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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

I'm hoping Matz will re-sign at something like 3/36. I don't think he has been good enough to get a QO. Ryu-Berrios-Manoah-Matz is a good front 4. Hopefully they'll get an upgrade on Stripling for the 5th spot and then let Pearson try to steal it. Again, I want them to get Syndergaard, but in the likely event that doesn't happen then I don't know, maybe someone like Jon Gray.

Semien is probably gone but they should have money to find a replacement. Could even be whoever is left on the SS FA carosel again at the end of the year but maybe this time get a guy to play 3B. I can see a guy like Story not getting what he wants in FA and signing a pillow contract to see if he can hit FA next year at 29 coming off a better offensive year. I can also see him getting $150M. Who knows.

But yeah, the young guys are going to get expensive soon. Vlad is arb eligible this year, probably coming off a #2 placement in the MVP vote. Bo next year. Teoscar is going to get maybe $10M this offseason? Their young MLBers are going to have to be paid and they just traded a couple of guys that would likely help the team for cheap in the next couple of years. Rogers is going to have to step up with some big dollars in the next few years.
 
manny said:
I'm hoping Matz will re-sign at something like 3/36. I don't think he has been good enough to get a QO. Ryu-Berrios-Manoah-Matz is a good front 4. Hopefully they'll get an upgrade on Stripling for the 5th spot and then let Pearson try to steal it. Again, I want them to get Syndergaard, but in the likely event that doesn't happen then I don't know, maybe someone like Jon Gray.

Semien is probably gone but they should have money to find a replacement. Could even be whoever is left on the SS FA carosel again at the end of the year but maybe this time get a guy to play 3B. I can see a guy like Story not getting what he wants in FA and signing a pillow contract to see if he can hit FA next year at 29 coming off a better offensive year. I can also see him getting $150M. Who knows.

But yeah, the young guys are going to get expensive soon. Vlad is arb eligible this year, probably coming off a #2 placement in the MVP vote. Bo next year. Teoscar is going to get maybe $10M this offseason? Their young MLBers are going to have to be paid and they just traded a couple of guys that would likely help the team for cheap in the next couple of years. Rogers is going to have to step up with some big dollars in the next few years.
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Yeah, the SS carousel is going to be wild. Semien, Seager, Correa, Story, Baez all options, not even counting the lesser tier guys. Bo's been good enough in the field that we don't need to move him off the spot, but at the same time, he's probably still worse defensively than all those guys. Seager would be a nice choice to give a LH bat, and he hasn't been great defensively at SS maybe you convince him to move to 3B. Or you skip those expensive names at the top, and you target a couple guys in the Eduardo Escobar/Cesar Hernandez and hope that a couple out of those guys plus Biggio/Espinal can come through, knowing that you have guys like Kevin Smith and Groshans on their way.

The other choice you have is to deal a catcher and go big. Like, Kirk would probably still fetch a good return, or even Jansen with his hot September potentially becomes a trade chip.

And the rest of it all depends on what kind of payroll the team wants to run. If they want to run about the same as they were doing this year, my back of the napkin calculation probably gives 20-25m to play with, maybe a touch more if they get some good deals in arbitration. But again, hopefully the team will at least be willing to put in the 15M or so extra to get back to the payrolls they were running 2016-2018. If you have 40 or 50M to play with, that goes an awful lot further to helping the team than having to scape for the lower amount.
 
MON4NHLTOR4MLB said:
I get that but I’m just saying ownership and management aren’t dumb and they have to realize the time is now for this team to start piling on the needed pieces
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Yes and those pieces can be added in free agency
manny said:
I'm hoping Matz will re-sign at something like 3/36. I don't think he has been good enough to get a QO. Ryu-Berrios-Manoah-Matz is a good front 4. Hopefully they'll get an upgrade on Stripling for the 5th spot and then let Pearson try to steal it. Again, I want them to get Syndergaard, but in the likely event that doesn't happen then I don't know, maybe someone like Jon Gray.

Semien is probably gone but they should have money to find a replacement. Could even be whoever is left on the SS FA carosel again at the end of the year but maybe this time get a guy to play 3B. I can see a guy like Story not getting what he wants in FA and signing a pillow contract to see if he can hit FA next year at 29 coming off a better offensive year. I can also see him getting $150M. Who knows.

