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OT: American Politics

Why Joe Biden Should Stay in the Race | The Harvard Kenneth C. Griffin Graduate School of Arts and Sciences

American University Professor Allan Lichtman, PhD ’73, who has correctly predicted the results of 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, says that Democrats’ prospects for victory in November would be far worse if Biden stepped aside.
gsas.harvard.edu gsas.harvard.edu

It’s a few days old, but this is a good summary of the main pro-Biden argument, from that history prof who always predicts the winner.
 
I don’t really understand the “don’t look here” mentality to argue against other Democrats that just want them to run a good candidate that can actually win a very important election.

Don’t get me wrong, we all despise CH1 for being the flawed puppet master he is. Buts it’s not his fault Bidens ship is sinking.
 
CH1 said:
if you’ve been paying attention to my prediction, Biden will go out in dignity after a bit of a bounce that includes lots of public love.

You and your cohort here are intellectually dishonest (or clueless) if you think me wanting Joe to step signifies that I get my views from Fox or I think Trump is a great candidate.
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I never suggested any of this. Just that it's absurd to be as "certain" as you appear to be that (a) Biden will be replaced, and that (b) this is a good idea.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen, and that includes you and me. So stop pretending that you do.
 
Wayward DP said:
I'm being sincere and you're refusing to substantiate your feelings so don't get snitty when other folks stop by with mockery...
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It's not that important to me to change your minds plus it would require me sharing clips posted by some junk ass people who celebrate his deterioration. Most of the left don't disagree with me on this topic anyway. Eventually you'll come around.
 
CH1 said:
if you’ve been paying attention to my prediction, Biden will go out in dignity after a bit of a bounce that includes lots of public love.

You and your cohort here are intellectually dishonest (or clueless) if you think me wanting Joe to step signifies that I get my views from Fox or I think Trump is a great candidate.
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has anyone suggested this though?

I think we just disagree in terms of what we think is going to happen the next couple months re: the democratic nomination.

I think it will be Biden, I know you think Biden will gracefully step aside. we won't know who is right for another month or two.

there are pros and cons to both Biden remaining, and withdrawing.

all of the above seems reasonable to me..., no?
 
leafman101 said:
I don’t really understand the “don’t look here” mentality to argue against other Democrats that just want them to run a good candidate that can actually win a very important election.

Don’t get me wrong, we all despise CH1 for being the flawed puppet master he is. Buts it’s not his fault Bidens ship is sinking.
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re the bolded, that's what we all want. the disagreement is about who that person is, and I don't think there will ever be a certain answer. but it's fair to discuss the pros and cons of each.
 
Wayward DP said:
has anyone suggested this though?

I think we just disagree in terms of what we think is going to happen the next couple months re: the democratic nomination.

I think it will be Biden, I know you think Biden will gracefully step aside. we won't know who is right for another month or two.

there are pros and cons to both Biden remaining, and withdrawing.

all of the above seems reasonable to me..., no?
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The only pro of Biden staying that I can think of is if forumice is right that Biden is way ahead at this stage. Or if the dems have some internal data that confirms MEs beliefs. If he's way ahead you probably don't want to rock that boat.

But if he's as behind or even close to as behind as the polls state, I think trying to shoot their shot with another candidate is their best chance of winning. As always it's all about the data but you also have to keep in mind that the more Biden speaks and becomes visible to those who will decide who to vote for closer to October, there is likely only mostly downside to come. No one is going to the booth excited to vote for that. I'm sorry.
 
Yep, I think the disagreement here is mainly over who gives the Dems the better chance to win in November.

That, plus CH1 being uniquely 100% aware of the inevitable outcome. And hey, maybe he’s right.
 
Preston said:
The only pro of Biden staying that I can think of is if forumice is right that Biden is way ahead at this stage. Or if the dems have some internal data that confirms MEs beliefs. If he's way ahead you probably don't want to rock that boat.
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you're just being willfully blind here. I expect better of you!
Preston said:
But if he's as behind or even close to as behind as the polls state, I think trying to shoot their shot with another candidate is their best chance of winning.
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and I've been clear that I disagree on this. as do many folks here and in America! which is okay.
Preston said:
As always it's all about the data but you also have to keep in mind that the more Biden speaks and becomes visible to those who will decide who to vote for closer to October, there is likely only mostly downside to come.
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this is your assessment. fair enough. I think your assessment is reasonable, but far from certain. it remains to be seen whether 'Biden is old' was fully baked into previous and current polling, or not. if the latter, you may be correct. if the former, your concerns are likely overstated.
Preston said:
No one is going to the booth excited to vote for that. I'm sorry.
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this concerns me less. lotsa folks held their noses and voted Biden in 2020. and I don't even know that I agree. recent polling shows a massive enthusiasm edge for Dems over Rs.

we just need enough people to show up to say 'fuck no' to autocracy. France, Poland, and the UK provide encouraging data points on this. I'm not gonna claim its in the bag, I'm nervous as fuck. but I don't accept that Biden is a guaranteed L as the candidate, far from it.
 
manny said:
Yep, I think the disagreement here is mainly over who gives the Dems the better chance to win in November.

That, plus CH1 being uniquely 100% aware of the inevitable outcome. And hey, maybe he’s right.
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he'll get to have quite the victory dance if so
 
Wayward DP said:
has anyone suggested this though?

I think we just disagree in terms of what we think is going to happen the next couple months re: the democratic nomination.

