New Canadian Politics Thread

[anne25]

It has been difficult to get a family Dr. in Ontario for years. The last time anyone in our family needed to get a family Dr. was about 8 years ago. He put his name on the list and after about six months was given a Dr. at a hospital family clinic where he usually deals with a resident who runs things by the Dr. Better than nothing though. I lucked in and found a Dr. about a ten minute walk from where I live.

 

[MindzEye]

Would be nice if someone won and actually delivered.

I guess I struggle with what would be considered "delivering". There are macro issues that any federal government only has so much influence over and even some of that control, the same people talking about inflation would lose their shit if the Liberals actually did what was within their power to do about it.

I mean, we're all pretty aware at this point that a large amount of this inflation we're getting hit with boils down to increased food prices & oil prices largely due to the war in Ukraine:



Note the price spike in February that has since returned to "normal"...which leads me to the 2nd main cause of most of our inflation...runaway corporate greed. A shit ton of board rooms saw the price instability caused by a major war in Europe as an excuse to permanently raise prices. Corporate profits are of course at an all time high and we do nothing about it. The same inflation hawks would lose their fucking minds and scream communist if the Federal Government were to inact price controls, or punitive tax measures.

So yeah...delivered what exactly?

Unemployment numbers are actually pretty great


Wages are up...not enough to combat international price inflations, but up fair significantly



So yeah, I'm not sure what we're expecting the Feds to deliver here. BoC (independent of the Feds) will get inflation under control, a relatively minor recession has been predicted in the 1st half of 2023 as the result of the interest rate increases. As for mortgage rates, really only harms a few categories of people.

- New buyers....and I mean new new. Not someone walking out of their last property with 100's of K in equity to dump into their new house, but new new. Yeah, they're fucked. That's an ongoing issue of housing affordability though...can't have it both ways though, for homes to become affordable for Canadians, values have to tank. Choose one.

- Renewals. Yeah, this can hurt if the timing was ugly bad. But most mortgages have the ability to early renew (sometimes with a penalty). Anyone who didn't get on that train 6+ months ago...I mean, how much hand holding are we supposed to do here? I know a bunch of good mortgage professionals, and they've been warning their clients about this for about a year now.

- Variable rate mortgage holders. Same as above but worse really. Almost every variable rate mortgage in the country has the option to lock in and mortgage professionals (who yes, love those fees they get on any transaction) have been telling anyone who would listen for a long time now to get locked in. Any variable rate holder who didn't...and also can't afford 4.75% mortgage rates (which they should be able to....we've been stress testing at that level for years now)...well fuck.

Our economy about to fall into the toilet.

Honestly don't think it is. Inflation will get tamed over the 2nd half of the year, probably a short and shallow recession in 1st half 2023. Employment is strong, hopefully wage growth can play catch up with consumer prices.

Mortgage rates rumored to go up again soon just might be the end of a lot of people.

Anyone locked in won't notice. I bought in Dec 2020 at 2.3% fixed. Fixed rate mortgages make up about 80% of the mortgage market and as I mentioned above, anyone renewing absolutely right now, had the option to early renew some months back. Even renewing right now, you're getting 4.75% which is historically a pretty normal to low mortgage rate. 4.0% was basically the standard in the 90's (granted at much lower purchase prices)

 

[blkngldbabe]

We are locked in until May 2025 at 2.65. I’m hoping things have calmed the Fuck down by then and not gone sky high

 

[UWHabs]

Mindz, yeah, I think in reality the Feds have done a solid job at handling things and making sure the country isn't in terrible shape. But things are still down overall, and people never give the government credit for being "not as bad as it could be".

Overall, housing really is such a crazy issue. It's the case of people wanting their houses (and parents houses) to forever increase in value, while also wanting rents to stay cheap, but also being affordable to enter into the market. We had a long period with low interest rates, so people assumed that would go on forever as well. I remember when I was first going into the housing market I was told stories of the interest rates in the 1980s being in double digits. I don't know what the answer to the housing market is. Something's gotta give, and it's really hard to say which group of people is best to piss off.

 

[Wayward DP]

More than the usual to and fro with interest rates and housing prices I’m really interested to see what companies/government do to convince people to work for them.

I’m really worried about the level of doctors/nurses now. Not sure what it’s like in Ontario but if you don’t have a family doctor in BC you basically need to put your name on a list and wait and hope. Personally I know of someone who’s had to wait 2 years at this point.

