fucking point?
That's what I mean. No matter the outcome, all roads to the conclusion of the Newhook trade lead to the same path: A waste of everyone's time.
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Alan C
Well-known member
The future makeup of the team will play a part in any decisions. As mentioned I don't like his size given we already have Cole. I would have preferred keeping the 31 and 37 picks. Not sure what he could be traded for depends what he becomes.
GrandWazoo
Well-known member
We have an asset secured for 3 more years, we’ll see after that. If he settles as a versatile 50 points C/W, we wouldn’t we resign him for another 4-5 years at 5M? Or maybe we package him in a bigger deal? He’s probably going to be more valuable than the 2 picks we traded.
GGpX
Well-known member
I don't think there's a chance in hell a versatile 50 point center/winger signs for 4-5 years @ $5M. Especially not with the cap going up.
Here are some comparables from recently. I'm looking for players in their mid-to-late 20s, ideally coming off their second contract and ideally as RFAs, but there isn't a ton to choose from. Also, I'm including cap % because I believe it'll be very relevant.
Anthony Cirelli: For my money, the best comparable available, although a better player. RFA with one year before hitting true free agency. Consistently around the 40-45 point range (or pace). Signed by Tampa Bay in 2022 for eight years @ $6.25M, 7.58% of the cap.
JT Compher: UFA instead of RFA. With the exception of his contract year where his point totals ballooned up by 20 points, a steady 30-35 point player. Signed by Detroit for five years @ $5.1M AAV in 2023, 6.11% of the cap.
Andrew Copp: Similar to Compher. UFA instead of RFA, consistent ~35-40 point player that saw his totals balloon up in his contract year. Signed by Detroit for five years @ $5.625M in 2022, 6.82% of the cap.
Phillip Danault: UFA instead of RFA, mostly a 45-50 point player with excellent defensive talents who actually saw a dip in production in his contract year. Signed by LA in 2021 for six years @ $5.5M in 2021, 6.75% of the cap.
Charlie Coyle: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, consistent 35-40 point player, whose totals have ballooned up after signing the contract. Signed by Bawstun in 2019 for six years @ $5.25M, 6.44% of the cap.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, usually a 35-40 point player that saw his totals balloon up in his contract year. Signed by NYI in 2020 for six years @ $5M, 6.14% of the cap.
Brock Nelson: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, points usually fluctuated between 40-50. Signed by NYI in 2019 for six years @ $6M, 7.55% of the cap.
Alexander Wennberg: UFA instead of RFA, a career with a lot of fluctuation. Once had a 59 point season, then the next two seasons combined for 60 points. Moved around a little. Signed by Seattle in 2021 for three years @ $4.5M, 5.52% of the cap.
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So with the exception of Cirelli, Nelson & Wennberg, all of those players signed in the 6% range for 5 or 6 years.
So let's stay conservative and say Newhook gets 5 years on his next contract. Let's assume he'll stay the player he is now without any growth & play consistently at the pace he's on now, a 20G 27A 47PTS over 82 games pace. Let's also assume health isn't a problem.
He's going to get a caphit in the >7% range depending on how high the cap goes, and we all know it's going to increase. 7% of the current cap is $5.845M. Increase that to 7.5% similar to Nelson & Cirelli, that's $6.263M.
If the Cap gets to $90M when Newhook's deal is up, you could be looking at a 5 year deal @ $6.75M. And I'm being conservative with the years, I think he'll be getting at least 6 or 7 years.
So, everyone cool with Newhook getting a 5 year deal for $33.75M? His age won't be so bad with a 5 year deal, granted, but I wouldn't give him that contract.
In a less conservative view, I do think he'll get better and if he stays healthy, he's got a shot at being a 50 point player. I think he'll get something along the lines of 6-7 years @ around $7M annually. And that's too rich for me. I'll let a bottom feeder with a lot of capspace like Pittsburgh sign him for that.
Here are some comparables from recently. I'm looking for players in their mid-to-late 20s, ideally coming off their second contract and ideally as RFAs, but there isn't a ton to choose from. Also, I'm including cap % because I believe it'll be very relevant.
Anthony Cirelli: For my money, the best comparable available, although a better player. RFA with one year before hitting true free agency. Consistently around the 40-45 point range (or pace). Signed by Tampa Bay in 2022 for eight years @ $6.25M, 7.58% of the cap.
JT Compher: UFA instead of RFA. With the exception of his contract year where his point totals ballooned up by 20 points, a steady 30-35 point player. Signed by Detroit for five years @ $5.1M AAV in 2023, 6.11% of the cap.
Andrew Copp: Similar to Compher. UFA instead of RFA, consistent ~35-40 point player that saw his totals balloon up in his contract year. Signed by Detroit for five years @ $5.625M in 2022, 6.82% of the cap.
Phillip Danault: UFA instead of RFA, mostly a 45-50 point player with excellent defensive talents who actually saw a dip in production in his contract year. Signed by LA in 2021 for six years @ $5.5M in 2021, 6.75% of the cap.