I think it will be Biden, I know you think Biden will gracefully step aside. we won't know who is right for another month or two.

there are pros and cons to both Biden remaining, and withdrawing.

all of the above seems reasonable to me..., no?
Click to expand...
I think we all agree that Joe Biden has been slowly deteriorating over the last few years, which is not unsurprising for an 81-year-old man. What I take objection to is this notion that Presto and CH1 seem to be championing, which is that suddenly he's completely lost his mind. And this seems to be solely because he had a bad debate.

I don't see evidence for that, and I watched the debate from start to finish. The man kicked ass in the State of the Union speech, and had an awful debate. This doesn't mean that he was the world's most lucid and energetic genius in January, and has completely lost his fucking marbles now.

It's just as ridiculous to suggest the latter as it is the former.
 
Wayward DP said:
has anyone suggested this though?

I think we just disagree in terms of what we think is going to happen the next couple months re: the democratic nomination.

I think it will be Biden, I know you think Biden will gracefully step aside. we won't know who is right for another month or two.

there are pros and cons to both Biden remaining, and withdrawing.

all of the above seems reasonable to me..., no?
Click to expand...

I don’t see a lot of pros tbh
 
and of course the caveat to all of this is that our logic really doesn't matter that much when it comes to fucking human beings and their electoral choices
 
Wayward DP said:
I am quite content to simply acknowledge we disagree on this. I listed a bunch of them earlier, others have done the same, but no need to beat a dead horse
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but what if that dead horse has parkinson's dementia alzheimers and just escaped from the set of Night of the Living Dead?
 
leafman101 said:
I don’t really understand the “don’t look here” mentality to argue against other Democrats that just want them to run a good candidate that can actually win a very important election.
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I guess the counter argument is that there aren't really (m)any good candidates and people are unsure if any of them can actually win.

If we just peruse the obvious candidates

- Kamala Harris has never been very popular and was the VP pick to lock down the female black vote. She has a pretty dodgy history as a DA in California for progressives and hasn't really raised her profile much in the last 4 years, if at all. Remember, she flamed out very quickly in her 2020 run at the nomination for a reason.

- Gavin Newsom looks like he was picked out of central casting as the POTUS in a big budget disaster movie, and I personally love the fact that he punches back aggressively at the fashy's. A california democrat isn't exactly an archetype the rust belt swing states are going to fawn over and progressives don't actually love him. He would have to do a whole lot of work real quickly to get multiple parts of the Biden coalition to show up for him on Nov 5, even with inheriting the work the Biden campaign has done to raise a massive amount of funds so far (which yeah, is another thing Biden isn't getting credit for right now)

- Whitmer? You're going to pardon me if I think the American media is going to give a barely known female governor a fair shake if she's coming off of the bench to run a red zone offence against Trump down the stretch. Fwiw, I don't know if any other strategically important D Governor without a national profile (Shapiro, Prizker, Beshear) is the right air drop play.

Only one who I think is capable of picking up steam against Trump is Newsom. But I don't think the "California" brand is particularly strong across the country right now and he could pretty easily drown under what would almost definitely be media coverage showing how California is teetering on the brink of a homeless apocolypse under him, etc. It wouldn't be a contest of litigating Trump's plan for America, it would turn into a contest of litigating Newsom's record in California, done through the MSM's lens.
 
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axlsalinger said:
I think we all agree that Joe Biden has been slowly deteriorating over the last few years, which is not unsurprising for an 81-year-old man. What I take objection to is this notion that Presto and CH1 seem to be championing, which is that suddenly he's completely lost his mind. And this seems to be solely because he had a bad debate.

I don't see evidence for that, and I watched the debate from start to finish. The man kicked ass in the State of the Union speech, and had an awful debate. This doesn't mean that he was the world's most lucid and energetic genius in January, and has completely lost his fucking marbles now.

It's just as ridiculous to suggest the latter as it is the former.
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Hur's transcript of his interview was like that too. Definitely old man moments espcally on dates but not to ths lvl.
 
Wayward DP said:
you're just being willfully blind here. I expect better of you!

and I've been clear that I disagree on this. as do many folks here and in America! which is okay.

this is your assessment. fair enough. I think your assessment is reasonable, but far from certain. it remains to be seen whether 'Biden is old' was fully baked into previous and current polling, or not. if the latter, you may be correct. if the former, your concerns are likely overstated.

this concerns me less. lotsa folks held their noses and voted Biden in 2020. and I don't even know that I agree. recent polling shows a massive enthusiasm edge for Dems over Rs.

we just need enough people to show up to say 'fuck no' to autocracy. France, Poland, and the UK provide encouraging data points on this. I'm not gonna claim its in the bag, I'm nervous as fuck. but I don't accept that Biden is a guaranteed L as the candidate, far from it.
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The core of my argument is not that another candidate will 100% outperform Biden. I don't think that's a lock at all and truthfully don't know that. It's that if Biden is already behind, I don't love his odds of coming back and beating Trump compared to someone else coming back and beating Trump, even if they start at a lower point. August-September is when running a proper campaign really matters and I'm under the belief that literally any other potential dem nominee can do a better job than Biden.


But if forumice is right and Biden is already way ahead then obviously you keep him in the lineup and hope he doesn't trip on his dick too much. He's still a decent reader so give him some scripts, teleprompters, PEDs, anything you need to get him to the finish line.

That's all.
 
axlsalinger said:
What I take objection to is this notion that Presto and CH1 seem to be championing, which is that suddenly he's completely lost his mind. And this seems to be solely because he had a bad debate.
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Nope. I’m not a cognitive expert. I never said he lost his mind.. . Only that it appears that he might be losing his mind.

Optics matter. Like I said, I’m not a cognitive expert. And neither are 99.8% of voters
 
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