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OT: American Politics

Preston said:
Natural human instinct for people to believe that things were "better before." I hear it every day in the GTA. Hell, we hear it every day from LOF! I've always feared that a decently large group of people will be voting based on their beliefs that 2016-2020 was better than the last 4 years, however true it may be (the pandemic may make that true for many folks).
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Technology is better with each day (with accompanying problems and dangers there too).

Everything else is worse.
 
CH1 said:
This is the 6th inning of what exactly?
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You know, and you're just wrong mate. Dunno what else to say. American elections are different, the American media is different, the American electorate and political culture are different. This isn't Canada, the UK, or France. "Pre Season" started the day after the mid terms.
 
MindzEye said:
You know, and you're just wrong mate. Dunno what else to say. American elections are different, the American media is different, the American electorate and political culture are different. This isn't Canada, the UK, or France. "Pre Season" started the day after the mid terms.
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big NOPE

You're stuck in 50s (on this particular topic)

#OldTimezEye
 
Habsy said:
@Wayward DP

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The interview with the NYT photographer is at 26:55. He was right there and his account is credible to me.
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even after chatting with my conspiracy-loving brother we both agree the conspiracies fall pretty flat on this one.

one one side, hiring this weirdo kid who couldn't make his school shooting team to take a crack from 150 yards with no backup is a really really really dumb assassination plot.

on the other side, Trump's reaction, the audio in the immediately available video, and little things like trump losing his shoes were all way too on point for this to be staged.
 
CH1 said:
big NOPE

You're stuck in 50s (on this particular topic)

#OldTimezEye
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Mindz is an expert on Los Angeles, the US, the world, and perhaps the universe.

Who the fuck do you think you are, Montreal guy hiding in Toronto like a fugitive pretending to know something about another country?
 
zeke said:
even after chatting with my conspiracy-loving brother we both agree the conspiracies fall pretty flat on this one.

one one side, hiring this weirdo kid who couldn't make his school shooting team to take a crack from 150 yards with no backup is a really really really dumb assassination plot.

on the other side, Trump's reaction, the audio in the immediately available video, and little things like trump losing his shoes were all way too on point for this to be staged.
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The only counterpoint is that the blood streaks on his face sure did look like the watery ketchup they used to use for blood on old cop shows in the 70s.
 
CH1 said:
Exactly. I’m not the one giving Biden the incumbent advantage. I think it’s meaningless to keep mentioning it as a factor
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I disagree with your logic, I'm just trying to show that, using your logic, Biden still has an incumbency advantage over other potential Dem candidates. and the fact that you consider Trump as an incumbent would put a non-Biden Dem at a further disadvantage!
 
CH1 said:
Is it really the incumbent advantage when Trump is also an incumbent

IMO, a big part of incumbent advantage is the fear of the unknown

Also helps if your incumbent isn’t being undermined every single day from members of his own team
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Yeah, it’s different because Trump is not the incumbent. He was, and had that advantage before, but he lost it. It’s not clear whether being a previous loser candidate is more of a partial incumbency advantage or actually a disadvantage because he already got kicked out.

Anyway, the internal infighting about replacing Biden will be done soon enough. Convention is in a month, and there’s talk about doing a roll call vote to nominate him pre-convention as early as next week. Or, if you’re right and Biden’s replacement is inevitable they’ve got about two weeks to get that in order.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Mindz is an expert on Los Angeles, the US, the world, and perhaps the universe.
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Mindz isn't an expert. Mindz likes to ingest the data of experts and then present said data, which he does regularly.

The data here is that every time a political party changes it's ticket within a few months of the election, they lose. The data is that #oldmageddon was media contrived bullshit.

I like data, and "lol instagram exists now, stop being old" isn't data. The irony to me is how accurate my takes have been in the tech threat over the years on social media. I don't say this because I don't have a functioning idea of how social media works, but because I do. The Democrats are not going to successfully penetrate the minds of 50+ yr old voters in 3 months because something something social media. The 24 hr news cycle is decades old at this point, that's not a new variable.
 
manny said:
Yeah, it’s different because Trump is not the incumbent. He was, and had that advantage before, but he lost it. It’s not clear whether being a previous loser candidate is more of a partial incumbency advantage or actually a disadvantage because he already got kicked out.

Anyway, the internal infighting about replacing Biden will be done soon enough. Convention is in a month, and there’s talk about doing a roll call vote to nominate him pre-convention as early as next week. Or, if you’re right and Biden’s replacement is inevitable they’ve got about two weeks to get that in order.
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It has to happen before August 6th or else they may as well just not bother with Ohio.
 
zeke said:
don't know that it's worth the risk really. it would be super messy no matter which way they went.

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It's not, and they'll fuck it up.

The longer they spend with the knives out, the worse this is going to get for them. They all need to get their fucking walking shoes on, go knock doors, go fucking campaign and focus on winning a fucking election. You have an incumbent president who at fucking worst, even if you believe the public polling is accurate, is a coin toss to win in November against a deeply unpopular challenger. Stop this bullshit and go put your fucking thumb on the scale.
 
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