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OT: Coronavirus Resources - and other things to not worry about

I don't love the ages in the study. I think it would be more telling if they got the higher risk ages in there because that's the group that crowds hospitals. Extrapolating to older ages based on priors doesn't always work; if there was a significant reduction in severity you'll likely see it more in the old ages.

As for confounders, David does eventually mention it



It's fine and gives a nice snapshot but it's obviously limited. I'm still hoping for a greater reduction, and maybe that can be more visible in deaths, ICU, etc. 54% reduction puts it as the second most severe dominant variant we've had yet. It's possible and fairly in line with other studies in fairness.
 
Preston said:
I don't love the ages in the study. I think it would be more telling if they got the higher risk ages in there because that's the group that crowds hospitals. Extrapolating to older ages based on priors doesn't always work; if there was a significant reduction in severity you'll likely see it more in the old ages.

As for confounders, David does eventually mention it



It's fine and gives a nice snapshot but it's obviously limited. I'm still hoping for a greater reduction, and maybe that can be more visible in deaths, ICU, etc. 54% reduction puts it as the second most severe dominant variant we've had yet. It's possible and fairly in line with other studies in fairness.
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But still this is a 54% reduction in vaxxed to vaxxed and unvaxxed to unvaxxed, no? Not in unadjusted overall to overall?
 
zeke said:
But still this is a 54% reduction in vaxxed to vaxxed and unvaxxed to unvaxxed, no? Not in unadjusted overall to overall?
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Yeah that's what it's claiming, though the confounder is an important bit. A lot more reinfections are happening with omicron (from both vaxxed and unvaxxed) so that will juice the numbers artificially a decent amount. Would like to see how they adjusted too.

And it's underpowered with only 21 omicron hospitalizations in a very young age cohort. I have a hard time with a severity study that doesn't include anyone over 44. Severity will be hard to suss out without having a large diverse group of completely immunonaive folks.
 
Preston said:
Yeah that's what it's claiming, though the confounder is an important bit. A lot more reinfections are happening with omicron (from both vaxxed and unvaxxed) so that will juice the numbers artificially a decent amount. Would like to see how they adjusted too.
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Yeah his commentary threw me - without assessing their calculations one way or another, a 54% reduction in each category would be a massive lowering of hospitalization vs delta.
 
Yeah and I don't think it's possible for it to include vaxxed vs vaxxed with any confidence. Delta was over 2x more severe than alpha and vaxxed delta negated it to the point where it was barely more severe than vaxxed alpha. The "reward" for being vaxxed was highest with delta. Severity doesn't necessarily decrease a fixed amount when you're vaccinated. Plus there is a small reduction in effectiveness in our vaccines vs severe disease for omicron (if infected) so that would tip the scales the other way if you adjust for that.

I do think we can expect to see a 50-70% reduction in hospitalizations as a whole because most people who are catching omicron are vaccinated. That's the range we're kinda seeing everywhere right now

If we really wanted to know intrinsic severity the only way would be to have a study with a large, diverse group of immunonaive individuals That's the only way really and there aren't many left. Based on the lack of lung infectivity my hunch says it's closer to the original than most of the data is showing right now but that's a pure guess.
 
MindzEye said:
Apparently he's blocked me on twitter previously. Which I'm entirely cool with.
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Just how much time do you guys spend commenting on forums, twitter, and the rest of social media.

This place alone is too much for me, not to mention if I had several other online locales that I frequented enough to get blocked by people.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Just how much time do you guys spend commenting on forums, twitter, and the rest of social media.

This place alone is too much for me, not to mention if I had several other online locales that I frequented enough to get blocked by people.
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I don't tweet much at all fwiw, but I might have called him a cunt years ago.
 
Haha, that's what I'm saying, that you guys are so engaged on all these platforms, you can't even remember you've tangled with someone and that they blocked you.

I want to throw my phone into the ocean by the way.
 
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