It is a similar situation in the Maritimes.

And some specialists are worse. I’ve had clients wait over a year after being referred.

 

[Wayward DP]

I guess I struggle with what would be considered "delivering". There are macro issues that any federal government only has so much influence over and even some of that control, the same people talking about inflation would lose their shit if the Liberals actually did what was within their power to do about it.

I mean, we're all pretty aware at this point that a large amount of this inflation we're getting hit with boils down to increased food prices & oil prices largely due to the war in Ukraine:

View attachment 13075

Note the price spike in February that has since returned to "normal"...which leads me to the 2nd main cause of most of our inflation...runaway corporate greed. A shit ton of board rooms saw the price instability caused by a major war in Europe as an excuse to permanently raise prices. Corporate profits are of course at an all time high and we do nothing about it. The same inflation hawks would lose their fucking minds and scream communist if the Federal Government were to inact price controls, or punitive tax measures.

So yeah...delivered what exactly?

Unemployment numbers are actually pretty great

View attachment 13076
Wages are up...not enough to combat international price inflations, but up fair significantly

View attachment 13077

So yeah, I'm not sure what we're expecting the Feds to deliver here. BoC (independent of the Feds) will get inflation under control, a relatively minor recession has been predicted in the 1st half of 2023 as the result of the interest rate increases. As for mortgage rates, really only harms a few categories of people.

- New buyers....and I mean new new. Not someone walking out of their last property with 100's of K in equity to dump into their new house, but new new. Yeah, they're fucked. That's an ongoing issue of housing affordability though...can't have it both ways though, for homes to become affordable for Canadians, values have to tank. Choose one.

- Renewals. Yeah, this can hurt if the timing was ugly bad. But most mortgages have the ability to early renew (sometimes with a penalty). Anyone who didn't get on that train 6+ months ago...I mean, how much hand holding are we supposed to do here? I know a bunch of good mortgage professionals, and they've been warning their clients about this for about a year now.

- Variable rate mortgage holders. Same as above but worse really. Almost every variable rate mortgage in the country has the option to lock in and mortgage professionals (who yes, love those fees they get on any transaction) have been telling anyone who would listen for a long time now to get locked in. Any variable rate holder who didn't...and also can't afford 4.75% mortgage rates (which they should be able to....we've been stress testing at that level for years now)...well fuck.


Honestly don't think it is. Inflation will get tamed over the 2nd half of the year, probably a short and shallow recession in 1st half 2023. Employment is strong, hopefully wage growth can play catch up with consumer prices.


Anyone locked in won't notice. I bought in Dec 2020 at 2.3% fixed. Fixed rate mortgages make up about 80% of the mortgage market and as I mentioned above, anyone renewing absolutely right now, had the option to early renew some months back. Even renewing right now, you're getting 4.75% which is historically a pretty normal to low mortgage rate. 4.0% was basically the standard in the 90's (granted at much lower purchase prices)

Excellent, excellent summary. Full agreement.

One of our friends bought a house at the peak of the pandemic craze. Then got a variable rate mortgage (I was not in support). Knowing them, kinda doubt they locked it in...eeeeek.

 

[CTheBigPicture]

Bought peak pandemic, locked in under 2%. There was no way those rates would stay anywhere in that zone nor house prices. Locking in was the only sensible option. I have friends who "don't like fixed mortgages". You've got to be 'flexible' in your convictions. Fixed rate was the only way to go.

 

[WellPlayed]

Bought peak pandemic, locked in under 2%. There was no way those rates would stay anywhere in that zone nor house prices. Locking in was the only sensible option. I have friends who "don't like fixed mortgages". You've got to be 'flexible' in your convictions. Fixed rate was the only way to go.

Ya people got really used to low rates and alot of folks liked to try to sound smart by pointing out how much extra interest you were paying on a fixed. OK bud, but you're ignoring risk management. My risk on a fixed mortgage is I end up paying more interest than I need to. My risk on a variable is we lose our family home.

 

[zeke]

I just found myself a family doctor a walk away. Went to a walk-in and they had a doc who came home to Toronto from the states due to the pandemic. Pretty sweet. Haven't had a family doctor in a long time.

 

[UWHabs]

Bought peak pandemic, locked in under 2%. There was no way those rates would stay anywhere in that zone nor house prices. Locking in was the only sensible option. I have friends who "don't like fixed mortgages". You've got to be 'flexible' in your convictions. Fixed rate was the only way to go.

