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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

MindzEye said:
Meh, I'll live with ~50 instead of ~60.

You still refuse to provide anything resembling a point projection and with your history of calling anyone who scores in the top 30-40 in the show "one of the best players in the league", I'm pretty sure that a 22 goal season will be called a huge win because something something stud.
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Actually I pretty clearly provided it yesterday after your latest demand/taunt.
 
I very much like to think of a world where Knies reads this board and does not know what to make of this, but it drives him as mad, if not more mad than M.E. and thus, his production suffers, and makes M.E. end up being correct, righting everything that is wrong around here at the cost of what i assume is a very nice young man's sanity and career.
 
MindzEye said:
Sorry, I don't actually read your posts, I use QuoteGPT and just fill in the blanks....mind posting it again?
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Why be mean? You don’t read your own posts either evidently, hence the fraudulent receipts that the audit turned up.

Here for you again to ignore:

If I have to make a dumb prediction, he's probably a 30+ goal scorer on average, 70-80 points per year once he gets going. Of course, now anything short of that and it'll be "oh, he's a 30 goal scorer in his sleep when he only scored 29 last year!!" or "he's just a sucky 25 goal scorer, nothing like what you thought". So there you go, I've set myself up for the lose-lose, and you've got the win-win where if he flames out, you win and if he's a first line winger, you win.

But as I said, it’s just a dumb prediction, but mostly because the forum is dumb about predictions. I mean, only here does one correctly call Kulemin scoring 30 and then get mocked for a decade for being right, or see people laughed at for calling Antropov a 30 goal scorer when he only scored 29. There is no winning when it comes to optimism around these parts.
 
I think we should all be happy if his nhl totals end up contradicting his college stats and he becomes a stud. Sometimes that happens. And it's ok.

Not all of us can be eye test legends like HL. Some have to rely on the data and the data maybe didn't show that this is who he was. For that reason we should all be happy that knies is a stud!
 
LeafOfFaith said:
(Revised estimate).
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Tis in the upper end of the band I mentioned a year ago here:


Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

Hey @MindzEye what numbers should we be expecting from Knies this year? Any comps? Is ppg again fine if we're expecting middle sixer? 1-1.1ppg is fine if all we're expecting is a 40-55 point type guy who hits things. Some comps in that range: Nieto: 1.14 Trevor Moore: 1.12 JVR: 1.11...
www.forumice.com
 
Preston said:
I think we should all be happy if his nhl totals end up contradicting his college stats and he becomes a stud. Sometimes that happens. And it's ok.

Not all of us can be eye test legends like HL. Some have to rely on the data and the data maybe didn't show that this is who he was. For that reason we should all be happy that knies is a stud!
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What do you mean, becomes a stud?

Stop living in the past.
 
MindzEye said:
Tis in the upper end of the band I mentioned a year ago here:


Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

Hey @MindzEye what numbers should we be expecting from Knies this year? Any comps? Is ppg again fine if we're expecting middle sixer? 1-1.1ppg is fine if all we're expecting is a 40-55 point type guy who hits things. Some comps in that range: Nieto: 1.14 Trevor Moore: 1.12 JVR: 1.11...
www.forumice.com
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I think you should consider doing a pros and cons list of maintaining this argument with this particular man and perhaps cut your time and energy losses now.

The old Mindz is still in there somewhere and i for one want him back.

Im not attracted to this shell of a man.
 
MindzEye said:
Tis in the upper end of the band I mentioned a year ago here:


Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

Hey @MindzEye what numbers should we be expecting from Knies this year? Any comps? Is ppg again fine if we're expecting middle sixer? 1-1.1ppg is fine if all we're expecting is a 40-55 point type guy who hits things. Some comps in that range: Nieto: 1.14 Trevor Moore: 1.12 JVR: 1.11...
www.forumice.com
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25-30 goal/~60 points vs. 40-55 point guy who hits.

The chasm between a 40 point guy and a 30 goal guy is wider than the space between Jonas’s buttcheeks, no?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Why be mean? You don’t read your own posts either evidently, hence the fraudulent receipts that the audit turned up.

Here for you again to ignore:

If I have to make a dumb prediction, he's probably a 30+ goal scorer on average, 70-80 points per year once he gets going. Of course, now anything short of that and it'll be "oh, he's a 30 goal scorer in his sleep when he only scored 29 last year!!" or "he's just a sucky 25 goal scorer, nothing like what you thought". So there you go, I've set myself up for the lose-lose, and you've got the win-win where if he flames out, you win and if he's a first line winger, you win.

