OT: American Politics

[MindzEye]

i mean i've been following 4 polling averages daily for months now. they all show the same thing.

Because they're all based on the same polls.

What if the polls are fucked, like they've largely been fucked since 2016?

 

[zeke]

gonna respectfully disagree here.

he's been polling poorly for years. the physical slippage has been much talked about but prior to the debate I don't think it was widely taken seriously.

don't understimate how many aisles Biden crosses as a candidate. not sure there's another Dem with as broad a tent.

 

[Habsy]

I found that video quite informative.

 

[Bleedsblue&white]

wow, this is probably the most offensive and insensitive comment you have made yet. your sexism is showing.

Honestly, when I read it my first thought was we should have a smilie to denote fishing, easier than a troll under a bridge.

 

[MindzEye]

and i'm not saying there's another good dem candidate who will necessarily do better than Biden. but his physical slippage is the only reason he's not comfortably in the lead right now imo.

That's probably fair. But then the core problem is that the Dems need to recognize that and circle the fucking wagons, get on point with their messaging and prop him up where they can. Not circle Biden and pull the knives out.

 

[CH1]

I’ll worry about the polls and whether they’re real in October. Summer polling in presidential election years is not very predictive.

Big picture, Trump lost to Biden last time, now the incumbent advantage (which is yuge) is with the other guy, and I really don’t think Trump has done anything in the last 4 years to build his constituency.

Is it really the incumbent advantage when Trump is also an incumbent

IMO, a big part of incumbent advantage is the fear of the unknown

Also helps if your incumbent isn’t being undermined every single day from members of his own team

 

[Wayward DP]

I don’t know, but I’m pretty sure 2/3 of democrats and his closest party allies didn’t want him to step aside for Bernie.

from 2019:

A lot of rank-and-file voters do have concerns about Biden’s age. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in February found that 62 percent of voters had reservations about voting for someone aged 75 or older. Other polls have also shown advanced age to be a concern among Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.

 

[MindzEye]

Women are the most easily manipulated by pearl-clutching, for sure. They can be relied upon to swing liberal.

Having religiously driven politics get involved in your healthcare = pearl clutching

 

[Wayward DP]

don't understimate how many aisles Biden crosses as a candidate. not sure there's another Dem with as broad a tent.

I don't! which is why I think he's still the best bet to win

 

[Wayward DP]

Honestly, when I read it my first thought was we should have a smilie to denote fishing, easier than a troll under a bridge.

I think he sincerely believes it

 

[Preston]

Natural human instinct for people to believe that things were "better before." I hear it every day in the GTA. Hell, we hear it every day from LOF! I've always feared that a decently large group of people will be voting based on their beliefs that 2016-2020 was better than the last 4 years, however true it may be (the pandemic may make that true for many folks).

 

[Wayward DP]

Is it really the incumbent advantage when Trump is also an incumbent

IMO, a big part of incumbent advantage is the fear of the unknown

Also helps if your incumbent isn’t being undermined every single day from members of his own team

at the very least then, having both campaign as incumbents would cancel each other out.

if you're saying Trump is an incumbent, by replacing Biden, you're giving the full benefits of incumbency to Trump (using this logic)

 

[MindzEye]

Is it really the incumbent advantage when Trump is also an incumbent

When the other incumbent already lost to this incumbent....I'd suggest that yes it is still an advantage.

On the team part...I agree entirely. But this is that whole bit about not trusting the democrats to not bottle this. If they can bottle an excellent 4 year record because of an oldmaggedon that doesn't seem to actually exist in good polling data, they can badly bottle changing pitchers in the 6th inning.

 

[Wayward DP]

Natural human instinct for people to believe that things were "better before." I hear it every day in the GTA. Hell, we hear it every day from LOF! I've always feared that a decently large group of people will be voting based on their beliefs that 2016-2020 was better than the last 4 years, however true it may be (the pandemic may make that true for many folks).

yah never underestimate the powers of the feels. and I have no idea how to align feels closer to reality.

 

[Habsy]

Having religiously driven politics get involved in your healthcare = pearl clutching

Don't get me started again on the theocratic bullshit that has seeped into, and continues to do so, our politics. My #1 voting issue currently. Fuck the other policies as single topic voters when much of it comes from theocratic idiocy. That's the salient issue.

 

[CH1]

at the very least then, having both campaign as incumbents would cancel each other out.

Exactly. I’m not the one giving Biden the incumbent advantage. I think it’s meaningless to keep mentioning it as a factor

 

[Bleedsblue&white]

I think he sincerely believes it

Nah...there's a pattern.
Not enough attention? Go bigger

 

[Preston]

yah never underestimate the powers of the feels. and I have no idea how to align feels closer to reality.

The actual issues are secondary to a lot of things. Though the abortion issue and women support are things that could tip the scales. This election really should be a gimme for the Dems for that reason alone, but it's way too close for comfort.

 

[leafman101]

from 2019:

That’s not the same question though.

 

[CH1]

On the team part...I agree entirely. But this is that whole bit about not trusting the democrats to not bottle this. If they can bottle an excellent 4 year record because of an oldmaggedon that doesn't seem to actually exist in good polling data, they can badly bottle changing pitchers in the 6th inning.

This is the 6th inning of what exactly?

The second game of an August doubleheader?