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OT: The Official Toronto Raptors Thread

zeke said:
i mean your numbers seem pretty clear to me.

Robinson also has never been a true fulltime starting minutes guy, like all those celtics have been most of their careers. he's more of a poeltl level guy. but with major injury history now.

bridges' 2yr bpm is .7, 3yr is 1.0.

and I don't know how long Brunson can keep up this level .
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Sure, if you don't think Robinson bounces back, and you don't think Bridges just had an off year (easily, easily the worst of his career), sure.

But if you think Robinson bounces back and you think Bridges is a very good to excellent 2 way wing as he's been most seasons of his career, the starting lineups aren't that far off from each other with the Knicks lineup having the type of defenders that can lock down Tatum & Brown.

Boston's bench is starting to look pretty anemic imo with Horford finally showing signs of sliding towards retirement last year, Hauser, Pritchard, Kornet, and Tillman being their only other functioning rotation bodies and no salary room to add more. Knicks will probably add one or two solid rotation bodies to Dante, Hart, McBride and Thibs version of Precious.
 
MindzEye said:
Including Kristaps?

I seem to remember you arguing that he was a fake starter, etc.
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yeah he came down in minutes on a real team like i thought. under 30 and the 5th most important player.

but Mitch gets even less than that and doesn't dominate that role like kristaps does.
 
MindzEye said:
Sure, if you don't think Robinson bounces back, and you don't think Bridges just had an off year (easily, easily the worst of his career), sure.

But if you think Robinson bounces back and you think Bridges is a very good to excellent 2 way wing as he's been most seasons of his career, the starting lineups aren't that far off from each other with the Knicks lineup having the type of defenders that can lock down Tatum & Brown.

Boston's bench is starting to look pretty anemic imo with Horford finally showing signs of sliding towards retirement last year, Hauser, Pritchard, Kornet, and Tillman being their only other functioning rotation bodies and no salary room to add more. Knicks will probably add one or two solid rotation bodies to Dante, Hart, McBride and Thibs version of Precious.
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Brown and Jrue also had "off years" by the nerdies.
 
zeke said:
Brown and Jrue also had "off years" by the nerdies.
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How do you figure? Brown went from 1.3 to 0.7 in BPM but up from 2.6 to 2.9 in EPM.

Jrue did, sure. But he's also 34. Around the same age is when a similar guard like Kyle started his decline from analytic excellence. Conley at 34-35. Chris Paul at 35-36. Father Time, undefeated, etc.
 
3yr BPM

Tatum (26) 36.2mpg, 5.2
Porzingis (29) 30.6mpg, 4.4
Holiday (34) 32.8mpg, 2.8
White (30) 30.0mpg, 2.4
Brown (28) 34.3mpg, 1.4


Brunson (28) 34.1mpg, 3.6
Randle (30) 35.4mpg, 2.1
Robinson (26) 26.2mpg, 1.9
Bridges (28) 35.1mpg, 1.0
Anunoby (27) 35.2mpg, 0.2



I mean the celtics almost double them up.
 
Yup, and if you think that

- BPM is right about OG instead of EPM (BPM had OG as the 58th best defender in the league, EPM has him 6th)
- Jrue isn't going to continue to decline
- Bridges doesn't bounce back to the 87-90th percentile as he's been most of his career that EPM thinks he is
- Randle is the average of what he's been instead of at one of the extremes like he's been in 4 of the last 4 years. Dude has put up 2 seasons of 3.2 EPM over the last 4 years

Then sure, it's not close.

I'm just saying that you don't have to squint hard to see everything go as positive for the Knicks next year as it went for the Celtics this year and have the Knicks starting 5 keep it tight enough that what is likely to be a big bench advantage is the deciding factor.
 
MindzEye said:
Yup, and if you think that

- BPM is right about OG instead of EPM (BPM had OG as the 58th best defender in the league, EPM has him 6th)
- Jrue isn't going to continue to decline
- Bridges doesn't bounce back to the 87-90th percentile as he's been most of his career that EPM thinks he is
- Randle is the average of what he's been instead of at one of the extremes like he's been in 4 of the last 4 years. Dude has put up 2 seasons of 3.2 EPM over the last 4 years

Then sure, it's not close.

I'm just saying that you don't have to squint hard to see everything go as positive for the Knicks next year as it went for the Celtics this year and have the Knicks starting 5 keep it tight enough that what is likely to be a big bench advantage is the deciding factor.
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I mean if everything comes up roses for the knicks and shit for the celts then maybe celts are only significantly better instead of way way better?
 
zeke said:
I mean if everything comes up roses for the knicks and shit for the celts then maybe celts are only significantly better instead of way way better?
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I don't really agree with your characterizations there. I don't think everything has to come up roses for the Knicks, just to stay healthy and work well as a unit. I don't think anything has to go shit for the celtics either, just for Jrue's (and Al's) age related decline to continue as those things tend to do.

The elephant in the room is the cap situation. The Knicks starting 5 doesn't have to be as good as the Celtics 5, it just needs to be close enough that the bench (plus the additions they can afford) is the deciding factor. I'm not sure if you appreciate how limiting the Celtics being over the 2nd apron is:

- Can't use MLE
- Can't trade multiple players in the same trade (so no 2-1 where they trade say Al & Pritchard for a better player making the same money as the 2 of them combined)
- Can't take on any salary at all in trades (For everyone else it's 25% salary matching)
- No trade exceptions, so even if you do make a trade to shed salary you can't generate a trade exception to be used later to add salary
- No sign and trades
- No sending cash in any deal
- Your 1st round pick 7 years out gets frozen for being above the 2nd apron, so no move in the future can include selling off your 2032 1st if you're over the 24-25 2nd Apron.

The long and the short of it is that the Celtics are locked in to this roster, while the Knicks aren't.
 
Leafin' said:
I’d rather give the kids minutes than bring in Powell tbh. Give them extended looks.
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imo one of the worst things you can do is put young players in roles they're not ready for. It hurts the teams and it fucks with young player's confidence. Norm is just theoretical at this point. But any veteran SG who can do SG things would be a good add for us (this also assumes Brown never makes it to training camp for us, if he's here, then he's that veteran guy until the deadline)

I don't see opportunity being a problem for Gradey or Ochai at the 2/3 with a veteran here. Ja'Kobe probably starts the season in the G and a good year from him would be where he's pumped the G League in the first half and earned a bench role down the back half of the season. Gradey should be around 17-20mpg this year, Ochai around the same unless their play is demanding more.
 
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