• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

72,639 tests were performed and the backlog is 67,571 (rising a lot every day) so even ignoring the folks who don't get a PCR, we're missing a LOT of cases.
 
Preston said:
Lag caveats and all and based on UK and specifically London data we'll eventually get hit and get hit hard but so far we are holding strong:

View attachment 10838
Click to expand...
Big factor here is the younger ages getting hit early. But that is slowly changing and these numbers will sharply rise soon as they are in other countries when the elderly get hit.

 
wowsa. I mean the silver lining is that the down curve should be about as sharp as the up curve? says the saffers and danes?
 
You can see how it can be so difficult for data professionals to make heads or tails of the numbers. Given how much goes unreported.
 
Wayward DP said:
wowsa. I mean the silver lining is that the down curve should be about as sharp as the up curve? says the saffers and danes?
Click to expand...
Unfortunately Denmark data reportedly was wrong. They reported 0 cases the last 2 days on the site Topol used so they maybe haven't peaked yet. But your point still stands!
 
and then hilariously I almost expect case numbers to rapidly drop and hospitalizations to actually rise for a time while the disease does its thing (and the dumdums to proclaim all is well cause case numbers).
 
I couldn't care less about the Covid porn that the media is engaging with. To listen to them you'd think that Kingston has succumbed to the bubonic plague. Number of cases is irrelevant if the thing you've been infected with packs all the punch of a head cold. The numbers to pay attention to are hospitalizations and people in ICU's. After that you break down those people into sub groups like vaxxed vs unvaxxed and co-morbitity such as obesity, diabetes, etc.

The fact of the matter is that hospitalizations and ICU admissions are nowhere near what they were a year ago before people were getting vaccinated. There's been almost no deaths either. This is now, by and large, a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
 
Wayward DP said:
and then hilariously I almost expect case numbers to rapidly drop and hospitalizations to actually rise for a time while the disease does its thing (and the dumdums to proclaim all is well cause case numbers).
Click to expand...
The "Case numbers don't matter" people are bizarre and must have failed 3rd grade math. Does no one understand that weaker correlations don't mean broken correlations? Cases will always be the single best metric to use to predict hospitalizations and you get a headstart because of the lag from cases to hospitalizations and larger lag to deaths.

If the case numbers bother you so much then feel free to ignore them. But it's a pandemic and we sorta need to track them or we'd be flying blind.
 
Preston said:
The "Case numbers don't matter" people are bizarre and must have failed 3rd grade math. Does no one understand that weaker correlations don't mean broken correlations? Cases will always be the single best metric to use to predict hospitalizations and you get a headstart because of the lag from cases to hospitalizations and larger lag to deaths.

If the case numbers bother you so much then feel free to ignore them. But it's a pandemic and we sorta need to track them or we'd be flying blind.
Click to expand...
If Omicron were a comet headed straight for the Earth it would burn up in our atmosphere and whatever's left would be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.

Omicron may be more contagious, but it's no Delta when it comes to it's killing power. Delta was a .44 magnum. Omicron is a pellet gun, at least if you're already vaxxed.
 
Preston said:
And it's important to note that the vaccines best trait is their ability to keep people out of the ICU. It's kind of a miracle and beats the hell out of even the flu vaccines. We're gonna get hit and really struggle but we're really lucky this variant didn't come about pre-vaccines. Most evidence shows that this variant is very likely more severe than Alpha and look at our Alpha wave with just a fraction of the current daily case rate...
Click to expand...
Granted, I suspect most of the ICU folks are from Delta but this sorta says everything. The vaccines are proving their worth more than ever now that protection from symptomatic disease is basically gone. And since most young folks are getting hit in Omicron, it's the unvaxxed who are at risk of being hospitalized. Once it leaks into the older, highly vaxxed ages I suspect things may change. But this is a beautiful picture of vaccines doing some serious work.

1640360757464.png
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
If Omicron were a comet headed straight for the Earth it would burn up in our atmosphere and whatever's left would be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.

Omicron may be more contagious, but it's no Delta when it comes to it's killing power. Delta was a .44 magnum. Omicron is a pellet gun, at least if you're already vaxxed.
Click to expand...
1. Omicron is still hospitalizing and killing people. If we had London, England's hospitalization per capita our hospitals would be drowning right now because we simply lack capacity. They are further along in the wave than us so we should pay attention.

2. Omicron appears significantly less deadly because of population immunity. Delta was mild too on young vaxxed folks. Most estimates have it at 20-30% less likely to be hospitalized with Omicron compared to Delta (when adjusting for vaccines/reinfections). That makes it the second most severe variant we've had in the entire pandemic when it comes to likelihood of being hospitalized.

3. Our immune systems are brilliant. Let's pump that fact up instead of pretending that covid turned into a common cold.

4. Case counts still matter and not using them as a tool for infection control and hospital/ICU planning is dumb.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
If Omicron were a comet headed straight for the Earth it would burn up in our atmosphere and whatever's left would be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.

Omicron may be more contagious, but it's no Delta when it comes to it's killing power. Delta was a .44 magnum. Omicron is a pellet gun, at least if you're already vaxxed.
Click to expand...
I didn't realize you also dabbled in virology and epidemiology. why have you not been more forthcoming with your expert analysis?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top