OT: American Politics

[MindzEye]

I mean maybe but let's be honest the only reason the dems aren't well ahead at the moment is because Biden is dying in slow motion.

How do we know this is actually true other than vibes?

The only data that suggests this is the survey questions regarding his age coming back with a majority saying they're concerned about it. But then he continues to out poll other major Dems.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

So this means you're undecided! You can't pick between the two!

I pick to support neither! I'm also not going to go waste my time standing in some fucking line for an hour to vote on some 100 year old machine for anybody when the winner is already decided here long before the first vote is even cast.

 

[worm]

That’s his been his evil plan all along

“When I die, so does America”

That's how democracy ends, not with a bang, but a senile whimper

 

[worm]

I pick to support neither! I'm also not going to go waste my time standing in some fucking line for an hour to vote on some 100 year old machine for anybody when the winner is already decided here long before the first vote is even cast.

Next election your vote won't matter either... For different reasons though

 

[zeke]

How do we know this is actually true other than vibes?

The only data that suggests this is the survey questions regarding his age coming back with a majority saying they're concerned about it. But then he continues to out poll other major Dems.

there's been a solid 2pt shift in the polls since that debate. no shift in downballot dems, who are all outpolling him handily.

 

[zeke]

and i'm not saying there's another good dem candidate who will necessarily do better than Biden. but his physical slippage is the only reason he's not comfortably in the lead right now imo.

 

[CH1]

I pick to support neither! I'm also not going to go waste my time standing in some fucking line for an hour to vote on some 100 year old machine for anybody when the winner is already decided here long before the first vote is even cast.

You’ve wasted 211.5 hours defending John Tavares

 

[MindzEye]

there's been a solid 2pt shift in the polls since that debate.

Nah, check the report I posted on the last page.

 

[MindzEye]

You’ve wasted 211.5 hours defending John Tavares

Time spent defending the people you love is never wasted.

 

[worm]

In 2020 there was a fuckton of excitement to get Trump out which is always gonna help with turnout. Having an uninspiring dying candidate this time around could cost them.

Maybe but since 2020 Joe has killed it economy and policy wise while trump dog attempted a coup, became a convict, took away abortion, etc.

At worst I gotta figure that balances things out but probably actually makes it more excitement to keep Trump out.

 

[zeke]

Nah, check the report I posted on the last page.

i mean i've been following 4 polling averages daily for months now. they all show the same thing.

 

[Preston]

Maybe but since 2020 Joe has killed it economy and policy wise while trump dog attempted a coup, became a convict, took away abortion, etc.

At worst I gotta figure that balances things out but probably actually makes it more excitement to keep Trump out.

The average person doesn't really follow this stuff like forumice does. They see him as nothing more than a corpse. It's the "at least he's not Trump" thesis carrying the big load here. It may be enough of course. We'll see!

 

[LeafOfFaith]

You’ve wasted 211.5 hours defending John Tavares

I support him!

 

[Wayward DP]

Alright...another post where I bitch about polling, but this time I brought backup:

Dropbox

www.dropbox.com

That's the report referenced the other day on there being no actual shift in voting preferences due to Biden's debate performance.

This is who CHIP50 is:

View attachment 21267

Researchers represent Harvard, Northeastern, Northwestern, Rutgers, NYU, Cornell, Penn State, UWash, Stanford, UofMinn, UPenn, UCBerkley and a bag more. So as a group they're not quite as impressive as Nate Silver....but pretty pretty good still.

Here's some of the meat from the report mentioned:

View attachment 21268

Break

View attachment 21269


Break

View attachment 21270


So basically, the entire Oldmageddon thing was a bad data and bad media driven circus that is still fucking reverberating today and it's the data being used by Biden's opponents within the democratic party to try to remove him.

the final chart there is really something

 

[Wayward DP]

I have no data so I'm only going by feels. But yeah, I think the real issue right now are the folks that are on the fence between Biden and not voting as opposed to those on the fence between Biden and Trump.

In 2020 there was a fuckton of excitement to get Trump out which is always gonna help with turnout. Having an uninspiring dying candidate this time around could cost them.

so, the counterpoint to this is that in pretty much every election since 2020, Dems have enjoyed a big voter enthusiasm advantage vs. Rs. which is a an about face from previous norms.

 

[Preston]

I support him!

I'm on the fence

 

[Wayward DP]

Because he is old as fuck. No one ever liked Joe, Trump was just so toxic. At the end of the day presidential elections are no different than class president elections. It’s all vibes.

That’s why $1 beer works.

right, so has anything really changed four years later?

 

[Wayward DP]

So this means you're undecided! You can't pick between the two!

I don't know how anyone can still be an undecided voter, the undecided voter says.

 

[Wayward DP]

I pick to support neither! I'm also not going to go waste my time standing in some fucking line for an hour to vote on some 100 year old machine for anybody when the winner is already decided here long before the first vote is even cast.

(you can vote by mail!)

 

[LeafOfFaith]

The average person doesn't really follow this stuff like forumice does. They see him as nothing more than a corpse. It's the "at least he's not Trump" thesis carrying the big load here. It may be enough of course. We'll see!

Does it even matter what either of them do?? How often does a voter switch over? They picked their guy four years ago and now they're just going to have a re-vote and hope that all the young first time voters outnumber all the voters that have died in the last four years.

This is one big fat turd of a reality show that sells ads through news programs, social media, etc.