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OT: American Politics

zeke said:
I wish it was all just theatre.

But this will have major impacts around the globe. Probably historic ones. And not good ones.
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The downstream global impacts were coming one way or another.

America is turning back to itself and its isolationist ways.

As for the rest of the globe?

Imma gunna act like I always have and pretend the rest of it doesn't exist.
 
zeke said:
I wish it was all just theatre.

But this will have major impacts around the globe. Probably historic ones. And not good ones.
Click to expand...

Yeah. My gut tells me they’ll paint themselves into a domestic trap, no matter how hard they seek the enemy within, and so they will need an external enemy.

So, war. Likely in the latter part of the term.
 
The end of the world is just the beginning is predicting the mass starvation and famine of about a billion people in china alone due to demographic and resource based factors.

We're so fucking lucky to live in fortress north america.

Globalism is dead and with it, a lot of social progress.

The lefties are getting what they want: The end of american hegemony and with it the end of global prosperity.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Yeah. My gut tells me they’ll paint themselves into a domestic trap, no matter how hard they seek the enemy within, and so they will need an external enemy.

So, war. Likely in the latter part of the term.
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this is my cue that it's late at night and i need to rest to laugh at purple haired lesbians crying on tick tock tomorrow.
 
You've lived in a time where you had the freedom to do whatever you wanted and ignore everything else.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case for the vast majority of human history.
 
zeke said:
I wish it was all just theatre.

But this will have major impacts around the globe. Probably historic ones. And not good ones.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm trying to wrap my head around the impacts here.

Just domestically this locks in the Federalist control of SCOTUS for probably 20-30 more years. His tax cuts and tariffs are going to detonate the economy, rampant inflation and an actual debt crisis. Not the fake debt crisis they've pretended to have, but a real one that the strength of the USD might not be able to get them out of. A real US debt crisis is an international financial crisis though, so who knows where that goes as capital reorganizes itself. Mass deportation....seriously. The scale of the misery here kind of breaks the brain. We're talking about millions in internment camps ffs with the classic level of Trump oversight for their well being. More price inflation as the farm labour force basically evaporates.

Internationally....well, the Ukraine problem just became a much bigger one for Europe but this goes in a direction I don't think anyone wanted it to. Nuclear proliferation is back on the menu. I'd be shocked if Poland didn't develop a nuclear program. The EU has a common defence clause that is probably going to get tested by an incursion in the Baltics eventually. If that flops, the EU is probably cooked as a project in the medium to long term. Taiwan just got much less safe as well....and the ramifications of China dummying Taiwan are way more significant than most people understand. A huge part of the "supply chain" issue from covid was really just a slow down in semi conductor manufacturing. If China invades Taiwan, that goes off line for months and maybe ever. ASML will remote brick all of their machines the moment the first missile hits Taipei, everything in the world that requires an advanced chip isn't going to get built for a while.

Gaza? lol, get in on discounted newly built settlement housing while supplies last. Congratulations to the angry muslims in Michigan who protest voted this evening.
 
MindzEye said:
I was hoping he was wrong. He's a bit too fundamentalist about the demographic piece and it's impact on economies, but a lot of the general themes are probably pretty close to right. The one thing I'd say though is that the American order isn't disintegrating so much as it's eating itself. The American public at large doesn't appreciate how much they benefit from the (mostly) soft power American order and they've decided that they don't want it anymore, even if they don't understand that this is what they're saying.

There was a deep, deep failure of US policy makers over the last 40 years to more equitably spread the proceeds of globalization and this is what it's bred.
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But they don't. Zeihan argues that the order came at a cost to the american working class and this is why they are walking it back. His bit on chinese finance is fucking jaw dropping.
China's collapse is going to be bloody and painful
 
zeke said:
You've lived in a time where you had the freedom to do whatever you wanted and ignore everything else.

Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case for the vast majority of human history.
Click to expand...
actually, global awareness and connectedness and intervening across the globe is a pretty damn new thing that's only been available due to technology in the last 70 years.
 
Stinky said:
But they don't.
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Of course they do. The world gives them cheap goods in exchange for the ability to hold US dollars in their reserves. If the USD wasn't the world reserve currency it would lose a ton of value. They're the only country in the world that debt, as long as it's maintained as a reasonable ratio to GDP simply doesn't fucking matter. The US could have built the fucking Jetsons world at the world's expense if they were foresighted enough. The soft power involved in being the necessary nexus point in every major financial exchange in the world is fucking immense.

Stinky said:
Zeihan argues that the order came at a cost to the american working class and this is why they are walking it back.
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But that's the wealth inequality bit. That isn't baked into the American order, it was a set of choices made by policy elites over the course of decades. If the US had taken that same financial soft power advantage and simply identified that the hollowing out of the manufacturing economy had to be balanced out by cheap education, social housing, advanced transit (basically think nordic social democracy)....there would have been nothing to walk back. The middle class would have seen an improvement in their quality of lives even if wages stayed relatively flat (which also could have been mitigated but whatever).

Stinky said:
His bit on chinese finance is fucking jaw dropping.
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This is where I argue he's too much of a fundamentalist on the demographics bit and he imo underestimates the power of autocracy to shape a society. He looks at China through too western a lens.
 
MindzEye said:
This is where I argue he's too much of a fundamentalist on the demographics bit and he imo underestimates the power of autocracy to shape a society. He looks at China through too western a lens.
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Well. time will tell if the women working in light industrial de-urbanize and begin gardening.
 
Given what you know about wehave, would you vote for him?

That's how the working class think of the dems / elites.

The dems used to be the party of those without college educations that has shifted to the republicans. Sandal covers this in the Tyranny of Merit. This book as well as shop class as soulcraft really capture how the turnip flowed in on this populist wave.
 
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