Maple Leafs @ Penguins - HNIC

[mbow30]

The truth lies in the middle, though

Yes there have been organizational missteps. But the leafs big guns have to own up to the fact that they haven’t delivered when it’s mattered. I’m a few isolated years it can be excused. But this is across the board. Since 19-20 Matthews has scored at a 59 per 82 goal pace in the regular season and 30 goal pace in the playoffs.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Organizations win titles though, not individual players. Matthews and Connor weren't the ones making phone calls to trade assets for Lyubushkin's, Ceci's etc to push them over the top. Pittsburgh made a bundle of smart moves around Crosby and Malkin to get their cups. Tampa, likewise made a bundle of smart moves to get theirs, etc.

Where are our smart moves around Matthews? We got shook down in early contract talks, brought in the wrong 11 million dollar player, and keep getting older, slower, and more defensively oriented as our reaction to losing to faster teams.

You're right, they gotta get it done. You're wrong about who the they is though. This isn't the NBA where you can put an okay supporting cast around a superstar and squeeze out a championship or two.

They’ve been on the edge of several series and lost all but one. The supporting cast has never been terrible or anything. The stars have to be able to squeeze out rounds by themselves, even if not cups.

 

[MindzEye]

The Keon argument is actually a really good example of this. Keon led the Leafs in scoring once among those 4 cups. He actually finished 5th the other 3 times. Could you imagine us winning a fucking title with Matthews finishing 5th in team scoring? lol.

They had 3 elite defenders around him (Horton, Kelly, Stanley), a HOF goalie, and tons of firepower.

Keon was real gud, but Keon might not have even been the best player on those teams.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

He could easy finish third or worse with the guys we have. And it’s not like we exactly fall to pieces with Matthews not even playing at all, as we know.

 

[zeke]

i wonder if those PIT/CHI/LAK early-cap-era teams were a bit of an anomaly that got lucky as the league was trying to adjust to the new cap reality.

the leafs also got hilariously screwed by the covid cap.

at the same time, the Leafs have been an elite regular season team for pretty much the entire cap era so lack of talent doesn't really explain the playoffs perforrmance.

 

[MindzEye]

The supporting cast has never been terrible or anything.

It hasn't?

Our best supporting cast was probably the year we made the 2nd round. Let's remove our "big 5" and do a rough arrangement by position and ice time:

Bunting - XXXXX - XXXXXX
Kerfoot - XXXXX - XXXXXX
Acciari - O'Reilly - Jarnkrok
Knies - Kampf - Lafferty


XXXXX-Brodie
McCabe-Holl
Gio-Schenn

Samosonv

Other than O'Reilly, Brodie, and McCabe, every one of those players was playing up a line or a pairing compared to where they've been any time they've been on a team that went deep in the playoffs, if they've every gone deep into the playoffs.

 

[MindzEye]

i wonder if those PIT/CHI/LAK early-cap-era teams were a bit of an anomaly that got lucky as the league was trying to adjust to the new cap reality.

the leafs also got hilariously screwed by the covid cap.

at the same time, the Leafs have been an elite regular season team for pretty much the entire cap era so lack of talent doesn't really explain the playoffs perforrmance.

4-5 guys can win regular season games with decentish goaltending. They can't win playoff series though. That we finally won a round the one time we added a legitimately good player to the mix shouldn't surprise us.

 

[CH1]

The truth lies in the middle, though

Yes there have been organizational missteps. But the leafs big guns have to own up to the fact that they haven’t delivered when it’s mattered. I’m a few isolated years it can be excused. But this is across the board. Since 19-20 Matthews has scored at a 59 per 82 goal pace in the regular season and 30 goal pace in the playoffs.

Basically, Matthews becomes Dave Keon in the playoffs. No bueno.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

4-5 guys can win regular season games with decentish goaltending. They can't win playoff series though. That we finally won a round the one time we added a legitimately good player to the mix shouldn't surprise us.

We lost to bottom barrel teams like Montreal and Columbus. You’re going to blame that on Ceci or whoever else?

 

[CH1]

We lost to bottom barrel teams like Montreal and Columbus. You’re going to blame that on Ceci or whoever else?

plenty of blame to go around in those losses..including the big stars choking like dogs

 

[MindzEye]

We lost to bottom barrel teams like Montreal and Columbus. You’re going to blame that on Ceci or whoever else?

Auston had 6 points in 5 games against the Bluejackets and was the only player with a + goal differential on our team in the entire series. So yeah, I'm struggling to blame Auston on that. Our "big 5" scored 7 of the 10 goals we scored in that weirdo covid 5 game bullshit.

Auston and Mitch sucked against Montreal though, sure.

 

[Preston]

Scoring at a 30 goal pace vs Boston, Tampa, Florida isn't horrible and I bet it's not all that different than many elite players paces against those teams.

Though of course we should want and expect that to get to the 40+ range. A lot of it is due to their consistently shit playoff powerplay (which I've always felt is more on them than the coaching staff, much to people's disagreement) and some of it is due to them playing an ugly style that is not condusive to having a high octane offensive team.

But at the end of the day these guys have to stop just doing the minimum amount and need to nut up for a series or two. Outside of Marner from games 5-7 over the last few years, none have them have been horrible; they are close. They just need one more gear. All of them.

