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OT: American Politics

I know that #crosstabs is a controversial subject in the polling community, but the accuracy of polls is predicated on LV math, plain and simple. If the adjustment math is making bad assumption, the polls are going to have a major blindspot.

What are the assumptions being made, and how? I'm going to steal the language from an Emerson poll out this week in NC & WI.

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Now, I cautioned about this months ago:

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The polls having some sort of a hidden anti Trump bias in this cycle is super, super unlikely. The polls having a hidden anti Harris bias looks really, really likely when you peel back the onion a few layers, even within polls from firms that aren't trying to generate biased data.
yah no matter how much my heart keeps stressing, my brain keeps coming back to this conclusion. sure hope I'm right.
 
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