No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

[Preston]

Dom's Net Rating had him ahead of all the flames but Weegar Andersson Hanifin before the year, and just a tick behind Hanifin and that's likely due to Hanifin getting more PP opportunity. (Net Rating has always seen McCabe as a good #3 dman.)

And Hanifin and Andersson seem to be off to very tough starts this year so far.

I'm starting to lean stronger and stronger towards Weegar or bust for Calgary d. MAYBE tanev but then there's a bit of a log jam of 3/4/5 d and someone's gonna be shorted deserved ice time (and I certainly wouldn't trade any of their top 4 for him).

Rielly Brodie McCabe Liljegren are all capable top 4 guys already.. if you had a #1/2 ok fine you can push one of them down or even trade a McCabe but otherwise I'm not sure I see a needle moving situation if you bring in anyone of the other d on the flames.

 

[Wayward DP]

I'm starting to lean stronger and stronger towards Weegar or bust for Calgary d. MAYBE tanev but then there's a bit of a log jam of 3/4/5 d and someone's gonna be shorted deserved ice time (and I certainly wouldn't trade any of their top 4 for him).

Rielly Brodie McCabe Liljegren are all capable top 4 guys already.. if you had a #1/2 ok fine you can push one of them down or even trade a McCabe but otherwise I'm not sure I see a needle moving situation if you bring in anyone of the other d on the flames.

yeah zeke was right all along.

Weegar's the guy.

 

[Preston]

yeah zeke was right all along.

Weegar's the guy.

To be fair Klingberg getting real minutes made the situation back there look far more dire than reality. But yeah, trust the data. Nerds have crushed it this year. And the data has always liked McCabe quite a bit. I wouldn't just push him to the side just for the sake of change.

 

[Wayward DP]

yeah I'm not a big McCabe fan by any stretch but I agree with you about (not) wasting assets to displace him with a non-Weegar CGY D.

 

[Preston]

Of course the problem is if Calgary dumps all of their pending UFAs, it's gonna probably mean that they're keeping Weegar for the long haul. So if not him than who would even be available?

 

[MindzEye]

Only concern with Weegar is cost. They're not giving him up cheap. Are we willing to trade Knies/Robertson/Cowan level prospects?

 

[zeke]

I figured Weegar's contract would make him cheaper to get in assets, not more expensive.

 

[MindzEye]

I figured Weegar's contract would make him cheaper to get in assets, not more expensive.

In a few years when he's out of the best years of it, yeah absolutely. While he's in the middle of the best years of the contract, what's Calgary's incentive to move him? GM's don't think 4-5 years down the road, they're usually fired by then.

 

[zeke]

the incentive to move him is to get rid of the contract while it still has some value.

 

[MindzEye]

the incentive to move him is to get rid of the contract while it still has some value.

Define "some value" though. Are we talking about a 1st + B prospect + stuff?

When you have a new arena on the way and the word from ownership is that they want to be competitive, Weegar is part of your retool next summer and there's lots of pending UFA's to punt on before you give your best defender, who is signed through the rest of his prime at a reasonable number.

The same reasons you want him, are the same reasons Conroy wants to keep him. Deal with tomorrow's problems tomorrow unless you're being overpaid for it today.

 

[MindzEye]

I mean, where are the cautionary tales of GM's being burned on long term contracts to similar players? Conroy just watched 35 yr old Jeff Petry get traded for Matheson, and then get picked up as balast in a Karlsson trade for the cost of a 2nd rounder and then flipped again for a 4th and a prospect despite being on a similar number contract until he's 36-37 years old.

Montreal ostensibly turned Petry's bad contract into Mike Matheson, a 2nd and a 4th. Why should Craig Conroy be afraid of hanging onto Weeger for a few more years?

 

[Preston]

Trading the older Weegar while he has some value (and possibly more value than their rentals) and extending the younger Hanifin may be the smart play for them in their eyes.

But yeah I do think he'll cost more than their rental guys. How much more, assuming they're even considering trading him at all? Well I don't think they'd get Robertson/Knies/Cowan type. But maybe a little more yeah. If you're the Leafs I'd strongly argue it's worth paying a little more for that than settling with a guy that you probably don't really need.

 

[zeke]

I think most/many view Weegar as the worst value on that blueline, even though he's not. I think the general view is that Hanifin and Andersson are the real talents on that blueline, and younger. While Tanev is the real defensive shutdown guy and Zadorov the real physical intimidator.

Maybe Conroy feels differently, I dunno. I know Treliving doesn't tho.

 

[Preston]

The problem is that every Leafs rumor is true now and I haven't heard weegars name at all yet. So either the Leafs have no interest in that long-term contract or the flames aren't considering trading anyone but their rentals. Or both I suppose.

 

[MindzEye]

If you're Conroy, there's no reason to trade Weegar this season. None. A "muzzin" type package isn't enough future value to bother with when you're already going to be unloading UFA's for futures over the next few months anyway. They're not tanking with years of Hubey, Kadri, Markstrom, Coleman, Mangiapane left. They'll trade the guys who won't extend (Lindholm most likely, though they should just throw a pile of money at him to keep him), Hanifin, Tanev, Zadorov, maybe even Kylington. Use the cap space in the summer to take a run at filling some gaps (a lot of interesting names currently unsigned if you're calgary....Willy, Reinhart, Guentzel, Skjei, Pesce, etc), promote some kids amd maybe trade some of that draft equity you got at the deadline last year if there's a good player or two their teams are looking to move on from.

"While he still has value" will be another year or two easily.

 

[MindzEye]

I think most/many view Weegar as the worst value on that blueline

We all kind of thought that he was the super secret value in Florida and then he was traded as part of a move for one of the top 5 young players in the world and given a big ass extension.

Maybe he's not a secret?

 

[zeke]

But that's not true - the best time for a bad team to trade any seemingly onerous contract is immediately.

If he thought he could get rid of Huberdeau and Kadri's contracts right now, he would/should.

 

[Preston]

Ya it's possible they don't want to trade him at any cost. But that doesn't mean the Leafs should throw their hands up in the air and say welp I guess we'll just grab zadorov and tanev for futures and essentially drop McCabe and Gio's minutes for them.

It just feels very lateral for something that's gonna cost some decent assets.

 

[MindzEye]

But that's not true - the best time for a bad team to trade any seemingly onerous contract is immediately.

I guess we disagree that Weegar's contract is particularly onerous. I doubt Calgary sees it that way currently.

If he thought he could get rid of Huberdeau and Kadri's contracts right now, he would/should.

That's part of my point. That he's stuck with them makes other moves far less useful as standalone moves. Why bother trading Weegar for random "value" (aka, a 1st and stuff) when you're already pot committed to Kadri & Huberdeau? Your best bet is to retool in that situation, not rebuild because you kind of can't rebuild. He's already more or less forced into a fair amount of roster change this summer, just lean into that and see what you can turn that cap and assets into.

Fundamentally, I think that you're forgetting Conroy's marching orders simply don't include a tear down/tank right now with a 1+ Billion dollar facility under construction. His bosses are telling him to compete, he won't be able to sell them a rebuild.

 

[MindzEye]

Ya it's possible they don't want to trade him at any cost. But that doesn't mean the Leafs should throw their hands up in the air and say welp I guess we'll just grab zadorov and tanev for futures and essentially drop McCabe and Gio's minutes for them.

It just feels very lateral for something that's gonna cost some decent assets.

and that's fair as well, but I think we're well into the world of wishful thinking if we're banking on Calgary deciding this season that we may as well move Weegar now for a 1st and stuff because we might only get Matheson, a 2nd and stuff for him in 4 years.