Charlie Coyle: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, consistent 35-40 point player, whose totals have ballooned up after signing the contract. Signed by Bawstun in 2019 for six years @ $5.25M, 6.44% of the cap.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, usually a 35-40 point player that saw his totals balloon up in his contract year. Signed by NYI in 2020 for six years @ $5M, 6.14% of the cap.
Brock Nelson: Signed in the final of his deal prior to becoming a UFA, points usually fluctuated between 40-50. Signed by NYI in 2019 for six years @ $6M, 7.55% of the cap.
Alexander Wennberg: UFA instead of RFA, a career with a lot of fluctuation. Once had a 59 point season, then the next two seasons combined for 60 points. Moved around a little. Signed by Seattle in 2021 for three years @ $4.5M, 5.52% of the cap.
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So with the exception of Cirelli, Nelson & Wennberg, all of those players signed in the 6% range for 5 or 6 years.
So let's stay conservative and say Newhook gets 5 years on his next contract. Let's assume he'll stay the player he is now without any growth & play consistently at the pace he's on now, a 20G 27A 47PTS over 82 games pace. Let's also assume health isn't a problem.
He's going to get a caphit in the >7% range depending on how high the cap goes, and we all know it's going to increase. 7% of the current cap is $5.845M. Increase that to 7.5% similar to Nelson & Cirelli, that's $6.263M.
If the Cap gets to $90M when Newhook's deal is up, you could be looking at a 5 year deal @ $6.75M. And I'm being conservative with the years, I think he'll be getting at least 6 or 7 years.
So, everyone cool with Newhook getting a 5 year deal for $33.75M? His age won't be so bad with a 5 year deal, granted, but I wouldn't give him that contract.
In a less conservative view, I do think he'll get better and if he stays healthy, he's got a shot at being a 50 point player. I think he'll get something along the lines of 6-7 years @ around $7M annually. And that's too rich for me. I'll let a bottom feeder with a lot of capspace like Pittsburgh sign him for that.
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GGpX
Well-known member
Sure.
But!
Under the premise that this team is going to be competitive two, maybe three years from now.
Do you think we're going to be swimming in cap space or do you think, in the most likely of scenarios, we'll have spent to the cap? I'll take the latter.
If we aren't swimming in capspace, where did the money go to? As mentioned a few posts above, we've got some players on the roster that need to get paid. We'll have probably signed a B or C level UFA to replace Savard or to fill in as a forward. The money's getting tied up in younger and (probably) more important players than Newhook.
I think there's almost no chance we're going to be trying to compete all the while having tons of capspace, not how this team's been currently constructed.
So what do you do with Newhook? If he underperforms, do you really want to sign him to a 5-6 year contract? And if he performs to the level he is now, without taking in the possibility of improvement, do you want to give him his retirement contract? When >80% of those contracts end up sucking?
But!
Under the premise that this team is going to be competitive two, maybe three years from now.
Do you think we're going to be swimming in cap space or do you think, in the most likely of scenarios, we'll have spent to the cap? I'll take the latter.
If we aren't swimming in capspace, where did the money go to? As mentioned a few posts above, we've got some players on the roster that need to get paid. We'll have probably signed a B or C level UFA to replace Savard or to fill in as a forward. The money's getting tied up in younger and (probably) more important players than Newhook.
I think there's almost no chance we're going to be trying to compete all the while having tons of capspace, not how this team's been currently constructed.
So what do you do with Newhook? If he underperforms, do you really want to sign him to a 5-6 year contract? And if he performs to the level he is now, without taking in the possibility of improvement, do you want to give him his retirement contract? When >80% of those contracts end up sucking?
GrandWazoo
Well-known member
Thanks for doing the research. Understood that cap is going up so using % makes sense. I don't think he has the intangibles of Nelson and Cirelli. I'd actually use a target of 6.5% based on the comparables you mentioned. That's 5.85M. I don't think I'd have much issue going 5-6 years at that rate if he's a valued member of the team at that point. To reach 7.5% he would need to display some major growth, which is a nice problem to have. Plus as you said, we'll be reaching our competitive stage at that point, unless we have a younger cheap talent ready to replace him, we would anyway be paying the same amount, maybe more for UFA, or assets if going by trade.
If he underperforms then salvage any value you can get. I don't really see what the issue is. 26yo is a good age for contracts, as long as you don't go 7-8 years, which most of the guys you mentioned didn't get.
We have 4 more years of players rights to figure it out, I'm not worried, nor do I think it's a waste of time. I'd rather face that dilemma than being desperate to acquire forward help externally.
Habs wont have contract issues if Hugo is still in charge
Newhook and Dach signed fair contracts as unproven players
Going longer made no sense for the Habs as neither is a blue chip cant miss and you could get stuck with an Anderson albatross deal
Agents would off loved a 7 year big money contract
Smart asset management is required to navigate their futures down the road