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OT: American Politics

leafman101 said:
Maybe cause the guy responsible for the messaging is no longer coherent. Its not America's fault he couldn't articulate the success of his presidency at the debate.

Its a popularity contest and his popularity is tanking for legit reasons, people are not confident in his ability to handle the job.
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yah but he's still more popular than all the alternatives. isn't that the salient point?
 
i really liked Kamala back in the 2020 primaries and would've preferred her or Warren to Biden, but for whatever reason (and i have some suspicions) she has absolutely never been popular through any of this. i'd love to be more confident. do i think she'd do a good job? yes.

and she did hit biden hard in that 2020 debate. but it didn't move the needle at all for her.
 
Tldr: keeping Joe is the sweet spot of shared risk.
Replacing him is like taking on a potentially mediocre player (who has more upside but also more downside) with a shit contract.

Thing is the sweet spot of shared risk may not be enough to win if he is already behind now and you're not really giving yourself a shot of winning by playing it "safe" so that in itself is a risk.

Should be good cinema in these next few months. It's more than likely gonna be Joe and he is not gonna magically get sharper. So while it may be thrilling, it may not be easy to watch! Buckle up!
 
Wayward DP said:
and also, while we attempt to sort this out using facts and evidence and polling, in the end, I think most voters will go off of their feels. and who the hell knows how they are feeling, I won't pretend to...
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but a lot of political experts are going around the country scoping out said feelings and finding the situation to be less than ideal for the Dems
 
leafman101 said:
for now. His numbers are worse than Trump and tanking though, with little upside other than "look how bad Trump is", but thats the same argument for any D candidate.
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At least other candidates can communicate this. Without a "come on, man" moment Trump has every edge in the world as the alpha.
 
leafman101 said:
But isn't Old Joe getting destroyed and everyone is just praying that the polling is bad?
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People talk about this incumbency advantage like it’s being up 2-0 with 5 mins left in the third period.

I agree those are great odds!!

But what happens when the other side scores two quick goals and your injured keeper can only lift one of his legs off the ground.

I don’t have all the data but it’s fair to say that the odds have shifted.
 
MindzEye said:
No just no.

But this is part of the problem with replacing Joe. The support isn't going to coalesce, its going to balkanize
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Yep. Not enough runway left at this point for all the various candidates to make their legitimate case for the job, and then for everyone to coalesce around that person.

I guess the counter-point to that is what just happened in France in a very tight time window in order to beat the fascists. But I don’t have any confidence in that kind of thing being pulled off in the US.
 
what really seems like not a good strategy is to have different dems with the knives out every single day for a few months first.

do something decisive and everyone get behind them, or stfu and get behind joe.

this weird oh we have to have a mini primary moderated by katy perry and angels will rejoice and everyone will say joe biden is george washington shit is totally delusional.
 
LeafGm said:
Yep. Not enough runway left at this point for all the various candidates to make their legitimate case for the job, and then for everyone to coalesce around that person.

I guess the counter-point to that is what just happened in France in a very tight time window in order to beat the fascists. But I don’t have any confidence in that kind of thing being pulled off in the US.
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there's lots of runway between August and November

there's really no reason for campaigns to span two years except that's how it has been done traditionally.

a large swatch of key voters will decide in October
 
CH1 said:
People talk about this incumbency advantage like it’s being up 2-0 with 5 mins left in the third period.

I agree those are great odds!!

But what happens when the other side scores two quick goals and your injured keeper can only lift one of his legs off the ground.

I don’t have all the data but it’s fair to say that the odds have shifted.
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Double shift Kampf?
 
hockeylover said:
what really seems like not a good strategy is to have different dems with the knives out every single day for a few months first.

do something decisive and everyone get behind them, or stfu and get behind joe.

this weird oh we have to have a mini primary moderated by katy perry and angels will rejoice and everyone will say joe biden is george washington shit is totally delusional.
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it's less delusional than you thinking Biden is physically/mentally capable of campaigning non stop for 5 months
 
hockeylover said:
what really seems like not a good strategy is to have different dems with the knives out every single day for a few months first.

do something decisive and everyone get behind them, or stfu and get behind joe.

this weird oh we have to have a mini primary moderated by katy perry and angels will rejoice and everyone will say joe biden is george washington shit is totally delusional.
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Lets be honest, the winner of any mini-primary will probably be the one that buries Joe deepest. Its politics.
 
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