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OT: American Politics

CH1 said:
I guess the idea is that a bunch of “smart money” is betting on this in real time but I figure it’s some degenerate gambler in his basement buying in at .62 hoping to make a quick 15%
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The only smart money are the people with deep understanding of the polling industry, political insiders, etc.

Yeah, it's just gambling addicts looking for a new fix during the day when there are no games on.
 
lecoqsportif said:
He’s right. Nobody would have reported on this. Even the old Twitter. Not a peep.
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They’re taking offense to “loud noises”… none of these idiots ever bothered to a take a 3hr course in journalism where you learn you can’t report speculation as truth until it’s verified
 
CH1 said:
I guess the idea is that a bunch of “smart money” is betting on this in real time but I figure it’s some degenerate gambler in his basement buying in at .62 hoping to make a quick 15%
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Like when meaningless news helps a stock pump. The news itself doesn't matter. It's playing the hype and trying to make some $$$ off it. It's interesting to see the lines move! And yes, smart money is absolutely making money off these pumps!
 
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Preston said:
Like when meaningless news helps a stock pump. The news itself doesn't matter. It's playing the hype and trying to make some $$$ off it. It's interesting to see the lines move! And yes, smart money is absolutely making money off these pumps!
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Agreed.

On a more important note, any strategies on how to tune out. We’re still in the first inning and I already want to leave
 
CH1 said:
I guess the idea is that a bunch of “smart money” is betting on this in real time but I figure it’s some degenerate gambler in his basement buying in at .62 hoping to make a quick 15%
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Had no idea you lived in a basement
 
CH1 said:
Agreed.

On a more important, any strategies on how to tune out. We’re still in the first inning and I already want to leave
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I liked the Biden dementia and Biden comeback story news cycles a shit ton. This one is gonna be horrendous and tough to avoid. Too many people I "follow" for unrelated topics are already blabbering about it.
 
That BBC interview is ridiculous. The witness keep shouting at the authorities and pointing to the shooter for like a couple of minutes and then wondered why Trump was still speaking.
 
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MindzEye said:
This isn't sports though. Vegas at best is just another poll aggregator here.
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Once you realize the odds are like stocks and not necessarily symbolic of the real truth (because the truth is arbitrary), the odds will have a different meaning.

You'll find they're at their most accurate to reality during slower news cycles. The pump and dumps on individual pieces of news are no different than stocks, which is interesting to me. That's why I posed it!
 
Preston said:
I liked the Biden dementia and Biden comeback story news cycles a shit ton. This one is gonna be horrendous and tough to avoid. Too many people I "follow" for unrelated topics are already blabbering about it.
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I thought the first 10 seconds of the debate when I yelled to myself “democracy is over” would be the low point
 
Preston said:
Once you realize the odds are like stocks and not necessarily symbolic of the real truth (because the truth is arbitrary), the odds will have a different meaning.

You'll find they're at their most accurate to reality during slower news cycles. The pump and dumps on individual pieces of news are no different than stocks, which is interesting to me. That's why I posed it!
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Never thought of it that way but makes perfect sense, in volatile micro moments, emotions are 100x as important as the fundamentals
 
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