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OT: American Politics

CH1 said:
Trump being human garbage with lots of baggage and limited political upside.

His opponent simply needs to appear fully alive for me to be optimistic
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You keep getting on people in this thread for arguments based on feels but then keep offering exactly that.
 
Preston said:
This entire process is riddled with huge risk and that includes if you stick with Biden. I am fully aware of all of the risks involved. And as I stated, if you believe Biden is way ahead right now then I truly understand why you wouldn't want to rock that boat.

But if you think trump is ahead... Well I can't see Biden gaining many supporters between now and the election. I think there are others that can win folks over so while you may be starting at a low point with them, if you rally around them and if they run a solid campaign, anything can happen!
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I think the benefits of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages of Joe being old.

I also think the chaos of a race to replace him would sabotage any potential replacement such that's they'd be starting a lap or two behind the field (i.e. Trump).

and I also don't think Democrat (and non-fascist) voters are going to coalesce around any single potential candidate more than old man Joe, despite his decline.
 
Preston said:
She'd crush him like Biden crushed him in the 2020 debates. She's sharp and unlike Biden, alive and trump is an easy opponent of you are both of those things. I didn't say she'd crush him on election day. I don't know what would happen. As you say, it's risky to switch if you think Biden is ahead right now.
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it wasn't clear you were referring to debates. even then, I'm less certain. but she could likely outperform 2022 sleepy joe, sure.
 
hockeylover said:
You keep getting on people in this thread for arguments based on feels but then keep offering exactly that.
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Sorry, but there’s no reassuring data for an unprecedented situation involving candidates who have yet to be tested on the national stage. One needs to project possible outcomes based on the large set of Trump numbers.

Or one can hope that Biden just had a “bad day” and won’t have another one for the the next 4 months as long as he goes to bed by 7pm every night on the campaign trail
 
Wayward DP said:
it wasn't clear you were referring to debates. even then, I'm less certain. but she could likely outperform 2022 sleepy joe, sure.
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I just read it over and yeah that definitely reads like I said Kamala would win. Oops. Sorry. Yeah I definitely don't think that and trump would definitely be the favorite vs her. But I also think he may be the favorite vs Biden and I guess I have more faith in someone else winning people over than Joe.

But to HLs point, that's all just vibes. I don't think there's necessarily any way to truly know what is best. Unless you have Jedi poll reading abilities and determine that Biden has a huge lead. In that case, keep him!
 
Wayward DP said:
I think the benefits of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages of Joe being old.

I also think the chaos of a race to replace him would sabotage any potential replacement such that's they'd be starting a lap or two behind the field (i.e. Trump).

and I also don't think Democrat (and non-fascist) voters are going to coalesce around any single potential candidate more than old man Joe, despite his decline.
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I keep seeing this repeated but it isn't just this really. Yes he's old but that was the "issue" in 2020. I never took that seriously and neither did most Americans. His issue this year is far more severe than simply being old.
 
leafman101 said:
But isn't Old Joe getting destroyed and everyone is just praying that the polling is bad?
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Joe is still outperforming other potential Dem nominees in the polls though. he's the highest polling Dem.

and the advantages of incumbency I don't think are necessarily always captured in the polls - he has a great record to run on that no other candidate would. and he has actual policy wins that are hugely popular and successful - the problem for the past four years has been messaging.
 
Preston said:
I just read it over and yeah that definitely reads like I said Kamala would win. Oops. Sorry. Yeah I definitely don't think that and trump would definitely be the favorite vs her. But I also think he may be the favorite vs Biden and I guess I have more faith in someone else winning people over than Joe.

But to HLs point, that's all just vibes. I don't think there's necessarily any way to truly know what is best. Unless you have Jedi poll reading abilities and determine that Biden has a huge lead. In that case, keep him!
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OK, fair enough with me.
 
Preston said:
I keep seeing this repeated but it isn't just this really. Yes he's old but that was the "issue" in 2020. I never took that seriously and neither did most Americans. His issue this year is far more severe than simply being old.
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4 years ago he was old in the "grandpa Joe makes a mistake here or there" way. Now it's a lot closer to "what sort of nursing home would grandpa Joe be comfortable in"
 
Preston said:
I keep seeing this repeated but it isn't just this really. Yes he's old but that was the "issue" in 2020. I never took that seriously and neither did most Americans. His issue this year is far more severe than simply being old.
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is it though?

it seems like he has visibly declined from 2018, but that's to be expected for a person his age.

I dunno, when I start worrying about his competency, I come back to his track record. and he has a damn good one. put that on a pedestal and get that out there.

how would you frame the issue this year, specifically? (beyond, "more severe than simply being old").

and also, while we attempt to sort this out using facts and evidence and polling, in the end, I think most voters will go off of their feels. and who the hell knows how they are feeling, I won't pretend to...
 
The position I take is this:

It’s rank fucking insanity to have an 82 year-old man start a 4-year term as POTUS. Or for anyone who’s over 70 years of age to hold the job, period.

Biden should’ve beat Trump, ended the war in Afghanistan, passed his infrastructure bill and then announced he’d be passing the torch to the next generation in time for the Dems to have full, open primaries to pick his successor. If he’d done that, his legacy would be bulletproof.

Now it’s too fucking late, though. Biden being forced offstage instead of gracefully stepping aside, and making a rushed panicked selection to replace him would probably be a disaster.

Now we all just have to hope and pray that Biden’s hubris won’t end democracy in the United States. And that enough people will understand that voting for a dried-up old mummy who’s deteriorating before our eyes is a preferable option to the country turning into a Putin-esque autocratic Christofascist kleptocracy.
 
Wayward DP said:
Joe is still outperforming other potential Dem nominees in the polls though. he's the highest polling Dem.

and the advantages of incumbency I don't think are necessarily always captured in the polls - he has a great record to run on that no other candidate would. and he has actual policy wins that are hugely popular and successful - the problem for the past four years has been messaging.
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Maybe cause the guy responsible for the messaging is no longer coherent. Its not America's fault he couldn't articulate the success of his presidency at the debate.

Its a popularity contest and his popularity is tanking for legit reasons, people are not confident in his ability to handle the job.
 
LeafGm said:
The position I take is this:

It’s rank fucking insanity to have an 82 year-old man start a 4-year term as POTUS. Or for anyone who’s over 70 years of age to hold the job, period.

Biden should’ve beat Trump, ended the war in Afghanistan, passed his infrastructure bill and then announced he’d be passing the torch to the next generation in time for the Dems to have full, open primaries to pick his successor. If he’d done that, his legacy would be bulletproof.

Now it’s too fucking late, though. Biden being forced offstage instead of gracefully stepping aside, and making a rushed panicked selection to replace him would probably be a disaster.

Now we all just have to hope and pray that Biden’s hubris won’t end democracy in the United States. And that enough people will understand that voting for a dried-up old mummy who’s deteriorating before our eyes is a preferable option to the country turning into a Putin-esque autocratic Christofascist kleptocracy.
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yah an 81 year old is playing the world's highest stakes game of chicken with ageing ever and democracy hangs in the brink
 
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