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OT: American Politics

It still doesn’t seem like undecided voters liked Vance all that much last night. And I was at a concert last night so I missed it live but some of the parts I’ve seen I don’t think will help them with women.
 
hockeylover said:
It still doesn’t seem like undecided voters liked Vance all that much last night. And I was at a concert last night so I missed it live but some of the parts I’ve seen I don’t think will help them with women.
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Vance was "used car salesman" slick throughout the evening. He was most effective early on in the debate.

Walz was effective better later on. Walz missed a kill shot, when the moderators asked Vance how he planned to pay for the 5 trillion dollar increase in the deficit.

All he had to say was "answer their question sir".
 
Wayward DP said:
wellness check on @FlyGuy ?

gotta be tough times right now
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I am extremely amused. I came here thinking there would be a gnashing of teeth about Shapiro not being the choice and questioning if there's still time to change the VP selection out.

Walz was a bumbling, abject disaster. I don't think he could have looked more ill-equipped to lead and govern if he tried. I honestly don't know how he's been in public office this long.

Vance handled another 3 on 1 masterfully. He is a truly intelligent person who displayed admirable emotional control to bald-faced lies from all parties and clearly adversarial moderators. Calm, intelligent, measured answers to everything thrown at him. Just brilliant. Walz was a deer in the headlights. I couldn't contain my uncomfortable laughter at the EXTREMELY awkward answer to the China question.

I am in disbelief at the conclusions this thread is reaching based on last night lol.

Particularly tickled that Minneapolis burning to the ground, and Walz's wife putting the windows down because she enjoyed the smell of cop cars burning, was never brought up.
 
Aberdeen said:
Polling seems pretty much locked in at this point.

Hoping for a huge push to mobilize voters on voting week from celebs, viral shit, hot ones etc. No point in doing those things now with the 24 hour attention span.
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There's a few places I'm optimistic

- Pollsters have gotten Dem turnout wrong since Roe, and the poll weightings don't seem to have corrected for this and still correct towards Republican
- The actual votes that have happened over the last ~6 months, some of them in significant historic bellweathers have been shitkickings in favour of the Democrats
- There are some key battleground states where the downballot democrats are way out performing Kamala. Feels like fertile territory for the LV calculations being wrong in Democrat favour.
- Polls have tightened (or at the least, significantly improved compared to previous Trump cycles) in places where just the nature of polling make it near impossible to predict Democrat breakthroughs (most notably, Florida), and polls tightening there without improvement in other adjacent states kind of defies historic polling wisdom.
- As I've ranted about regularly over the last few months, deeply partisan polling firms continue to flood the zone and when you remove those (and their democrat counterparts who do the same thing, but at 1/10th the volume), across the board you see improvements for Kamala.
 
FlyGuy said:
I am extremely amused. I came here thinking there would be a gnashing of teeth about Shapiro not being the choice and questioning if there's still time to change the VP selection out.

Walz was a bumbling, abject disaster. I don't think he could have looked more ill-equipped to lead and govern if he tried. I honestly don't know how he's been in public office this long.

Vance handled another 3 on 1 masterfully. He is a truly intelligent person who displayed admirable emotional control to bald-faced lies from all parties and clearly adversarial moderators. Calm, intelligent, measured answers to everything thrown at him. Just brilliant. Walz was a deer in the headlights. I couldn't contain my uncomfortable laughter at the EXTREMELY awkward answer to the China question.

I am in disbelief at the conclusions this thread is reaching based on last night lol.

Particularly tickled that Minneapolis burning to the ground, and Walz's wife putting the windows down because she enjoyed the smell of cop cars burning, was never brought up.
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Delusion or performance art? I'm not so sure anymore.
 
MindzEye said:
There's a few places I'm optimistic

- Pollsters have gotten Dem turnout wrong since Roe, and the poll weightings don't seem to have corrected for this and still correct towards Republican
- The actual votes that have happened over the last ~6 months, some of them in significant historic bellweathers have been shitkickings in favour of the Democrats
- There are some key battleground states where the downballot democrats are way out performing Kamala. Feels like fertile territory for the LV calculations being wrong in Democrat favour.
- Polls have tightened (or at the least, significantly improved compared to previous Trump cycles) in places where just the nature of polling make it near impossible to predict Democrat breakthroughs (most notably, Florida), and polls tightening there without improvement in other adjacent states kind of defies historic polling wisdom.
- As I've ranted about regularly over the last few months, deeply partisan polling firms continue to flood the zone and when you remove those (and their democrat counterparts who do the same thing, but at 1/10th the volume), across the board you see improvements for Kamala.
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I thoughts polls were just meant to influence public opinion/action
 
hockeylover said:
not sure whats with this right wing insistence that walz is gonna be replaced or can even be replaced but i see it all over my for you page on twitter all the time.
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It would seem to be a reasonable expectation based on what they did to Biden.

Bomb a debate, get replaced.
 
FlyGuy said:
I thoughts polls were just meant to influence public opinion/action
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Meant to? No.

Often used for? Yeah.

It comes down to the quality of the individual pollsters. If a pollster has a strong track record of their polls lining up with reality, putting them with other strong pollsters into an aggregate is an excellent way of knowing where the electorate probably is at any given time within a percentage point or two.
 
hockeylover said:
not sure whats with this right wing insistence that walz is gonna be replaced or can even be replaced but i see it all over my for you page on twitter all the time.
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polymarket.com

Tim Walz replaced as Democratic VP nominee?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from his candidacy for Vice ...
polymarket.com polymarket.com
 
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