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New Canadian Politics Thread

I guess we can always hope that, if they can clearly see that Ford is a liability, the PC caucus might bring out the knives they used once before on Patrick Brown.

Though the way they've largely been a bunch of trained clapping seals for Ford so far doesn't give me much hope of that.
 
LeafGm said:
I guess we can always hope that, if they can clearly see that Ford is a liability, the PC caucus might bring out the knives they used once before on Patrick Brown.

Though the way they've largely been a bunch of trained clapping seals for Ford so far doesn't give me much hope of that.
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They're going to have a similarish problem with Ford that the Republicans have with Trump. Ford would win a leadership race again today...how do you take a run at the guy who would win again, regardless of how poisonous he is outside of your echo chamber?
 
Quick reminder regarding Canadian media bias

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4 new polls out since the ethnic commissioners report came out.

All have the liberals at 32-33, and conservatives at 32-35.

Except one, which has the Conservatives at 39

So its clear that the shift upwards for the liberals has stalled, but is has been for the greater part of a month now. Also, no immediate drop from the ethics report.
 
I feel like if there's a segment of voters who were open to voting for the Liberals but waiting for the ethics commissioner's report before deciding to feel about this whole thing, they're a pretty tiny segment of the electorate. I think the vast majority of people have long since already decided whether or not they've give a shit about how Trudeau handled the whole SNC-Lavelin affair.

Trudeau's steadfast refusal to apologize, Trumpian or Harperian a reaction as it might be, is probably the safest path for him too.
 
If there was any hay to be had for apologizing he would have done so a long time ago.

But let's be honest, nobody would give him a break or second chance due to apology. Opposition parties would say he apologized and now he needs to resign.

Its just the politics of today, sad as it may seem. As for the segment of the population that made up their minds post SNC, the liberals were at around 37 percent, the conservatives 31-32 before it broke, the liberals dropped go 29 before recovering to around 33.

So initial drop of 8 points, half of which have come back. 2-3 percent of that to the Conservatives, rest to the green party. So it doesnt surprise me that the official report hasn't moved the needle any, most of the electorate has already made up their mind. The liberals that cared are over at the greens, the liberals who didn't care are back into the fold and the blue liberals are back at the CPC.
 
I'm entirely good even up (within polling margins), with strong leads in Ontario and Quebec, going into the campaign, where a lot of people who think they're voting for Scheer will really see him for the first time. Not see him in a carefully prepared bullshit diatribe in front of parliament, or a prepared sound bite, but actually see him forced to think on his feet and answer questions that aren't spoon fed to him.

He's as uninspiring a politician as Canada has to offer.
 
Two new polls out, both have the CPC at 33 percent, but Leger has the LPC at 34 and Ekos has the LPC at 37

Scheer has met his ceiling.
 
And a lot of Canadians still couldn't pick him out of a 2 man lineup.

Ontario and Quebec will hold their nose and re elect Trudeau. Western Conservative rule isn't far enough in the rear view mirror for us to quite have forgotten it yet.
 
MindzEye said:
And a lot of Canadians still couldn't pick him out of a 2 man lineup.

Ontario and Quebec will hold their nose and re elect Trudeau. Western Conservative rule isn't far enough in the rear view mirror for us to quite have forgotten it yet.
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As long as its a majority. A lib Green or lib NDP alliance would be gross.
 
so the poll tracker now has the PC's lead down to 0.7% (34.0 - 33.3), but the seat projections have the libs beating the cons both on the low end (105-104) and the high end (219-184), giving the libs a large lead in probablity of winning (63%-36%).
 
Its starting to happen.

3 of the last polls have the liberals leading nationally

New Nanos has liberals 35 conservatives 31

Effect of the scheer gays dog speech coming out maybe?

Either way, the leadlock is beginning to break.
 
It's kind of shocking how poorly Scheer and the Conservatives handled the Liberals' abortion/gay-marriage attack.

I mean, having nominated a Catholic religious zealot with a history (even as an MP) of opposing abortion & gay rights to lead their party, you'd have thought they would have been very careful about their messaging and well-prepared for this tactic.

Instead, they got caught telling Quebec voters one thing on the subject while promising their more socially Conservative voters out West something completely different. And then Scheer came out with his befuddled response on where he stands personally that managed to piss off both socially liberal and socially conservative voters.
 
don't ever change zeke.

I'm with LGM though - utterly amazed at how poorly the Scheer conservatives have handled these pretty predictable attacks. You'd think they would have figured out where they stand on any of these divisive social issues, or prepared talking points or something.

Instead it seems like they've been caught totally blindsided. And when Scheer opens his mouth he just makes things worse.
 
I'm not surprised. It took having a once in a political generation conservative iron fisted taskmaster to keep all of the morons in the clown car together. It's the dirty truth behind the western conservative movement. It's way more extreme than anyone outside of the west really gets and they need to balance between keeping their western base happy with red meat and not scaring the shit out of the far more centrist conservatives in the rest of the country. Go too far to the centre and the new Reform party breaks off and cripples right wing politics for a generation, too far right and the Liberals dominate for a political generation. Harper was fantastic at managing the moving pieces, Scheer is a soft bitch in comparison and will have a hard time faking his way through a single election cycle.
 
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