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OT: American Politics

zeke said:

View: https://x.com/chriswithans/status/1813959892031742292
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I still am not seeing consistent polling showing non-Biden Dems outperforming him.

you'll get the odd poll where they do, then another where he is better than all of them. such a mixed bag and shitshow. would be fascinated to see what the internal polling says.

I'm increasingly coming around to the view that the public stuff is essentially meaningless at the moment.
 
Preston said:
Oh yeah I don't like her odds. I just fear it's the most likely scenario. And if she gains any traction and/or polls well vs Trump in the coming weeks... Could be some interesting times in the weed patch. Lots of ifs but I will be watching!
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pot stocks have been very resilient throughout both the recent Trump bump and this week’s market selloff
 
Wayward DP said:
I'm not convinced that the leaks are coming from team Biden rather than the rest of the Dems trying to force his hand. but we should hopefully know with certainty soon enough.

shit or get off the pot, Dems.
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My read is that the democrats have decided Joe is going to go, and Joe has to this point insisted on staying, so the democrats are getting more and more toxic until it forces Joe out.

A dangerous fucking game they're playing. If their nom (who I assume is Kamala) falls flat out of the gate, it's over and they're not getting their hands on the reigns of power again for a long time if ever.
 
MindzEye said:
My read is that the democrats have decided Joe is going to go, and Joe has to this point insisted on staying, so the democrats are getting more and more toxic until it forces Joe out.

A dangerous fucking game they're playing. If their nom (who I assume is Kamala) falls flat out of the gate, it's over and they're not getting their hands on the reigns of power again for a long time if ever.
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yah I'm increasingly convinced the Dems are just gonna essentially self-immolate and hand the reigns of power back to the Trump family for the next couple decades.

I also think Kamala would lose to Trump in a general.
 
Wayward DP said:
I'm increasingly coming around to the view that the public stuff is essentially meaningless at the moment.
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rick-james-american-singer.gif


The intent of the polling right now is to shape public opinion, not report it.
 
CH1 said:
pot stocks have been very resilient throughout both the recent Trump bump and this week’s market selloff
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Could be market participants anticipating the end of the rescheduling comment period. If there are further delays or hearings, there could be some downside. The other possibility is that with this administration's influence, it gets rammed though.

I'm not fully in tune with that whole thing but I think it's leading up to a significant volatility event, one way or another.
 
Wayward DP said:
yah I'm increasingly convinced the Dems are just gonna essentially self-immolate and hand the reigns of power back to the Trump family for the next couple decades.
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Honestly, I think they already have. The rest is just waiting for the train to arrive at the scene of the crash. The party wins with unity and a consistent message attacking Trump instead of Biden.

Think about that for a moment. A few months until the election and non Biden democrats have spent way, way more time and effort attacking their own guy with leaks and shit than they have Trump.

This is how American democracy burns. With democrats handing christian fascists the torch and lighter.
 
Preston said:
Could be market participants anticipating the end of the rescheduling comment period. If there are further delays or hearings, there could be some downside. The other possibility is that with this administration's influence, it gets rammed though.

I'm not fully in tune with that whole thing but I think it's leading up to a significant volatility event, one way or another.
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MSOS could definitely go lower but the upside/downside ratio looks appealing to me
 
MindzEye said:
HL got me into the habit of it. I ignore any poll now that isn't published that I can't go in and look at methodoloy and the cross tab data.
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I’ve done this for every one and also some dives into the pollsters themselves. Some are directly linked to Trump PACs.

Ditto reading through court docs myself.

Super curious if we still see historic shifts in black voter crosstabs with a black woman as the candidate. Will probably be a sign they’re sorta fucked.
 
zeke said:
are you trying to convince yourself that an assasination attempt would require less medical disclosure than other medical emergencies?

"sure presidential candidates' health disclosures have always obviously been extremely important.....but whoa there, it's just an assassination attempt, no need in this case"
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I’m making a simple point. There’s no protocol for something that happens once in a blue moon.

He also didn’t have a medical emergency. He has a bandage on his ear.
 

View: https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1813966794316820622?s=46&t=moEoHBmqH0l4NE3F_49J3Q

Just as an example - this poll is Insider Advantage which means nothing to anyone really.

You could just take this with no additional context but if you dig in a little more you realize it’s run by Matt Towery. Matt Towery is a former GOP state rep who encouraged Trump to run in 2016 starting way back in 2014. That seems like good information to know but it just gets added into the polling averages.

That’s just the first one I looked at on Twitter
 
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