PA is tough to model tbh because of how stark and roughly evenly divided the population is between urban Pitt/Philly and the rest of the state, Pennsyltucky. The deep Philly suburbs are the swing voters. Voter turnout in Philly blows up your model if you have it even just a little bit wrong.
And, of course, tariffs are taxed on domestic consumers, not foreign entities. Anyway, I wonder how Nike and other US owned apparel producers will react when the stuff from their Asian sweatshops is hit with these consumption taxes. It’s not like they’re gonna open a new factory in Nebraska. Of course, they might just get a nice juicy income tax cut to ease the pain.