Variable rate mortgages trick you in. "Why would I pay a fixed 3% rate when I can get a variable rate mortgage for 2%? I'm saving 1% on that, and do you know how much that adds up to in the life of the mortgage?" And then they are shocked (shocked!) that the rate can now rise on them, and feel like they are being personally targeted.

 

[Preston]

Throughout history variables have basically always outperformed fixed. But fixed gives you peace of mind and the ability to budget properly. Once in a lifetime events do happen sometimes and if it does happen in this case, RIP house. So for most people, fixed makes more sense, especially during the earlier days of the pandemic. Important to preserve your emotional capital too. I know someone who bought last year and went variable and fuck, no one needs that kinda stress in their life. It isn't good.

 

[CTheBigPicture]

Agreed on variables being better over time but during the pandemic going fixed was a no brainer. Rates were always going to go you, and go up significantly.

 

[worm]

Bought peak pandemic, locked in under 2%. There was no way those rates would stay anywhere in that zone nor house prices. Locking in was the only sensible option. I have friends who "don't like fixed mortgages". You've got to be 'flexible' in your convictions. Fixed rate was the only way to go.

I'm locked in because I'm risk adverse but I bet over the life of my 5 year term the variable rate pays less interest.

 

[Neurospasm]

The future seems to be multi family living situations, it happens many other places around the world. Certainly not unusual for younger adults to live with their parents. RIP to that private life.

 

[worm]

Throughout history variables have basically always outperformed fixed. But fixed gives you peace of mind and the ability to budget properly. Once in a lifetime events do happen sometimes and if happens and if it does happen in this case, RIP house. So for most people, fixed makes more sense, especially during the earlier days of the pandemic. Important to preserve your emotional capital too. I know someone who bought last year and went variable and fuck, no one needs that kinda stress in their life. It isn't good.

Basically this

 

[Wayward DP]

Bought peak pandemic, locked in under 2%. There was no way those rates would stay anywhere in that zone nor house prices. Locking in was the only sensible option. I have friends who "don't like fixed mortgages". You've got to be 'flexible' in your convictions. Fixed rate was the only way to go.

I remember briefly discussing it with Ms. Wayward's friend and yeah... let's just say some of her friends are friends who I share my opinions with, and others I just bite my tongue. She is one where I bite my tongue. She tried to explain why she wanted a variable rate instead of fixed and I kinda nodded and then Ms. Wayward and I after the fact were like, 'that seems unnecessarily risky'.

Anyhow, not our problem. In fact, people like her are likely gonna help facilitate our entry into the housing market sooner than we may have feared during peak-pandemic crazy levels.

 

[Wayward DP]

I just found myself a family doctor a walk away. Went to a walk-in and they had a doc who came home to Toronto from the states due to the pandemic. Pretty sweet. Haven't had a family doctor in a long time.

I got lucky when we moved to NS in 2018. I joined the provincial waiting list, which is what you are supposed to do but is stupid and ineffective (like 1 in 10 are on it now maybe?).

Then I just basically hit the pavement lol. Called doctors until I found clinics accepting new patients. Got a doc who just emigrated from the UK and settled in Hali. Not much older than me so hopefully around for a while.

Fortunately my employer's wife is a doctor and when her sister (also a doctor) opened her family practice she took on Ms. Wayward. Dunno how you'd find a family doctor without knowing someone or some hustle though...

In PEI, a bunch of family doctors are downsizing their practices too due to stress etc...

 

[lecoqsportif]

The historic advantage of variable over fixed was legit, but realized during decades in which there was no liquidity trap. Once the effective policy guidance rate hit zero, it no longer held - we were at the zero lower bound and rates could only go in one direction.

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

Shit, we only had to wait three days for that knee slapper.

I was out of town on the weekend. Airports n shit.

 

[WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou]

In order for the CPC to form a majority, you would need- to win 51 angry Liberal ridings.
In order for the Liberals to form a majority, you would need to win 13 seats from the NDP or Bloc in Quebec.

I still see a Liberal minority next election.

That's the thing people forget. Moar votes for the Cons doesn't necessarily mean an increase in their seat count. It just means they win in ridings they already have by even larger margins or fail to win seats they were trying to gain by a smaller margin. No one new is getting into that tent with them. They're all already there.