MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
There is currently an Enbridge line that runs to the US border in Sask, heads through the midwest and re enters the country at Sarnia, and that pipe goes through Ontario and end at facilities in Montreal. But Irving has a ~350K bpd facility in New Brunswick that currently doesn't have domestic pipeline delivery to it. It's a facility the Irvings have been wanting to expand for years, but they tend to have to order their product internationally and have it brought in by tanker for finishing. What I would suggest (again, very back of the napkin) is to do 600-800K of additional pipe capacity, but send it north over top of the great lakes, down through Ontario and meet link up with the Enbridge Line 9 right of way at whatever point makes the most sense. Then complete a line from Montreal to Irving that can carry ~300K bpd
Yes and whatever. Japan, SK, and Indonesia would be major customers out there as well. But if China wants it all, give it all to them. The overall strategy here is to have an oil industry that can be flexible in it's abiltity to service customers wherever. More domestic refinery capacity would increase our ability to service our own needs, more pipes west would obviously allow us to send more to Asia, more east allows us to provide more of Ontario's needs in house, as well as Irving shipping to Europe. But honestly, the US is going to remain our primary energy importer, we just need to be able to pivot as necessary. The economics of this are really clear. Even with a 25% tariff we would still be their cheapest supply.
Our current problem isn't necessarily that we sell the US a lot of oil, it's that we have no alternative aside from sending them ~80% of our production.
I expect a big pipe east as a unity project and increased refinery capacity at minimum. Increasing TMX is less likely imo but probably a smarter idea.
