Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

[MindzEye]

Murray-Samsonov is fine next year. There's no reason to buy high on Samsonov regardless of how the 2nd half goes. This would be far and away the best season of his career. Drag his dick over broken glass (he's a RFA) and make him do it again before you even consider going more than. We have one more year of RFA control over him, use it and figure it out after. If he is a .915-.920 guy twice in a row, pay him the 5x5 or whatever if you want to keep him.

We'll have a better idea of what's in the pipeline by then as well. We need to see Woll do this for longer than 5 minutes before we start to consider a potential option again. Hildeby will likely come over to North America next year, the Russian kids should both be in the KHL by then and we'll have a better idea what they are, etc.

 

[zeke]

Shouldn't be too hard to sell Murray with one year left, now on his 2nd decent year in a row.

 

[Deckie007]

Or you know, keep him around because goalies are assholes

 

[zeke]

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Or you know, keep him around because goalies are assholes

They so are.

 

[zeke]

is he our best prospect

 

[leafman101]

Best 19 y/o season KHL
1. Kaprizov - 0.86 ppg
2. Filatov - 0.85
3. Kuznetsov - 0.84
4. Yakupov - 0.82
5. Buchnevich - 0.63
(Grebyonkin with new team 0.60)
6. Vesalainen - 0.55
7. Panarin/Chinakov - 0.53
9. Marchenko - 0.52
10. Grebyonkin - 0.50

 

[MindzEye]

is he our best prospect

Grebyonkin: Not being in our top 15 is criminal imo. His performance for his new club has a NHLe of 33 points. Knies has a NHLe of 30 points. Half of a year younger than Knies. Could easily be a top 2-3 prospect in our system by training camp next year.

I'd still have Robertson ahead of him, but I'm a well known Robertson stan. Could easily pass Knies, Minten, Niemela on my board.

 

[zeke]

I'd still have Robertson ahead of him, but I'm a well known Robertson stan. Could easily pass Knies, Minten, Niemela on my board.

He's starting to get close to Nick's 19yr old AHL production now.

And you probably have to take Nick down a notch or two in prospect status since then, even if it's just due the overwhelming injuries.

 

[MindzEye]

And you probably have to take Nick down a notch or two in prospect status

The fuck I do.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

If someone would give us Mindz value for Robertson, we should take it and run.

 

[MindzEye]

I look at him the way anyone functioning GM should look at an A or A- prospect. I'm not trading them for a rental, but I would trade them in a package for an impact player of need that is signed to some term. Say a fringe 1st line in-prime LW signed for a few years was available, I would definitely include Robertson in the deal.

It's not worth selling him off for scraps. You can get scraps easy every summer, what you can't get is the player Robertson has a chance to become, even if the start to his career has been bumpy. You can't fake elite skill and production like his though.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I look at him the way anyone functioning GM should look at an A or A- prospect. I'm not trading them for a rental, but I would trade them in a package for an impact player of need that is signed to some term. Say a fringe 1st line in-prime LW signed for a few years was available, I would definitely include Robertson in the deal.

It's not worth selling him off for scraps. You can get scraps easy every summer, what you can't get is the player Robertson has a chance to become, even if the start to his career has been bumpy. You can't fake elite skill and production like his though.

I don't disagree with any of that, but I do think his value may be quickly approaching scraps territory, so if someone really thought highly of him and wasn't going to ding us much for the injury history, I gotta go for it. The same way you'd approach Knies, I would approach Robertson instead, even though Robertson has the AHL track record. He's just useless if he's always going to be so brittle, and I'm not sure I can think of an example of a player who was constantly hurt in the early stages of his career and then just became a relative iron man. We probably need to accept that Nick will never really be a full season threat for us.

If he's the centerpiece of a deal for a guy like Meier or Boeser, I pull that trigger yesterday.

 

[leafman101]

People just forget how young Robertson is because he has been around forever. The injuries are certainly an issue, but the fact that he hasn't made an impact in the NHL yet is not unusual.

If he can stay healthy he'll be a good player. It would be like trading Steen, so you better get something good.

But, yeah. For Meier with a long term deal, no question.

 

[Artnes]

I imagine GMs are hesitant to have him as one of the key pieces in any return given his run of bad luck lately.

 

[LeafGm]

I’m as down on Robertson as anyone, but even I wouldn’t trade him unless he’s being valued as a high-end, blue-chip prospect. And not for a rental.

Otherwise, you’re better off hanging on to him like a lotto ticket rather than selling low.

 

[leafman101]

Its short sighted to move him. Just look at Lilly and Sandin. They are 23 and 22 and are providing unreal value for $1.5 mill ($9.4 and $7.1 respectively according to Dom). You can only find that value in the draft.

Knies and Robetson are 21 and 22 next season. They probably don't have Lilly/Sandin upside, but they should be ready to play. Getting legit skill in our bottom 6 for $1 million instead of ZAR and NAK or whoever will be huge.

I'd try to trade guys that are further out like Niemela and Minten and 1sts.

 

[Preston]

My main purpose for not wanting to move Robertson is that his trade value is likely trash right now. Like.. Lower than Liljegren's was a couple years ago probably when everyone wrote him off. So yeah you just have to hope that he stays healthy and figures out how to play in the NHL at some point. I'm less optimistic than many others just because, unlike with Liljegren, I question whether his toolset will translate in the NHL and wonder if his flaws as a player (tunnel vision, skating, puck distribution, size/strength, long wind up on shot makes it hard to get off shots so he needs to learn how to create a lot of space, etc) are too much to overcome.

But his shot is great and he should be able to be a big time scorer and it's worth being patient over. Because at this stage no team is gonna value him enough to give up a decent piece.

 

[LeafGm]

Its short sighted to move him. Just look at Lilly and Sandin. They are 23 and 22 and are providing unreal value for $1.5 mill ($9.4 and $7.1 respectively according to Dom). You can only find that value in the draft.

Knies and Robetson are 21 and 22 next season. They probably don't have Lilly/Sandin upside, but they should be ready to play. Getting legit skill in our bottom 6 for $1 million instead of ZAR and NAK or whoever will be huge.

I'd try to trade guys that are further out like Niemela and Minten and 1sts.

Guys who are on the cusp of being able to contribute while on ELC’s or cheap RFA contracts are definitely worth their weight in gold to this team right now.

 

[Artnes]

If they are looking to make a significant upgrade to the top 6 (Meier) then one of Knies or Robertson is likely gone

Those two likely have the most shine for rival GMs at the moment