OT: American Politics
- Thread starter MindzEye
- Start date
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Fwiw (probably not much) in 2020 that number was around 56%
Wayward DP
Well-known member
hockeylover
Well-known member
Wayward DP
Well-known member
total, or early? think 2016 is more relevant as benchmark though, cause covid
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
Guessing Taylor Swift shows up on Monday.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Early. Total was around 52%
Wayward DP
Well-known member
presto are you still concerned/skeptical? still see it as near a coin flip?
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I'm entirely open to any result. From blowout trump win to blowout Kamala win. All scenarios seem legit possible to me.
I'm not a fan of over analyzing early voter data. It's very difficult to form any conclusions from it.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I do expect Kamala to do better among women than in either 2020 or 2016, cause of Dobbs. but dunno how/where/if that's reflected in any polling or results or anything
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I don't see a Trump blowout happening.
I think Kamala winning comfortably is my most likely scenario. followed by a nail-biter on either side. followed by a Trump blowout.
honestly it's weird cause I'm usually such a cynic. and risk averse by professional nature.
but I'm feeling pretty good about Kamala's chances. maybe it's copium, who knows.
what I'm most concerned about though is election day, and/or post-election fuckery. Trump is gonna do everything he can to not count every vote, I strongly suspect. and SCOTUS is gonna be too happy to oblige...
Wayward DP
Well-known member
also, CH1, as our resident guru who knew Biden was dropping out, has been adamant that Kamala is gonna win.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I'm surprised at how optimistic you are! I don't know, I don't see the data to support feeling too strongly one way or another. The vibes are going to appear great whether you support Trump or Kamala based on the people you follow and information you seek, so I don't put as much stock in that.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
But he often makes one key point: Bacon is really expensive right now. And people will blame that on the president and vote for trump out of protest/hope that he will magically fix that.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
so I think I understand where you're coming from.
the big difference is that I am paying less attention to the polls and more attention to what is happening on the ground, from what I can glean. that and early voting results.
re: vibes, I agree to an extent. no doubt this thread is mostly a Kamala-love fest, but my twitter feed sure ain't. I mean I do try to expose myself to some of the trumpist propaganda, but who knows how well I actually achieve a balance. and while flyguy is only one lil insect, his vibes and enthusiasm do not currently appear to be supported/corroborated by real events, from what I can gather.
but I'm just a dude in a law office in Canada at the end of the day, with strong opinions. we'll know soon enough.
thehabhater
Some call me Tim
Wayward DP
Well-known member
I have more faith in the people of America than that! rightly or wrongly, we'll know soon.
I think women care more about their reproductive freedom and access to healthcare than the cost of bacon. but it is a fair point, no doubt. cost of living matters.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
one thing that's prolly worth noting - the Kamala campaign has succeeded in getting this terminally online Canadian fired the fuck up and enthusiastic about her campaign.