But as I said, it’s just a dumb prediction, but mostly because the forum is dumb about predictions. I mean, only here does one correctly call Kulemin scoring 30 and then get mocked for a decade for being right, or see people laughed at for calling Antropov a 30 goal scorer when he only scored 29. There is no winning when it comes to optimism around these parts.
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But...is a guy who scores 30 once but averages like 12 goals a season for the rest of a 10 year career really a "30 goal scorer" in any functional sense? When the Islanders picked him up after scoring 7, 7, and 9 goals in the 3 consecutive years after scoring 30, were they getting a "30 goal scorer"? Of course they weren't, despite him after having had one weirdo outlier season where he did it.

So when I say that I expect Knies to be a 40-55 point player based on his statistical comparables from the NCAA, take a look at a guy like Krieder's entire life until he had a weirdo post 30 breakout, ~25/50 pretty much every year. Take a look at JVR. In a 15 yr career JVR scored more than 55 points in a season 3 times. That's what I'm projecting Knies as.

30+ goals on average and 70-80 points is basically what Tavares has done as a Leaf fwiw. If you're projecting Knies as that, great. I think it's nuts, but whatever, great. I hope he does it and shuts me up.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
The chasm between a 40 point guy and a 30 goal guy is wider than the space between Jonas’s buttcheeks, no?
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I wouldn't bet against Knies scoring 30 once or more in his career. But on average, I've got him in that Kreider/JVR type zone personally. Which is hardly an insult.

40 points is the lower end of my guesstimate, which puts him closer to Nino Niederreiter territory (42 point pace over his career).

So I'm saying that the low end of my projection is a really good middle 6 winger that is big, physical and scored 20-25 a year like clockwork and the upside is a guy who is more in the 25 range on average, which means flirting with 30 in his best years.
 
MindzEye said:
But...is a guy who scores 30 once but averages like 12 goals a season for the rest of a 10 year career really a "30 goal scorer" in any functional sense? When the Islanders picked him up after scoring 7, 7, and 9 goals in the 3 consecutive years after scoring 30, were they getting a "30 goal scorer"? Of course they weren't, despite him after having had one weirdo outlier season where he did it.

So when I say that I expect Knies to be a 40-55 point player based on his statistical comparables from the NCAA, take a look at a guy like Krieder's entire life until he had a weirdo post 30 breakout, ~25/50 pretty much every year. Take a look at JVR. In a 15 yr career JVR scored more than 55 points in a season 3 times. That's what I'm projecting Knies as.

30+ goals on average and 70-80 points is basically what Tavares has done as a Leaf fwiw. If you're projecting Knies as that, great. I think it's nuts, but whatever, great. I hope he does it and shuts me up.
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Truth be told, I had to take my forced prediction up because your revised prediction was suddenly predicting a first line 30 goal winger!!

That’s why I don’t give a shit about making or getting predictions. Great is fucking great. Tavares is one of the best players in the league, we can all accept that if we’re sane. I don’t care if some years he scores 27 and other years he scores 47. Similarly, I don’t care if Knies scores 20 this year and 40 next year and 30 the year after. Overall, he looks like an awesome player, and awesome players have both up and down seasons, but still always pretty good even at their worst.

So just enjoy it, as I keep saying. And if you gotta say, shit, that eye test really kicked ass over all other measurement criteria, it won’t kill you, and I will say it enough for both of us anyway. HL called it, plain and simple.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Truth be told, I had to take my forced prediction up because your revised prediction was suddenly predicting a first line 30 goal winger!!

That’s why I don’t give a shit about making or getting predictions. Great is fucking great. Tavares is one of the best players in the league, we can all accept that if we’re sane. I don’t care if some years he scores 27 and other years he scores 47. Similarly, I don’t care if Knies scores 20 this year and 40 next year and 30 the year after. Overall, he looks like an awesome player, and awesome players have both up and down seasons, but still always pretty good even at their worst.

So just enjoy it, as I keep saying. And if you gotta say, shit, that eye test really kicked ass over all other measurement criteria, it won’t kill you, and I will say it enough for both of us anyway. HL called it, plain and simple.
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Well, call me when he does more than 50-60% of what you think he's already accomplished.

I'm just taking issue with people continuously dunking on me as if I've insulted him by comparing his upside to some very good winger, when the kid is on a 16 goal pace in his NHL career so far with lackluster play driving analytics.
 
MindzEye said:
Well, call me when he does more than 50-60% of what you think he's already accomplished.

I'm just taking issue with people continuously dunking on me as if I've insulted him by comparing his upside to some very good winger, when the kid is on a 16 goal pace in his NHL career so far with lackluster play driving analytics.
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There you go putting him down again.
 
i've been really consistent for the last couple years in how i've described him. always included complementary in my descriptions.

the 22g comment just definitely confused me if you were talking about this year because I’d even say I underestimated him if he got 22g this year.
 
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