manny
Well-known member
How often do parties replace their nominee because they’re behind in the polls in July?
OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I never thought my prediction was even remotely bold until I posted it here
Preston
MBow30 alt account
That's not what I'm saying at all...
Wayward DP
Well-known member
concerns about Joe's ability to effectively campaign are IMO different (and more valid) than concerns about his governance. and honestly I share some of them after his debate performance.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I never said anything about his ability to govern. He’s done a great job.
manny
Well-known member
it’s a relevant question given the approach you just outlined. Other candidates trail in July for reasons too. Do their parties punt them at the convention for people who don’t have the same issue?
worm
Well-known member
Not if you're maga like CH1
Preston
MBow30 alt account
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Shanaplan finally coming together!!
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I've been planning to lay out exactly why and how I think polling is fucked at the moment but here's the main points in super broad strokes.
1) Flooding the zone is a thing. We know they tried it in 2020, and we know they've redoubled their efforts in 2024. An entire bullshit industrial complex of right wing polling firms have popped up since 2016. This fucks up the poll aggregators when they willingly or not let bullshit data into their averages. Something I've noticed in the last few years is that aggregators like 538 who used to track the quality of polling agencies by their accuracy in predicting the outcome of the election they were polling, have stopped doing that.
2) This is made important because MoE is a thing that can be jobbed if you don't give a fuck about accuracy. Run a truly excellent poll with a ton of effort made to remove various sampling biases and you're still looking at a 2% MoE. But people kind of misunderstand what a 2% MoE means. A full 2% shift in one direction is really 4% off. 51/49 turning into 53/47 is technically within the 2% MoE but that's a pretty massive move that is actually a 4 point swing in total. Fwiw, the MoE I'm seeing in most of the polls I've looked at recently are in the 2.5% range. If you were so inclined you could easily massage your polling numbers to show Trump +3 out of data that if unmassaged was actually a dead heat or even up to Biden +2. It's a fairly easy thing to do as well when you understand sampling bias and how (or how not to) control for it...which leads us to:
3) Landline data collecting is still the backbone of the industry. I'm serious. When was the last time you met someone who still had a landline? Who are these fucking people? We know who they are. They're old and white. Which is fine. Some of my favourite people are old and white. But when you look at the cross tabs, old and white are the only demos where the data doesn't seem to generate some massive fuckiness. Like the mail in poll data I showed yesterday that showed 18-29 year olds going 20 points over to the GOP since 2020 and with 41% of the overall poll respondents claiming to not have voted in the 2020 election. At what point does the craziness break your sample of less than 500 people? This was a poll used for the weighting of other polls ffs. Which leads me into my last main point:
4) The 2020 census was fucked. Everyone involved in it knows it was fucked. The data is shit. Minorities were heavily under counted, white home owners over counted by like 2-4% depending on where you were. All....all of the population modeling the polling agencies use to underpin their data collection is based on 2020 census data.
So yes, I know this seems like wishful thinking but it's wishful thinking in the way of going into a 7 game series as the team with the lower xG but thinking you're still actually the better team because you know the flaws in xG and how your goaltending is way better and you generate way more slot shots, have better special teams, etc and xG isn't properly capturing the story.
hockeylover
Well-known member
Preston
MBow30 alt account
If you're right then we all win. So I hope you're right! I'm not gonna argue for or against any of this as my arguments are more if-then statements.I've been planning to lay out exactly why and how I think polling is fucked at the moment but here's the main points in super broad strokes.
1) Flooding the zone is a thing. We know they tried it in 2020, and we know they've redoubled their efforts in 2024. An entire bullshit industrial complex of right wing polling firms have popped up since 2016. This fucks up the poll aggregators when they willingly or not let bullshit data into their averages. Something I've noticed in the last few years is that aggregators like 538 who used to track the quality of polling agencies by their accuracy in predicting the outcome of the election they were polling, have stopped doing that.
2) This is made important because MoE is a thing that can be jobbed if you don't give a fuck about accuracy. Run a truly excellent poll with a ton of effort made to remove various sampling biases and you're still looking at a 2% MoE. But people kind of misunderstand what a 2% MoE means. A full 2% shift in one direction is really 4% off. 51/49 turning into 53/47 is technically within the 2% MoE but that's a pretty massive move that is actually a 4 point swing in total. Fwiw, the MoE I'm seeing in most of the polls I've looked at recently are in the 2.5% range. If you were so inclined you could easily massage your polling numbers to show Trump +3 out of data that if unmassaged was actually a dead heat or even up to Biden +2. It's a fairly easy thing to do as well when you understand sampling bias and how (or how not to) control for it...which leads us to:
3) Landline data collecting is still the backbone of the industry. I'm serious. When was the last time you met someone who still had a landline? Who are these fucking people? We know who they are. They're old and white. Which is fine. Some of my favourite people are old and white. But when you look at the cross tabs, old and white are the only demos where the data doesn't seem to generate some massive fuckiness. Like the mail in poll data I showed yesterday that showed 18-29 year olds going 20 points over to the GOP since 2020 and with 41% of the overall poll respondents claiming to not have voted in the 2020 election. At what point does the craziness break your sample of less than 500 people? This was a poll used for the weighting of other polls ffs. Which leads me into my last main point:
4) The 2020 census was fucked. Everyone involved in it knows it was fucked. The data is shit. Minorities were heavily under counted, white home owners over counted by like 2-4% depending on where you were. All....all of the population modeling the polling agencies use to underpin their data collection is based on 2020 census data.
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So yes, I know this seems like wishful thinking but it's wishful thinking in the way of going into a 7 game series as the team with the lower xG but thinking you're still actually the better team because you know the flaws in xG and how your goaltending is way better and you generate way more slot shots, have better special teams, etc and xG isn't properly capturing the story.
If Biden is already behind, then there's little reason to keep him in the lineup because it's fair to question is ability to run an inspiring campaign and gain a huge surplus of votes that he may require.
If Biden is way ahead, then there's a good case to keep him and feed him all the PEDs in the world (or stunt doubles!) to ensure he does not blow the lead heading into the final stretch.
hockeylover
Well-known member
There seems like no good reason to wait, if this is in fact the plan.
manny
Well-known member
Another thing Lichtman said is that if Biden is going to drop out of the race, he should resign the presidency right now as well. Why pretend you can run the country if you can’t run a campaign. And vice versa.
I think it’s a good point and also another reason why it’s unlikely Biden drops out of the race.
I think it’s a good point and also another reason why it’s unlikely Biden drops out of the race.
manny
Well-known member
Just imagine the infighting though. The primaries are over, how are they going to choose a successor? Internal polls?
Harris is the only person the party could realistically rally around, just because she’s next in line technically, and I bet if faced with the choice of Biden or Harris, a lot of party insiders would prefer to just stick with Biden. Even if he’s a corpse.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I can’t read any of your shit anymore. Can’t you just admit that Biden has the functioning mind and body of a 22 year old Rhodes scholar and star athlete, is the best candidate, and will for sure win?
You’re just delaying the inevitable.