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OT: American Politics

I think it’s broadly believed that the impeachment is not moving the needle significantly either way.
 
Habsy said:
I think it’s broadly believed that the impeachment is not moving the needle significantly either way.
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The data suggests that it's moving in Trump's favour. Not a big swing but it looks to be helping Trump (as many on the left predicted).
 
Habsy said:
You’ll see, there will be a negligible change.
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The claim is not based so much on that the impeachment will push numbers in Trump's favour but that it lets him off the hook for his really awful deeds and, most especially, how his awful policies have fucked the American working class. Years of the Russian conspiracy bullshit with very little attention, much less opposition, to the really ugly shit he's been doing.
 
BeLeafer said:
OMG, real clear politics is right wing! Thanks for that news. The reason I use it is because: a) it collects virtually all polling on a range of issues, and; b) provides links to all the polls it posts -- so that you can inspect the methodology (something you have chosen to be willfully ignorant about).
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1) it ain't the only site that collects polls

2) it has a habit of including sketchy polls on an equal basis as reputed polls

3) you have very simplistic takes on methodology, and only assume I don't understand those superficial issues you mention and many more important methodology issues which you don't bother mentioning
 
BeLeafer said:
Even if you chose to be oblivious about the quality of polls, there's 12 polls up there and only 3 of them support your quickly vanishing fever dream. Two of those are complete garbage.

But carry on ...
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Just to be clear here - why do you think opt-in polls would have an anti-trump bias?
 
zeke said:
1) it ain't the only site that collects polls

2) it has a habit of including sketchy polls on an equal basis as reputed polls
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What's a reputed poll in your view?

As noted, I use it because it provides links to all polls.

3) you have very simplistic takes on methodology, and only assume I don't understand those superficial issues you mention and many more important methodology issues which you don't bother mentioning
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I'm an expert in survey methodology. I know you don't understand them because you repeatedly post garbage pollls.
 
Btw that morning consult poll gained credibility by virtue of consistently showing the 2016 election closer for trump than the others.

And yes there are big issues with opt in polls, just like there are big issues with phone polls nowadays, given the reliance on landlines and the continued difficulties polling cell phones.
 
BeLeafer said:
Because they don't agree with what Nate says?
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It's funny that you keep thinking that I care what nate says more than anyone else or get all my polling opinions from him.

Looking at 538 again now, though, it looks like this particular poll gets a mediocre to below average reliability rating (B/C).
 
zeke said:
Btw that morning consult poll gained credibility by virtue of consistently showing the 2016 election closer for trump than the others.
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Again, while common with guys like Nate, judging methodology on the basis of a narrow outcome is not a valid way to determine its quality. I can repost the study on how to assess validilty properly if you like.

And yes there are big issues with opt in polls, just like there are big issues with phone polls nowadays, given the reliance on landlines and the continued difficulties polling cell phones.
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As I posted previously, no one should rely on landline polls.
 
zeke said:
It's funny that you keep thinking that I care what nate says more than anyone else or get all my polling opinions from him.

Looking at 538 again now, though, it looks like this particular poll gets a mediocre to below average reliability rating (B/C).
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Hey, you're the one who said you rely on Nate.
 
BeLeafer said:
Again, while common with guys like Nate, judging methodology on the basis of a narrow outcome is not a valid way to determine its quality. I can repost the study on how to assess validilty properly if you like.
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They also grade on methodology, of course. They're not morons.


As I posted previously, no one should rely on landline polls.
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Yet you consistently post polls with a large landline bias.
 
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