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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
When this is all over you're going to realize that the data was gamed to make you feel exactly this way about the race
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That's fine but I have no evidence that this is right and all data is fake. It's all theoretical right now. So until I see actual evidence that she's way ahead, I will continue to temper my expectations.
 
Preston said:
That's fine but I have no evidence that this is right and all data is fake. It's all theoretical right now. So until I see actual evidence that she's way ahead, I will continue to temper my expectations.
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No one said "fake". Heavily flawed and/or manipulated though, definitely. There's a bag of evidence to support this, but it's nothing I haven't been saying for months now. Long story short, when smart, dangerous people start doing something you don't understand (setting up an entire industry of bullshit right wing polling firms), you should ask yourself why they would do this. It's cool though. I'm sure the baseball stat guy knows how to weight this properly.
 
MindzEye said:
No one said "fake". Heavily flawed and/or manipulated though, definitely. There's a bag of evidence to support this, but it's nothing I haven't been saying for months now. Long story short, when smart, dangerous people start doing something you don't understand (setting up an entire industry of bullshit right wing polling firms), you should ask yourself why they would do this. It's cool though. I'm sure the baseball stat guy knows how to weight this properly.
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But even the polls that we like and think are good tell the same story of a coin flip election? You're fixated on the junk polls but they all tell the relatively same story of an election that has a wide array of possibilities.

Plus the baseball stats guy turned covid expert and lab leak truther does not have particularly unique results from his model compared to every other public model out there. So I'm still not sure why we're so fixated on him only.
 
Preston said:
But even the polls that we like and think are good tell the same story of a coin flip election?
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That's not my read. The "polls we like" (as in, the demo splits and demo results match up with something resembling reality) all seem to have Kamala +3 or more nationally, and winning by 1-2% or more in PA & NC and imo that's still not accounting for LV math being based on a bad census data from 2020.

I mean, if we're calling that a "coin flip", then every election is a coin flip. Trump was ~30% by the numbers in 2016 on election day. But I wouldn't call that a coin flip.
 
Preston said:
Plus the baseball stats guy turned covid expert and lab leak truther does not have particularly unique results from his model compared to every other public model out there. So I'm still not sure why we're so fixated on him only.
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He's just the easiest to make fun of.

The same methodologies based on the same assumptions will generate the same results. The aggregator industry swung and missed in 2022 in the face of the lesser challenges to the data than they're facing this time around. No "common sense" being applied for a lack of a better term. An entire industry of bullshit polling firms have popped up, often by the same people running the partisan firms they now weight poorly in their analysis, but these new firms are cool. The people who missed 2022 assure us that they've got it this time though.

Fabrizio? Can't trust that guy. These new guys Fabrizio, Dinkum, & Deep just dropped a N=1200 LV poll in Michigan though with 50.8% of their LV's being female? I see nothing wrong with that. That's just clean, crisp data baby.
 
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