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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
Not at all, Trump historically draws ~5% of registered Democrats. I haven't seen any reason to indicate that is going to move in this election. There's no Democrat parallel to "Haley Republicans" in this election. If you go back in this thread to before Joe dropped out of the race you'll note that collecting all of Joe's base and not bleeding some of it out was a major concern of mine regarding the possibility that Joe stepped aside. Democrat enthusiasm has been excellent under Kamala though, so there's no reason to expect more than the normal % of bleed from party registered voters, which is as mentioned, about 5%.

So yeah, spare me this weak gotcha bullshit.
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Your "Haley Republicans" is a misconception from states having open primaries.
 
MindzEye said:
They've been polled long, long after the primaries and appear to be a durable trend.

This NYT/Siena poll is showing a 9% bleed: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-national.html

From another pollster:

View attachment 22494

View attachment 22495


So they don't appear to be a misconception at all, and if Trump's share of Republicans falls from his usual 95%, this will be the explanation.
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I'd be interested to see what % of them voted for Trump in 2020. I'd also bet RFK voters offsetting any hypothetical negative that you've laid out.

Highly, highly plausible a high majority of these people are women and never trumpers anyways.
 
Preston said:
I don't like it when the future is decided by heads or tails
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anton-chigurh-no-country-for-old-men.gif
 
FlyGuy said:
Man, Kamala's husband being a woman beater is quite a bad look.

Add it to knocking up his daughter's nanny and then likely causing a miscarriage by assaulting that woman. Dude is scum.
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You may want to....do your own research....about the guy you're voting for if you're concerned about infidelity, pregnancies outside of marriage, spousal abuse, etc.
 
MindzEye said:
You may want to....do your own research....about the guy you're voting for if you're concerned about infidelity, pregnancies outside of marriage, spousal abuse, etc.
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So you don't actually care about the judgement of the presidential candidate, is what you're saying.
 
FlyGuy said:
I'd be interested to see what % of them voted for Trump in 2020.
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Says right in the passage I quoted.

FlyGuy said:
Highly, highly plausible a high majority of these people are women and never trumpers anyways.
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at the end of the day all that matters in this context is the bleed from registered Republicans. If those two (very recent) polls/surveys are accurate, Trump is going to slip a few additional percentage points from the 95% of registered republicans we would usually expect to vote for him. The NYT/Siena poll has him at 91% which would be a fucking disaster.
 
FlyGuy said:
I'd be interested to see what % of them voted for Trump in 2020. I'd also bet RFK voters offsetting any hypothetical negative that you've laid out.

Highly, highly plausible a high majority of these people are women and never trumpers anyways.
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So you think RFK Jr's voters are Dems? What about him appeals to Dems?

I thought most if not all of his voters were Republicans that were sick of Trump / Trump doesn't go far enough.

This is why he wants off the ballot in swing states.


Why? If his voters are Dems, then he should stay on?
 
MindzEye said:
Says right in the passage I quoted.



at the end of the day all that matters in this context is the bleed from registered Republicans. If those two (very recent) polls/surveys are accurate, Trump is going to slip a few additional percentage points from the 95% of registered republicans we would usually expect to vote for him. The NYT/Siena poll has him at 91% which would be a fucking disaster.
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If total number of republicans outweighs that leakage then it may not matter.
 
Pwner said:
So you think RFK Jr's voters are Dems? What about him appeals to Dems?

I thought most if not all of his voters were Republicans that were sick of Trump / Trump doesn't go far enough.

This is why he wants off the ballot in swing states.


Why? If his voters are Dems, then he should stay on?
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He was a democrat first of all. Isn't focusing on regulating industries for the health of people and the environment combined with being anti-war traditionally liberal platforms? Bit weird how Democrats have abandoned those. What interests could they be serving instead?

He wants off the ballot so his voters will vote for the candidate he endorsed, obviously.
 
Pretty sure the felonious former president was a long-standing New York democrat, no? Until it no longer served his company's best interest.
 
FlyGuy said:
Your "Haley Republicans" is a misconception from states having open primaries.
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these posts are fun, when the Canadian gets to explain to the American how his electoral system works.

sure, some states had open primaries. others were closed. this means that only registered Republicans can participate. and in those, there were still lots of Haley Republicans!
 
MindzEye said:
Says right in the passage I quoted.



at the end of the day all that matters in this context is the bleed from registered Republicans. If those two (very recent) polls/surveys are accurate, Trump is going to slip a few additional percentage points from the 95% of registered republicans we would usually expect to vote for him. The NYT/Siena poll has him at 91% which would be a fucking disaster.
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nice confirmation that flyguy either does not or cannot read our posts...
 
FlyGuy said:
He was a democrat first of all. Isn't focusing on regulating industries for the health of people and the environment combined with being anti-war traditionally liberal platforms? Bit weird how Democrats have abandoned those. What interests could they be serving instead?

He wants off the ballot so his voters will vote for the candidate he endorsed, obviously.
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Well if he is pulling Dems who probably won't vote for Trump as he is not into saving the environment - "Drill baby, Drill!" - and NOT regulating industries, then staying on the Ballot is better then being off it, obviously (so those votes don't go to Harris).

But he wants to get off the ballot so his voters, who were Trump voters, vote for Trump and not himself. Duh.
 
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