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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

Wayward DP said:
is there a way to tease out hospitalization rates based on variant AND vax status.

i.e.
a) hospitalized, vaccinated, omicron; vs.
b) hospitalized, unvaxxed, omicron; vs.
c) hospitalized, vaccinated, any other variants; vs.
d) hospitalized, unvaxxed, any other variants

in the above breakdown the key remaining variable would likely be previous infections?
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This would all be nice to know. I think the UK has this data and the nerds did the work for us and adjusted for everything including reinfections, vaxxed vs unvaxxed on Delta vs Omicron, etc. Basically came to the conclusion that omicron MAY be slightly more mild than Delta overall (10-30% milder; still worse than Alpha and the others) but due to immune escape and protection from severe disease being slightly lower on omicron, a Delta breakthrough has an equivalent or even slightly LOWER chance of being hospitalized than an omicron breakthrough. This can be the case even if omicron is slightly more mild than Delta.

But my new question is what happens after hospitalization. What is the progression like compared to Delta? Some EARLY signs it could be less severe. Mechanical ventilation beds still holding flat in London.. There will be a bigger lag on those than hospitalizations but there could be something to omicron behaving differently.
 
BTW the same place I've posted having rapid tests has the kn95 masks as well. Since the cloth and even surgical masks appear to be semi useless against the cron I got a several boxes. Not bad either 10 masks for $15.
 
trujaysfan said:
BTW the same place I've posted having rapid tests has the kn95 masks as well. Since the cloth and even surgical masks appear to be semi useless against the cron I got a several boxes. Not bad either 10 masks for $15.
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Hey, could you post that link again btw? The place I bought mine from is out and taking preorders only.
 
Preston said:
In Denmark between Nov. 22 and Dec. 17, the hospitalization rate was higher for delta cases: 1%, compared with 0.6% for Omicron.

The reason? Omicron infects vaccinated people. Delta takes down the unvaxxed.
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Is there solid evidence that omicron avoids unvaxxed? Isn't it more likely that non vaxxed are not counted at same rate as vaxxed due to hesitancy to test? I see that in Ontario Omi is slightly more prevalent in unvaxxed but could just be less testing in the vaxxed. If Omi is milder in both groups then wouldn't it be safe to assume that unvaxxed way less likely to get tested?

Spit balling here.
 
SundinsTooth said:
Is there solid evidence that omicron avoids unvaxxed? Isn't it more likely that non vaxxed are not counted at same rate as vaxxed due to hesitancy to test? I see that in Ontario Omi is slightly more prevalent in unvaxxed but could just be less testing in the unvaxxed. If Omi is milder in both groups then wouldn't it be safe to assume that unvaxxed way less likely to get tested?

Spit balling here.
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No no omicron infects everyone. But what I'm saying is it's basically equally likely to infect vaxxed (2 doses) vs unvaxxed. So you have 100 Delta cases and the per capita proportion will likely be somewhere around: 80 unvaxxed, 20 vaxxed; so the hospitalization rate for that dataset of 100 people is likely going to be higher because 80% of the people are unvaxxed.

If you have 100 omicron cases it will be close to 50 vaxxed and 50 unvaxxed since the vaccines don't really add any extra layer of protection on omicron. So in this case the hospitalization rate will of course be much lower even if the disease is equally as severe. Omicron doesn't discriminate against the unvaxxed; Delta does.

Delta still has a niche.. The unvaccinated and those who were never infected are where it is still thriving in pockets of the population. In the UK they were finding that Delta is still making its way around schools/children.
 
Preston said:
No no omicron infects everyone. But what I'm saying is it's basically equally likely to infect vaxxed (2 doses) vs unvaxxed. So you have 100 Delta cases and the per capita proportion will likely be somewhere around: 80 unvaxxed, 20 vaxxed; so the hospitalization rate for that dataset of 100 people is likely going to be higher because 80% of the people are unvaxxed.

If you have 100 omicron cases it will be close to 50 vaxxed and 50 unvaxxed since the vaccines don't really add any extra layer of protection on omicron. So in this case the hospitalization rate will of course be much lower even if the disease is equally as severe. Omicron doesn't discriminate against the unvaxxed; Delta does.

Delta still has a niche.. The unvaccinated and those who were never infected are where it is still thriving in pockets of the population. In the UK they were finding that Delta is still making its way around schools/children.
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Ahh gotcha. Brain fog is real.
 
lecoqsportif said:
I got boosted in a hockey rink. I agree with Stinky, we need some serious thinking about personnel.
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vax clinics in hokey rinks, etc. makes a lot of sense. large facilities, cheap to rent out, can easily space people. a lot of the new ones also have very good ventilation.

we do have massive capacity issues, though, and nobody wants to foot the capital to deal with hallway medicine (even though the opex far exceeds the capital it would cost to boost capacity, i.e. LTC beds, etc.)
 
Btw thanks for posting that Ding guy. That is some sad shack shit. Guy has probably put more people on anti-anxiety meds than divorce.
 
SundinsTooth said:
Btw thanks for posting that Ding guy. That is some sad shack shit. Guy has probably put more people on anti-anxiety meds than divorce.
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No one who is actually qualified takes him seriously, including the ones who are reasonably doomsdayish about the whole situation. I'm pretty sure he's a nutritionist who took a couple of epidemiology courses and has taken the ball and ran with the twitter fame. He has a very loyal cult following. Then you have people on the other side who minimize aggressively. They get cult followings too. People really like the extreme doomsday or "everything is fine" takes. The common theme about the people on #BothSides is that they are not qualified. But they also have way more followers than the people you want to listen to, so good for them.
 
trujaysfan said:
12 for 12 negative...

Whoever said that rapid tests give too many false positives for use in schools is full of shit. What they actually meant is we will identify too many kids that are contagious but have no symptoms thus exposing how little we did to protect society.
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Personally I think people have overstated the likelihood of false positives from the beginning at least based on what we were taught in university (med lab science) for these types of tests. It's detecting the presence of an antigen, it's more likely to be that your levels aren't high enough to be picked up on a test than it's picking up something that's not there, unless there's contamination.
 
hockeylover said:
Personally I think people have overstated the likelihood of false positives from the beginning at least based on what we were taught in university (med lab science) for these types of tests. It's detecting the presence of an antigen, it's more likely to be that your levels aren't high enough to be picked up on a test than it's picking up something that's not there, unless there's contamination.
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Yes, false negative or people not understanding what this test actually indicates could be a slight issue but that's just an education issue not a science issue.
 
hockeylover said:
Personally I think people have overstated the likelihood of false positives from the beginning at least based on what we were taught in university (med lab science) for these types of tests. It's detecting the presence of an antigen, it's more likely to be that your levels aren't high enough to be picked up on a test than it's picking up something that's not there, unless there's contamination.
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With PCRs false positives are far more likely than false negatives.
 
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