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OT: American Politics

zeke said:
and i'm not saying there's another good dem candidate who will necessarily do better than Biden. but his physical slippage is the only reason he's not comfortably in the lead right now imo.
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gonna respectfully disagree here.

he's been polling poorly for years. the physical slippage has been much talked about but prior to the debate I don't think it was widely taken seriously.
 
worm said:
Maybe but since 2020 Joe has killed it economy and policy wise while trump dog attempted a coup, became a convict, took away abortion, etc.

At worst I gotta figure that balances things out but probably actually makes it more excitement to keep Trump out.
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the problem is that the average voter in the US, I suspect, is aware of at most a teensy percentage of this...
 
Preston said:
The average person doesn't really follow this stuff like forumice does. They see him as nothing more than a corpse. It's the "at least he's not Trump" thesis carrying the big load here. It may be enough of course. We'll see!
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You'd be surprised how many ppl care about abortions.
 
Preston said:
The average person doesn't really follow this stuff like forumice does. They see him as nothing more than a corpse. It's the "at least he's not Trump" thesis carrying the big load here. It may be enough of course. We'll see!
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there is a fundamental disconnect though. cause these folks will say, 'local economy, great. state economy, great. federally? oh fuck, old man Joe'.

I agree its a real issue and I wish I knew how to dispel the myths and get through to folks about reality. the failure to do so could be catastrophic.
 
Wayward DP said:
so, the counterpoint to this is that in pretty much every election since 2020, Dems have enjoyed a big voter enthusiasm advantage vs. Rs. which is a an about face from previous norms.
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I'm just providing a counter argument to the (imo) overly optimistic takes here. Whether the polls are right or completely wrong, this is all just way too close for comfort vs an absolutely horrible candidate that should be easily beaten. And in my opinion an inspiring candidate that isn't dying would be performing better than Joey. Not saying they should for switch him out but I'm not feeling great about this right now!
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Does it even matter what either of them do?? How often does a voter switch over? They picked their guy four years ago and now they're just going to have a re-vote and hope that all the young first time voters outnumber all the voters that have died in the last four years.

This is one big fat turd of a reality show that sells ads through news programs, social media, etc.
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I think you'd be surprised.

and there are enough, with the expected margins, that it could potentially swing a key state one way or the other.
 
I’ll worry about the polls and whether they’re real in October. Summer polling in presidential election years is not very predictive.

Big picture, Trump lost to Biden last time, now the incumbent advantage (which is yuge) is with the other guy, and I really don’t think Trump has done anything in the last 4 years to build his constituency.
 
Wayward DP said:
the problem is that the average voter in the US, I suspect, is aware of at most a teensy percentage of this...
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Dems gotta promote this stuff but haven't the Dems been destroying everything over abortion since that case?

I get that maybe some don't know about the economy etc but how could they not know about Jan 6 and abortion?
 
worm said:
You'd be surprised how many ppl care about abortions.
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Sure but ultimately the guy who gets more votes is typically that guy that people would prefer to grab a beer with. But yes, the abortion issue is a big one. Women may save America. No pressure!
 
Preston said:
I'm just providing a counter argument to the (imo) overly optimistic takes here. Whether the polls are right or completely wrong, this is all just way too close for comfort vs an absolutely horrible candidate that should be easily beaten. And in my opinion an inspiring candidate that isn't dying would be performing better than Joey. Not saying they should for switch him out but I'm not feeling great about this right now!
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yah the concerns are fair, no doubt.

I just fundamentally disagree that any random Dem can all of a sudden swoop in and outperform Joe. everyone polls better until they're under the spotlight. Kamala shat the bed really fucking epically in 2020, everyone seems to forget that. voters really disliked her then, and many still do.

they all have their warts.

and none of them can point to the record Joe can. I know, no one seems to care.

plus, the media is driving the narrative anyways here, and they're not gonna shift to focus on Trump's autocratic and fascistic desires and policies, it will just be another four months of "Dems in disarray".

plus, if Joe pulls out, the Dems would all start fucking knifing each other. gonna leave some blood stains. I don't know that four months is enough time to clean them up!
 
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