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OT: American Politics

axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1845404285351117266
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If Trump doesn’t win the election outright, I’m fully expecting this. Also expecting that, with years of preparation, they’re also going to be more successful at fucking with the certification process in key states that Harris wins.

Also fully expecting that, if the outcome of the election ever somehow ends up in the hands of the Supreme Court, they will happily crown Trump.
 
LeafGm said:
If Trump doesn’t win the election outright, I’m fully expecting this. Also expecting that, with years of preparation, they’re also going to be more successful at fucking with the certification process in key states that Harris wins.

Also fully expecting that, if the outcome of the election ever somehow ends up in the hands of the Supreme Court, they will happily crown Trump.
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Here's the silver linings for me:

- Trump had his hands on the rudder last time and even with that couldn't pull it off
- One of, if not the first thing Kamala did when she took over the ticket was bring Marc Elias back into the fold: https://x.com/marceelias

He's a fucking gangster. His team is the biggest reason the GOP lost so badly in most of their pre election court cases last year, and the biggest reason the Dems continue to dogwalk the GOP in courts across the country in pre election court cases.

This is from last night:


View: https://x.com/marceelias/status/1845283150315819412

- I can see the US falling to an administrative coup, but not a violent one. So the path to takeover is pretty limited.
- Even Trump friendly states have slapped down outright fuckery in court so far. Georgia is probably a pretty good bellweather there. The new hand count rule is being challenged right now. If that gets overturned by a judge in Georgia, it would be an excellent sign for where the judiciary is going to fall on a lot of cases going forward imo.
 
Wayward DP said:
yah I'm concerned that anything less than a Harris blowout allows the fascists and scotus to steal the election.
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The concern is really only in the swing states.

- Wisconsin has a R controlled house and senate (D Governor) and a 4-3 Liberal/Conservative split, so while fuckery might be attempted it probably doesn't get past the Governor or State Supreme Court

- Michigan is D Gov, D across the board...win the vote, win the state with no complications

- PA is D Gov, very narrow D advantage in the house, 5-2 D advantage in the court....so yeah, no fuckery is getting far there.

- North Carolina is D Gov, R sweep after that so some possibility there especially considering how close it's going to be. If Democrats win NC, I expect Marc to be busy there fighting to protect a bunch of whichever ballots Republicans think need to go based on the results.

- Georgia is a tough one, but things held up in 2020 so there's hope it will do so again if the Dems win the state.

- Nevada is R Gov, but D house and senate with a non partisan but considered liberal leaning supreme court.

imo the path to 276 is pretty safe from bullshit legal challenges, just gotta win the elections there.

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Wayward DP said:
don't think they could "end his campaign", but still...


View: https://x.com/whstancil/status/1845474684684369972
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End his campaign literally? No. End his campaign functionally? Yeah, probably. It's hard to get a grip of what the reality is with the funky polls, zone flooding, etc but it looks like Kamala is +4 nationally. Take away the sanewashing, apply the same energy to Trump's age and health that they applied to Biden's, focus and foam at the mouth over every gaff (his deflation bit was a fucking doozy yesterday), regularly refer to him as what he is (convicted felon, adjudicated rapist), cover the election denying through the lens of J6, etc, etc, etc and I bet the national polls shift another 3-5 points which would make the campaign functionally over.
 
MindzEye said:
End his campaign literally? No. End his campaign functionally? Yeah, probably. It's hard to get a grip of what the reality is with the funky polls, zone flooding, etc but it looks like Kamala is +4 nationally. Take away the sanewashing, apply the same energy to Trump's age and health that they applied to Biden's, focus and foam at the mouth over every gaff (his deflation bit was a fucking doozy yesterday), regularly refer to him as what he is (convicted felon, adjudicated rapist), cover the election denying through the lens of J6, etc, etc, etc and I bet the national polls shift another 3-5 points which would make the campaign functionally over.
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fair enough. I've been highly critical of how the press has covered this election too.

I'm just not sure how many persuadable or low-info voters the MSM still reaches. but I do agree that it matters, and they need to do WAY better.
 
CH1 said:
Please elaborate
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Delusional homer perma bull. Way too emotionally invested and biased to be taken seriously. "Trust me bro, I have secret data" from a man that has consistently projected the Dems to outperform for years doesn't quite convince me of anything.
 
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Preston said:
Delusional homer perma bull. Way too emotionally invested and biased to be taken seriously. "Trust me bro, I have secret data" from a man that has consistently projected the Dems to outperform for years doesn't quite convince me of anything.
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To expand, he also talks in absolutes instead of probabilities which is a giant red flag for any supposed data guy. Not a serious person. Let's do better around here.
 
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Preston said:
To expand, he also talks in absolutes instead of probabilities which is a giant red flag for any supposed data guy. Not a serious person. Let's do better around here.
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Yeah, I am suspicious of his “trust me, it’s in the bag” vibe. Not as open minded as he should be. Reminds me of 2016 vibes.
 
Suspicious is fine, he doesn't show his work but his track record as a data professional is strong. Botsentinel's existence should buy him a significant amount of credit.

Between that and how much more accurate he was than basically everyone for the 2022 midterms (aka...the Dems way outperforming...)earns him my attention regardless of his candor.
 
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