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No Excuses No Limits! The mother fucking goddamn season thread

zeke said:

View: https://x.com/lukefoxjukebox/status/1878862571048157266
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code for "we're not in on the Vancouver talks" I guess, but honestly with what the Leafs have to offer other teams...no kidding.

team doesn't have the organizational depth to make another ROR type trade right now. moves like Gourde for a pick etc are more feasible though...improves the crappy lower half of the roster without giving up a Knies/1st/etc

if they can get even a decent 3C it will make a big difference
 
Volcanologist said:
team doesn't have the organizational depth to make another ROR type trade right now.
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I mean they do though.

Volcanologist said:
moves like Gourde for a pick etc are more feasible though...improves the crappy lower half of the roster without giving up a Knies/1st/etc

if they can get even a decent 3C it will make a big difference
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tbh i don't even think 3C should be the priority. we have a good offensive 3rd line already (despite their weirdly ice cold start this year), and the #1, #2, and #4 Cs are all guys you can trust in the dzone, so sheltering the third line a bit shouldn't really be a problem. The Stars made it to the 3rd round with Domi as the 3C, and he led their team in EV scoring.

Personally I'd be targeting a quality Dman.
 
2026 1st, robbie and minten should be able to net us anything we want on the trade market.

Just depends if we want to make a move like that.
 
leafman101 said:
Lilly with Sharks (Rank on Leafs D)
G/60: 0.35 (1st)
p1/60: 0.47 (3rd)
relxGF/60: 0.42 (1st)
ozone+/-: -4.84 (4th)
xGAR/60: 0.35 (3rd)


Leafs biggest need? Top 4 RHD.
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We're one of the dumbest 5 organizations in the league, hands down. We're being saved by 3 banger lottery picks from almost a decade ago now.
 
Yeah, this one’s silly. He’s the #4 dman on the worst team in the league.

You can’t extrapolate his gf/60 at all given the randomness of defensive gf outside of a few elite guys. He had a few goals quickly in his tenure and now has 1g (and 4 pts) in his past 18 gp.

The xgf rel suggests decent d zone work but he’s also not getting the toughies (which for whatever reason are going to Ceci).

Right now he is a 25 year old with some upside but generously a 4/5 dman and most likely a 6/7 guy b
 
EV TOI

NOV (15gms): 1. Ceci 19:02, 2. Ferraro 18:39, 3.Walman 18:01, 4. Liljegren 17:00, 5. Thrun 15:36, 6. Rutta 14:17, 7. Thompson 13:24
Since DEC1 (17gms): 1.Ceci 18:27, 2.Ferraro 17:25, 3.Walman 17:24, 4. Thrun 16:53, 5. Liljegren 15:58, 6. Rutta 15:15, 7. Mukhmadulin 14:32
 
If he isn't careful he will end up on the bottom pair of the worst team in the league. Those are exactly the type of dmen we target at the deadline.
 
mbow30 said:
but he’s also not getting the toughies (which for whatever reason are going to Ceci).
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This remains incorrect.

Ferraro-Lilly take the toughs. Ceci is Walman's babysitter, similar to how he was used with Rielly in Toronto.

Defensive zone starts/60

Liljegren: 9.92 (2nd)
Ceci: 7.57 (5th)

Defensive zone faceoffs/60

Liljegren: 19.73 (2nd)
Ceci: 17.69 (5th)
 
Fwiw, I don't think he's the answer on our 2nd pairing right now. I just think it's very Leafy that we somehow managed him off of the roster while managing someone like Benoit onto it.
 
zeke said:
tbh i don't even think 3C should be the priority. we have a good offensive 3rd line already (despite their weirdly ice cold start this year), and the #1, #2, and #4 Cs are all guys you can trust in the dzone, so sheltering the third line a bit shouldn't really be a problem. The Stars made it to the 3rd round with Domi as the 3C, and he led their team in EV scoring.

Personally I'd be targeting a quality Dman.
Click to expand...

they need that too but Domi has been pretty underwhelming here for most of his time as a Leaf. I really don't think what he did with Dallas has a) carried over or is b) relevant to what happens here in the next few months. for me it's a pretty disappointing signing tbh.

they need skill on the blueline as well but for me it ranks behind being able to create 3 scoring lines by playing the top 3 guys on different lines.
 
I think we're probably taking his production as a Leaf for granted tbh.


5v5

Domi 23-24: 2.56p/60, 1.74p1/60 --- Plyff: 2.02p/60, 1.01p1/60
Domi 24-25: 1.71p/60, 1.37p1/60

2yrs p/60

1. McDavid 3.22
2. Kucherov 3.03
3. MacKinnon 2.99
4. Panarin 2.76
5. Matthews 2.74

11. Marner 2.60

18. Ehlers 2.43
19. Domi 2.42
20. Barkov 2.39
20. Guentzel 2.39
20. Stone 2.39

48. Nylander 2.18


p1/60

1. Matthews 2.41
2. McDavid 2.34
3. Kucherov 2.32
4. Pastrnak 2.24
5. Kaprizov 2.12

~ 25. Marner 1.90
~ 25. Nylander 1.88
~ 35. Domi 1.78




He (and the other 3rd liners) did have a ridiculously cold first ~20gms of the year but they all seem to be back on track now.


Look around the league and you might be surprised as to what the contenders have as their 3Cs, even their 2Cs.
 
IMO Domi is actually better at C than wing.

There is no perfect way to measure it, but he’s probably played the majority of his C minutes over the last two years with Robbie.

Domi w Robby: 458:34 mins, 53.86% xGF, 0.52 g/60, 1.96 p1/60
Domi w/o Robby: 953:24 mins, 49.87% xGF, 0.44 g/60, 1.70 p1/60


Ideally you don’t have to shelter your 3rd line though.
 
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