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OT: American Politics

CTheBigPicture said:
I've been meaning to comment on the Heard/Depp trial for a few days but didn't think it'd be appropriate with the events that occurred. We are perhaps on the eve of the verdict so here it is.

What the post is about:
These are my predictions based on what I heard during the trial. I tried not to watch news sources, or twitter comments etc. though I was not fully immune to that. Overall, I'd say I saw/heard 5% more than the jury did, which can make my prediction biased; so keep that in mind.

Overall thoughts:
  1. Depp: I find it sad/embarrassing with the amount of support Johnny has received, especially outside the courtroom. I have come to accept social media warriors not having sound judgement, but just visually seeing people adore him when he enters and exists the court room is awful. He is obviously an angry, entitled, drug addicted elite who is an absolutely awful partner to have. He is far from a person to be adored. I have no idea why people would adore him watching his screams and tirades and destroying properly like was shown during the trial. He did at least own up to some flaws during the trial.
  2. Heard: Amber came off as also an angry, lying, drug addicted person; so much so that she had 'drugs' written on her wedding itinerary. She admitted striking Depp (more on all of those below). She even lied about her charity contributions.

Predictions:
  • Counter claim: I am 100% sure that Amber will not win her claim. I am 90% sure the verdict will be unanimously not guilty. Reasons: seemed like a lawsuit for the sake of one. I did not hear evidence tied together with the claim.
  • Depp's Defamation case: I believe Depp will win his case and be awarded somewhere along half of what he's asked for. My confidence level is 70% for the win because there could always be a juror who would have reasonable doubt (and justifiably so I should add). Reasons 1- Amber came off as bender of truth throughout the trial. In fact, at one point, she submitted the same photo for two different alleged incidents 2- Despite having multiple chances before, she had never mentioned incidents like her rape allegations until this trial. Seems like something that she would have brought up before if true 3- The TMZ allegations were noteworthy. It certainly seemed like she set up the release of the video 4- for her to be right, there must be so many witnesses lying or wrong. Seems hard to believe 5- quite frankly, and unfortunately so, the way he handled herself in court will have an impact. Sobbing without tears makes it look like she was putting on an act. 6- Some of her evidence was suspect. Photo of the mirror, but not her actual injury.

Having said that, some major items that I think can shift the verdict one way or another.

  1. Pro Amber:
    • The make-up artist for James Cordon mentioned she did in fact cover up a busted lip though source of it cannot be proven. This could give the jury reasonable doubt to return a hung verdict.
    • Depp had some weird text messages implying that he owned women, that the only way out of this was death for Amber etc.
    • Depp, despite his claim, clearly tried to destroy Amber's career. that could persuade a juror.
    • Depp's team tried to make a case that Amber's success was due to Depp; just a bad argument playing to the wrong societal view that women on their own merits can't succeed. Again, this could persuade a juror.
  2. Pro Depp:
    • Amber is the only person who, through admitted evidence, has been physically violent with Johnny. She admitted to punching Johnny and described the incident on the stand.
    • Amber is the only one who has been seen outside the marriage (in an airport), being physically violent with someone else.
    • Her defense, perhaps in desperation, tried their best to stretch the concept of 'abuse' to verbal, mental, physical, etc. In other words, in their view, any marriage that ends in divorce could be ground for domestic abuse. This case started with physical abuse allegations, and ended up with this definition of abuse.
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Thanks for this. I have not watched a single minute of this trial. I don't waste time on elites and their 1%er problems.
 
Habsy said:
But not unexpected
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I wonder what the impact is of border closures. Immigrants (including illegals) tend to fill out the bottom end of the job market, which is where we’re seeing the most competition and biggest run on wages.
 
Habsy said:
Thanks for this. I have not watched a single minute of this trial. I don't waste time on elites and their 1%er problems.
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Generally, I'd agree; but this was an important trial for the me 2 movement. I got interested in it because of that. If a powerful man like Depp was held legally liable for domestic violence, this would be a big win for all sufferers and could take the movement to another level.

Unfortunately, to me Amber Heard is about the worst person in the world to be on the centre stage here. She has not been believable, nor is she likable.

Having said that, verdict that I predicted would be a step back for the movement but certainly not a death blow or anything like that.
 
Agreed on your take on both Depp and Heard.

And also, IMO, violence against women also hugely important to the topic of mass shootings so rather unfortunate the narrative seems to be Depp is an angel here.
 
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