Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

[LeafOfFaith]

My position on him has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with health. I think we should accept the likelihood that he will always be hampered by injuries. Maybe he ends up being a great player that gets injured often or maybe the injuries completely derail him and he never becomes anything. Either way, if someone wants to pay full freight on him or close to it, I’m out.

 

[zeke]

P.s. This stemmed from a comment that didn't mention Robertson and was just trying to point out how good Grebyonkin is starting to look.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

We’ll move this discussion into the Robertson thread. Our sincerest apologies!

 

[Volcanologist]

My main purpose for not wanting to move Robertson is that his trade value is likely trash right now. Like.. Lower than Liljegren's was a couple years ago probably when everyone wrote him off. So yeah you just have to hope that he stays healthy and figures out how to play in the NHL at some point. I'm less optimistic than many others just because, unlike with Liljegren, I question whether his toolset will translate in the NHL and wonder if his flaws as a player (tunnel vision, skating, puck distribution, size/strength, long wind up on shot makes it hard to get off shots so he needs to learn how to create a lot of space, etc) are too much to overcome.

But his shot is great and he should be able to be a big time scorer and it's worth being patient over. Because at this stage no team is gonna value him enough to give up a decent piece.

yeah. you can't move him now because other GMs aren't going to value him properly in negotiations because of the injuries. that's just how the game works. I'm not a fan thus far, but you can't sell low if you can possibly avoid it. to me Robertson is shelved as a serious trade asset right now.

 

[MindzEye]

I think we should accept the likelihood that he will always be hampered by injuries.

But why?

People were saying the same shit about Matthews a few years ago (lol, injury prone!). I've yet to see a prospect not make it in the league because their bones are too brittle. Conky's, sure. Knee/hip, sure. Tons of skill midgets in the league now , there's no reason to assume that Robertson is historically injury prone compared to them. Does the little motherfucker need to learn how/when/where to engage in a league where 90% of it is bigger and stronger than he is though? Yeah, clearly he does. Self preservation is a hell of a drug, he's really likely to figure it out at some point.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Just personal opinion but I’m also strongly biased against injury prone guys in general.

I can’t imagine anyone would pay us near true value based on his numbers, but if they did, he’s the guy I use as the centerpiece at the deadline.

 

[LeafGm]

I don’t buy that it’s just a matter of bad luck or Robertson needing to learn pick his spots better.

Unless he can develop Gretzky-level hockey IQ and learn to completely avoid all contact while still contributing, he’s going to absorb hard hits in open ice or painful tumbles into the boards from time to time.

And seemingly every time that happens, he breaks like a piece of fine China. Because fundamentally he’s just too fragile to survive at the NHL level, like Carlo Colaiacovo or Joffrey Lupul before him.

But that’s just like, my opinion, man. And I hope I’m wrong.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Well said.

 

[leafman101]

Even guys like Antropov, Colaicovo and Lupul had good careers though. I'd gladly take 22 year old Antropov or Lupul on this team for $1 mill.

 

[axlsalinger]

Because at this stage no team is gonna value him enough to give up a decent piece.

The Leafs are not the only team with access to scouts and advanced stats.

 

[MindzEye]

I don’t buy that it’s just a matter of bad luck or Robertson needing to learn pick his spots better.

Unless he can develop Gretzky-level hockey IQ and learn to completely avoid all contact while still contributing, he’s going to absorb hard hits in open ice or painful tumbles into the boards from time to time.

And seemingly every time that happens, he breaks like a piece of fine China. Because fundamentally he’s just too fragile to survive at the NHL level, like Carlo Colaiacovo or Joffrey Lupul before him.

But that’s just like, my opinion, man. And I hope I’m wrong.

I mean, Colaiacovo had conkies and a knee injury that hampered him. Kind of my point here. Started his conky journey by trying to play like Scott Stevens a bit too much and the knee was almost entirely misuse by Paul Maurice and a derelict medical staff letting him play on an injured knee and making it way worse so we could chase 8th.