 

[leafman101]

Our management/coaching have had negative impacts.

But also, think its more that elite players make GM's look good than vise versa. See Ken Holland, Stan Bowman, Dean Lombardi, Brian Burke, Doug Armstrong, Peter Chiarelli etc.

Bunch of elite players got some idiots names on the cup.

And I don't think its because those teams depth players were way better than Boosh and ZAR.

 

[MindzEye]

But let's play the same game as above

Vs Columbus

Hyman - XXXX - XXXXX
Mikheyev - XXXX - XXXXX
Robertson - Kerfoot - Kapanen
Clifford - Spezza - Engvall

XXXXX - Ceci
Muzzin - Holl
Dermott - Barrie

Andersen

Who would you even want on your team from that last? Mikheyev played his want into being a salary dump in Vancouver and has a very Jarnkrokesque 2 goals in 30 career playoff games now. Hyman and Muzzin obviously. Maybe Engvall? Another playoff chump though.

 

[mbow30]

Scoring at a 30 goal pace vs Boston, Tampa, Florida isn't horrible and I bet it's not all that different than many elite players paces against those teams.

Though of course we should want and expect that to get to the 40+ range. A lot of it is due to their consistently shit playoff powerplay (which I've always felt is more on them than the coaching staff, much to people's disagreement) and some of it is due to them playing an ugly style that is not condusive to having a high octane offensive team.

But at the end of the day these guys have to stop just doing the minimum amount and need to nut up for a series or two. Outside of Marner from games 5-7 over the last few years, none have them have been horrible; they are close. They just need one more gear. All of them.

AM 82 game avg

Vs bos 53 g
Vs fla 47 g
Vs tb 44 g

 

[Preston]

AM 82 game avg

Vs bos 53 g
Vs fla 47 g
Vs tb 44 g

Ya he's absurd in the season. More just comparing him to other stars vs the super elite teams.

Though he should be the best of them all. Or close to it. And he hasn't been in the playoffs.

 

[MindzEye]

And I don't think its because those teams depth players were way better than Boosh and ZAR.

It's not just that their depth players were better than Boosh and Zar. It's that their secondary players were better than Bunting, Kerfoot, Brodie, Acciaria, Gio, Jarnkrok, Kapanen, Ceci, Holl, Mikheyev, etc.

I'll play the same game with Florida's depth players from last year because recency (and survivorship) bias is fun. We'll remove Barkov, Tkachuk, , Reinhart, Verhaege, and Forsling

XXXXX - XXXXX - XXXXX
Lundell - Bennett - XXXXXX
Luostarainen - Lundell - Tarasenko
Lorentz - Stenlund - Rodrigues

Ekblad - XXXXX
Mikkola - Montour
OEL - Kulikov


So are their Lorentz's, Okposo's, and Kulikov's better than our ZAR's and Booshes....well, fucking yes. But more importantly, in the last like...7 fucking years, we've had maybe 3-4 guys in total who belong in a conversation with Bennett, Montour, Ekblad, Lundell, Tarasenko from one championship team.

 

[MindzEye]

Also fun is Florida's top players goal paces from last year's playoffs.

Verhaege: 38G
Reinhart: 34G
Barkov: 27G
Tkachuk: 21G

and the support group:

Rodrigues: 24
Bennett: 30
Tarasenko: 17

I don't see them waiting for 1-2 guys to rescue them and score all of the goals. They'd be waiting a long fucking time if they did.

Last 3 years combined, 82gm goal scoring pace

Auston: 37
Willy: 37
Tavares: 26
Mitch: 20

 

[thehabhater]

The Keon argument is actually a really good example of this. Keon led the Leafs in scoring once among those 4 cups. He actually finished 5th the other 3 times. Could you imagine us winning a fucking title with Matthews finishing 5th in team scoring? lol.

They had 3 elite defenders around him (Horton, Kelly, Stanley), a HOF goalie, and tons of firepower.

Keon was real gud, but Keon might not have even been the best player on those teams.

If you watched the 1967 finals, you would see that Keon was the hab killer in that series.

Even they said so.

 

[leafman101]

It's not just that their depth players were better than Boosh and Zar. It's that their secondary players were better than Bunting, Kerfoot, Brodie, Acciaria, Gio, Jarnkrok, Kapanen, Ceci, Holl, Mikheyev, etc.

I'll play the same game with Florida's depth players from last year because recency (and survivorship) bias is fun. We'll remove Barkov, Tkachuk, , Reinhart, Verhaege, and Forsling

XXXXX - XXXXX - XXXXX
Lundell - Bennett - XXXXXX
Luostarainen - Lundell - Tarasenko
Lorentz - Stenlund - Rodrigues

Ekblad - XXXXX
Mikkola - Montour
OEL - Kulikov


So are their Lorentz's, Okposo's, and Kulikov's better than our ZAR's and Booshes....well, fucking yes. But more importantly, in the last like...7 fucking years, we've had maybe 3-4 guys in total who belong in a conversation with Bennett, Montour, Ekblad, Lundell, Tarasenko from one championship team.

Florida is one of the best run orgs. I didn't put Zito on my list of idiots that won. Good GMs win cups too.