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OT: American Politics

LeafOfFaith said:
If he'd step aside to allow a more capable candidate to run in his place, the risk of your fears materializing would be lessened.

The fact that he's falling over himself and launched a billion gifs and memes to turn himself into more of a comedic character than a presidential candidate should be a problem for you.
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Got a name?
 
MindzEye said:
But also...so is every other Democratic option

Whitmer is polling worse vs Trump than Biden.
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Obviously. She has zero exposure. That’ll change to the upside from August to November

I see a lot more risk in Biden from here on in
 
I'm a Newsom guy too.

But:

1720486808888.png

and yeah, I've got a whole thesis for why polling is fucking broken so I don't take this at face value personally, but I do see Biden polling 1-3% better than this against Trump.
 
The alternative to laughing is crying. I prefer to laugh no matter how dark the situation is but we all mourn differently. There's something hilarious about this guy being the only thing standing in the way of the end of democracy. We must spend the next few months hope and pray he doesn't trip on his dick any time he opens his mouth (or doesn't open his mouth). God help us all.
 
The entire reason the whole replace Biden is even a thing is because Trump has a better chance against every other candidate. That is why it's being pushed so hard. So it is rather hilarious to see a few people eating it up and saying the must replace Biden, it's the only chance.
 
MindzEye said:
I'm a Newsom guy too.

But:

View attachment 21127

and yeah, I've got a whole thesis for why polling is fucking broken so I don't take this at face value personally, but I do see Biden polling 1-3% better than this against Trump.
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Yeah, I'm not surprised in the slightest by this, and fully expected someone to post. But I'm an eye test guy all the way, and I think Newsom presents as someone who could win. Presentation-wise, he's sort of the Dem version of Romney in my opinion, but on the surface, I think he has what it takes to win. Wouldn't expect him to do a great job once in, but I believe he'd withstand Orange Julius, and also not fart out loud during an important moment at the next debate.
 
CH1 said:
You guys (HL and Manny) seem have a mental block that doesn’t allow you to figure out the simplest of “Biden must go” arguments

We hate Trump
We want Trump to be gutted in November
Biden has become a giant liability to that goal

This election is too important to rely on squeezing the last drops of life from some guy you wouldn’t trust to pick up your dry cleaning
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no, i don't have a "mental block" - i just don't think it's this simple.

i think it's a big risk to have an incumbent step down in july of an election year for, likely, an unpopular black woman and spend another few months litigating that choice instead of talking about the trump threat to democracy, and the world. i get that you think biden's a bigger risk, that's fine. there's no need to act we're imbeciles to be wary of that risk.
 
I don't know if it's their best chance of winning but at this point there's no real upside with Biden. If you believe Biden is way ahead (and maybe he is!) then I get why you'd be hesitant to switch it up. But at this stage all the increased exposure and screen time he'll get leading up to the election is more likely to hurt him than help him. Whereas a sweet talker like Newsom (or literally anyone else and that includes Kamala tbh) can win some people by stomping all over Donald, something Biden simply can't do at this stage. So there's some upside there.
 
CH1 said:
Have you seen any odds of both Biden and Trump not being on the ticket?
#parlayofhope
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I swear a couple of years ago, I thought one or both would be dead by 2024, or that Trump would be in jail and Biden would be dead, or that just Biden would be dead. Biden would be dead dominated all scenarios.

I can't believe the election is only a few months away and one is still as strong as ever despite convictions and the other is still moving around with the help of his trusted puppeteer.
 
Polling is fucked, example #194368


View: https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1810449263479910718

So....we have a choice to believe that 18-29 have shifted 20 fucking points towards the GOP since 2020 (post Roe, etc) and this has shifted poll weightings by 3 points (by itself) or....that PEW doesn't know how to reach young people properly (by mail...) and their sample of 496 is broken by various sampling biases.
 
Preston said:
I don't know if it's their best chance of winning but at this point there's no real upside with Biden. If you believe Biden is way ahead (and maybe he is!) then I get why you'd be hesitant to switch it up. But at this stage all the increased exposure and screen time he'll get leading up to the election is more likely to hurt him than help him. Whereas a sweet talker like Newsom (or literally anyone else and that includes Kamala tbh) can win some people by stomping all over Donald, something Biden simply can't do at this stage. So there's some upside there.
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Kamala would be beat even worse than Biden beat Medicare.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I swear a couple of years ago, I thought one or both would be dead by 2024, or that Trump would be in jail and Biden would be dead, or that just Biden would be dead. Biden would be dead dominated all scenarios.

I can't believe the election is only a few months away and one is still as strong as ever despite convictions and the other is still moving around with the help of his trusted puppeteer.
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The odds of even one of them dying were so incredibly low! At those ages peoples 4 year mortality risks are actually quite low! Why the hell were you so convinced of this?
 
MindzEye said:
Polling is fucked, example #194368


View: https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1810449263479910718

So....we have a choice to believe that 18-29 have shifted 20 fucking points towards the GOP since 2020 (post Roe, etc) and this has shifted poll weightings by 3 points (by itself) or....that PEW doesn't know how to reach young people properly (by mail...) and their sample of 496 is broken by various sampling biases.
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Saw this and was confused because doesn't the next chart say 41% of the people they polled didn't vote in 2020? That seems... really high to be helpful.
 
hockeylover said:
no, i don't have a "mental block" - i just don't think it's this simple.

i think it's a big risk to have an incumbent step down in july of an election year for, likely, an unpopular black woman and spend another few months litigating that choice instead of talking about the trump threat to democracy, and the world. i get that you think biden's a bigger risk, that's fine. there's no need to act we're imbeciles to be wary of that risk.
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That’s fine. Because previously the only responses I got from the BidenStay crowd was a variation of “Trump is no spring chicken either” which adds nothing.

My take is that Biden will step down so I don’t foresee litigation
 
LeafOfFaith said:
I swear a couple of years ago, I thought one or both would be dead by 2024, or that Trump would be in jail and Biden would be dead, or that just Biden would be dead. Biden would be dead dominated all scenarios.

I can't believe the election is only a few months away and one is still as strong as ever despite convictions and the other is still moving around with the help of his trusted puppeteer.
Click to expand...

A lot can happen in 18 weeks
 
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