Lupul is a good cautionary tale though, but he still ended up scoring 200 goals and played 700 NHL games and was really good in Toronto (moderately healthy in 3 of the 4 seasons) until he turned 31. I'll take that from Robertson if that's our cautionary tale.

Calling two guys with successful NHL careers "too fragile to survive at the NHL level" is just bad analysis mate. Too fragile to reach their potentials? Sure. But both had decent or better careers with extended stretches as important players on their teams.

 

[Preston]

The Leafs are not the only team with access to scouts and advanced stats.

Well let's hope other teams don't look at his advanced stats because in that case his value would be even lower than I would hope for...

My point is that he's more of a speculative play than anything. He hasn't proven to be an NHL player yet. Just a prospect with injury issues that have devalued him to the point where the risk-reward probably means it's worth keeping him and hoping he gets healthy/learns how to play in the NHL vs trading him.

I'm just not a big believer in selling low even if it's possible he goes even lower than this. Potential reward far outweighs the risks in keeping him imo.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

In 4 of his first 5 seasons in the league, Lupul played almost every game.

He ended up being a consistently injured mess after that.

Robertson is a consistently injured mess before he's scored 5 NHL goals.

 

[Wayward DP]

In 4 of his first 5 seasons in the league, Lupul played almost every game.

He ended up being a consistently injured mess after that.

Robertson is a consistently injured mess before he's scored 5 NHL goals.

cocaine

 

[Preston]

The Lupul cocaine stories when he was on the Oilers with Stoll and Torres are scary. Dude was a legitimate addict.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Let's hear some, just between us.

 

[axlsalinger]

Well let's hope other teams don't look at his advanced stats because in that case his value would be even lower than I would hope for...

My point is that he's more of a speculative play than anything. He hasn't proven to be an NHL player yet. Just a prospect with injury issues that have devalued him to the point where the risk-reward probably means it's worth keeping him and hoping he gets healthy/learns how to play in the NHL vs trading him.

I'm just not a big believer in selling low even if it's possible he goes even lower than this. Potential reward far outweighs the risks in keeping him imo.

My point is that we can't run around saying he's our best prospect and still has obvious star potential, then in the next sentence say nobody will give up anything of consequence for him.

Yes there are idiot GM's in the league, but not all of them. I'm pretty sure a few are even capable of looking players up on Hockey Prospecting.

Of course it would be silly to give him away, but if he's a required part of a package to get a guy we really want it's worth investigating, for both sides.

 

[Preston]

My point is that we can't run around saying he's our best prospect and still has obvious star potential, then in the next sentence say nobody will give up anything of consequence for him.

Yes there are idiot GM's in the league, but not all of them. I'm pretty sure a few are even capable of looking players up on Hockey Prospecting.

Of course it would be silly to give him away, but if he's a required part of a package to get a guy we really want it's worth investigating, for both sides.

Never said that part at all. I don't think many have. I also didn't say nobody will give up anything of consequence for him... His value is simply at its lowest that it has ever been for obvious reasons. And selling low to recoup mediocre value is rarely a good idea. The benefits of waiting and hoping he turns into something while still on a cheap contract far outweigh the risks.

As for the second bolded part... This is bizarre and I have no idea what you're talking about. He is a prospect that will be 22 the next time he is healthy enough to play and still has not proven to be a capable NHL player yet while constantly being injured. I made 0 implications that every GM is dumb or don't know how to use google to look up prospects. If I'm another GM I'm far more interested in Robertson and would give up much more for him 1 year ago, 2 years ago, 3, etc. as opposed to now.

If a GM is dumb enough to back up the truck for Robertson and pay a package he would have paid 2 years ago, sure, but your implication is the exact opposite of what I'm saying here. I'm saying GMs aren't dumb enough to do that.

As for the last part, I never once implied that Dubas shouldn't pick up the phone and investigate it. He's allowed to do that too.

 

[zeke]

Coke isn't really addictive. Just a helluva lot of fun.

 

[Preston]

Let's hear some, just between us.

Honestly it was mostly them staying in their rooms all day doing coke and playing video games. But it was an every day thing, as opposed to a fun weekly or biweekly partying habit.