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OT: American Politics

One thing I don't get is that why are we supposed to be surprised that trump could fill a stadium in a city with over 20m people in the metro? I know it's lib as fuck there but I'm not sure why we should be surprised at that one.

I agree that the vibes for him feel different than they did in past elections but that could just be more people feeling comfortable to get out of the trumper closet. Hard to suss out if it's a real increase in support or not.
 
Preston said:
One thing I don't get is that why are we supposed to be surprised that trump could fill a stadium in a city with over 20m people in the metro? I know it's lib as fuck there but I'm not sure why we should be surprised at that one.

I agree that the vibes for him feel different than they did in past elections but that could just be more people feeling comfortable to get out of the trumper closet. Hard to suss out if it's a real increase in support or not.
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I think people care less about the scarlet letter people will brand them with (hell the overton window has moved) and care more about their bank accounts.
 
i don't know that it was actually complacency in 2016....at least not in terms of not showing up. What happened is that a chunk of dems went 3rd party.

O = Other

2000: D 51.0m (47.9%) --- R 50.5m (48.4%)--- O 4.0m (3.7%)
2004: D 59.0m (48.3%) --- R 62.0m (50.7%) --- O 1.2m (1.0%)
2008: D 69.5m (52.9%) --- R 60.0m (45.7%) --- O 1.9m (1.4%)
2012: D 65.9m (51.1%) --- R 60.9m (47.2%) --- O 2.2m (1.7%)
2016: D 65.9m (48.2%) --- R 63.0m (46.1%) --- O 7.8m (5.7%)
2020: D 81.3m (51.3%) --- R 74.2m (46.9%) --- O 2.9m (1.8%)

If you just take the extra ~5.3m (4%) that the 3rd parties got in 2016 and slot it in for the dems, then all the numbers make more sense. Even Biden's big jump to 81m there makes more sense if it's a jump from 71m.

Also shocking to realize that it was the same thing that allowed Bush to "win" in 2000.

if you ever wonder why the GOP spends so much time pushing 3rd party candidates, here's your reason. it's the only way they can win.
 
zeke said:
i don't know that it was actually complacency in 2016....at least not in terms of not showing up. What happened is that a chunk of dems went 3rd party.

O = Other

2000: D 51.0m (47.9%) --- R 50.5m (48.4%)--- O 4.0m (3.7%)
2004: D 59.0m (48.3%) --- R 62.0m (50.7%) --- O 1.2m (1.0%)
2008: D 69.5m (52.9%) --- R 60.0m (45.7%) --- O 1.9m (1.4%)
2012: D 65.9m (51.1%) --- R 60.9m (47.2%) --- O 2.2m (1.7%)
2016: D 65.9m (48.2%) --- R 63.0m (46.1%) --- O 7.8m (5.7%)
2020: D 81.3m (51.3%) --- R 74.2m (46.9%) --- O 2.9m (1.8%)

If you just take the extra ~5.3m (4%) that the 3rd parties got in 2016 and slot it in for the dems, then all the numbers make more sense. Even Biden's big jump to 81m there makes more sense if it's a jump from 71m.

Also shocking to realize that it was the same thing that allowed Bush to "win" in 2000.

if you ever wonder why the GOP spends so much time pushing 3rd party candidates, here's your reason. it's the only way they can win.
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i think i'd absolutely say that's complacency though.
 
Preston said:
One thing I don't get is that why are we supposed to be surprised that trump could fill a stadium in a city with over 20m people in the metro?
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nobody should be surprised. is anyone actually surprised?

i was actually surprised by how small the "crowds" were outside the arena tbh.
 
zeke said:
nobody should be surprised. is anyone actually surprised?

i was actually surprised by how small the "crowds" were outside the arena tbh.
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Idk I've seen a couple comments in this thread about people being surprised by it. I let the first one go but I had to react to fly guy saying it.
 
pretty skeptical at this point that trump's voters would feel they should hide their vote. never met any trump voter who hasn't been completely unapologetic about it. are there actually shy trump voters left?
 
zeke said:
in his two elections he's been able to bring in low propensity voters that the pollsters would tend to screen out when filtering for turnout amongst Likely Voters.

technically speaking, the pollsters should have a better handle on the likelihood of these voters turning out this time around.
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So being low propensity is a label that can be predicted and categorized with modeling?
 
Trump voters by state in 2020

1. California 6.0m
2. Texas 5.9m
3. Florida 5.7m
4. Pennsylvania 3.4m
5. New York 3.3m

yeah nobody should be surprised that Trump can fill a 20k arena in new york.

though it was funny to see the stands at least a quarter empty even while trump was still speaking.
 
zeke said:
in your neighborhood wouldn't the scarlet letter actually be blue?
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Not necessarily. My neighbor was ready to sever all ties with me over my Trump flag I flew after Trump was shot.

Quite the childish outburst via text. My calm response had him feeling a fool and he brought me and my family dinner one night to compensate for it.
 
FlyGuy said:
So being low propensity is a label that can be predicted and categorized with modeling?
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low propensity just means a category of voter that doesn't vote regularly. whether that's an age bracket, gender, race, income bracket, education tier, whatever.

but the more that category of voter actually votes, the more they will be incorporated into future Likely Voter models.
 
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