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OT: American Politics

Wayward DP said:

View: https://x.com/umairh/status/1813579351352647985
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My concern is that the Democrats just aren't capable of this. They'd break into factions arguing about their pet personal issues right up until they're screaming at each other about whose fault it is they're standing by a wall in front of a firing squard.

It's purity tests on top of purity tests. There is no core organizing theme, or mythos.

I think Democrat voters are capable of it, no less than Maga voters are. A lot of the data suggests they're dying to do just that. The democratic party though? Yeah, no. Professional losers.
 
MindzEye said:
It's a big tent containing about 60% of Americans and the Dems manage to splinter the fuck out of it. They let these tiny special interest groups suck up all of the messaging oxygen and all of the media attention.
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As I said previously the GOP welcome a cluster of single issue voters

You just have to click one to get their love

Abortion
Guns
Low Taxes
No Environmental Regulations
White people first
Don’t get involved overseas
Jesus

Probably missing a bunch
 
MindzEye said:
My concern is that the Democrats just aren't capable of this. They'd break into factions arguing about their pet personal issues right up until they're screaming at each other about whose fault it is they're standing by a wall in front of a firing squard.

It's purity tests on top of purity tests. There is no core organizing theme, or mythos.

I think Democrat voters are capable of it, no less than Maga voters are. A lot of the data suggests they're dying to do just that. The democratic party though? Yeah, no. Professional losers.
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I mean maybe but let's be honest the only reason the dems aren't well ahead at the moment is because Biden is dying in slow motion.
 
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Alright...another post where I bitch about polling, but this time I brought backup:

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com www.dropbox.com

That's the report referenced the other day on there being no actual shift in voting preferences due to Biden's debate performance.

This is who CHIP50 is:

1721235874075.png

Researchers represent Harvard, Northeastern, Northwestern, Rutgers, NYU, Cornell, Penn State, UWash, Stanford, UofMinn, UPenn, UCBerkley and a bag more. So as a group they're not quite as impressive as Nate Silver....but pretty pretty good still.

Here's some of the meat from the report mentioned:

1721237361810.png

Break

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Break

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So basically, the entire Oldmageddon thing was a bad data and bad media driven circus that is still fucking reverberating today and it's the data being used by Biden's opponents within the democratic party to try to remove him.
 
leafman101 said:
No, but I think the more important question is will they vote. Having a candidate that the majority of dems think is senile and not capable of serving might not encourage turnout.
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I have no data so I'm only going by feels. But yeah, I think the real issue right now are the folks that are on the fence between Biden and not voting as opposed to those on the fence between Biden and Trump.

In 2020 there was a fuckton of excitement to get Trump out which is always gonna help with turnout. Having an uninspiring dying candidate this time around could cost them.
 
Wayward DP said:
eh I don't think I buy this. Biden's polling has lagged his objective performance his entire term...
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Because he is old as fuck. No one ever liked Joe, Trump was just so toxic. At the end of the day presidential elections are no different than class president elections. It’s all vibes.

That’s why $1 beer works.
 
Who in the world is on the fence between Trump and Biden? How can there be such a thing as an undecided in today's fucked up world?

I'm the most moderate person I know. I don't think I can name anyone else that I know who is somewhere in the middle. Everyone is on one extreme or the other.
 
Preston said:
I have no data so I'm only going by feels. But yeah, I think the real issue right now are the folks that are on the fence between Biden and not voting as opposed to those on the fence between Biden and Trump.

In 2020 there was a fuckton of excitement to get Trump out which is always gonna help with turnout. Having an uninspiring dying candidate this time around could cost them.
Click to expand...

View: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C8GbNXrRroW/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Dying. Please. Just getting started.
 
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