But yeah, the young guys are going to get expensive soon. Vlad is arb eligible this year, probably coming off a #2 placement in the MVP vote. Bo next year. Teoscar is going to get maybe $10M this offseason? Their young MLBers are going to have to be paid and they just traded a couple of guys that would likely help the team for cheap in the next couple of years. Rogers is going to have to step up with some big dollars in the next few years.
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That’s about the right number for Matz , better than handing Ray 120 mil

American League will get a second season to figure out Ray and his 2 pitches .
 
Is Ray one of those guys that figured it out late? Pete Walker clearly helped him get to where he got this year. Prior to that he was a bit of a dud. Would be tough to replace a near Cy Young caliber pitcher.

Maybe Walker and management can identify the next Ray. Maybe it is Matz? Not sure I feel good with that.

One thing I hope for is that management puts together a complete team to start the season. No more clear bullpen issues. No more hoping the rotation comes together. Go into the year with a clear roster with minimal holes. Then at the deadline you add a cherry on top to get us to the next level.

Exciting times for Jays fans. Definitely looks like this team is on the up. Next season should be hella fun.
 
Leafin' said:
Is Ray one of those guys that figured it out late? Pete Walker clearly helped him get to where he got this year. Prior to that he was a bit of a dud. Would be tough to replace a near Cy Young caliber pitcher.

Maybe Walker and management can identify the next Ray. Maybe it is Matz? Not sure I feel good with that.

One thing I hope for is that management puts together a complete team to start the season. No more clear bullpen issues. No more hoping the rotation comes together. Go into the year with a clear roster with minimal holes. Then at the deadline you add a cherry on top to get us to the next level.

Exciting times for Jays fans. Definitely looks like this team is on the up. Next season should be hella fun.
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Ray also had a 90% LOB%, a .161 opponent batting average with men in scoring position and .181 with any on base.

He also was absolute murder the first 2 times through the lineup, and then had a 5.51 ERA the 3rd time through. If he comes relatively cheaply, sure, great. But there's a lot of red flags for someone who's on the wrong side of 30 that I don't want to be stuck with the bill. If those solo shots suddenly turn into 2 or 3-run HR, he starts looking a lot like RA Dickey v2.
 
UWHabs said:
Ray also had a 90% LOB%, a .161 opponent batting average with men in scoring position and .181 with any on base.

He also was absolute murder the first 2 times through the lineup, and then had a 5.51 ERA the 3rd time through. If he comes relatively cheaply, sure, great. But there's a lot of red flags for someone who's on the wrong side of 30 that I don't want to be stuck with the bill. If those solo shots suddenly turn into 2 or 3-run HR, he starts looking a lot like RA Dickey v2.
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Great post
 
MON4NHLTOR4MLB said:
I get that but I’m just saying ownership and management aren’t dumb and they have to realize the time is now for this team to start piling on the needed pieces
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People need to stop perpetuating the fiction that large corporations own sports teams because they want to win championships. They buy them to make money. And once they have made their money they dump it. The best you as a fan can hope for is an owner who owns a team as an extension of his own ego and who sees on field or on ice success as a reflection of his own self worth. Even then you have to hope that the guy isn't narcissistic to the point where his ego actually hampers the forward movement of his club (like Melnyk in Ottawa or Jerrah in Dallas)

But a corporation like Rogers? Dream on. The Jays are just content for their television properties and a few lines on the balance sheet. They don't give a shit about wins and losses, just profits and losses.
 
UWHabs said:
Ray also had a 90% LOB%, a .161 opponent batting average with men in scoring position and .181 with any on base.

He also was absolute murder the first 2 times through the lineup, and then had a 5.51 ERA the 3rd time through. If he comes relatively cheaply, sure, great. But there's a lot of red flags for someone who's on the wrong side of 30 that I don't want to be stuck with the bill. If those solo shots suddenly turn into 2 or 3-run HR, he starts looking a lot like RA Dickey v2.
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I do think Ray has turned a corner and is probably going to be a good pitcher for a number of years, but this was very likely his career year. Perfect time for Ray. Someone is going to give him a huge pile of money.

I’ve said before that he is a bit reminiscent of Cliff Lee (not the repertoire, just the mid-career turn from inconsistent with control issues to suddenly good command and dominant performance.). Lee struggled with HR in his 20s as well and then became one of the stingiest SP with the long ball in his 30s. If Ray could do that, he would be incredible. Odds are against it though.
 
Ray's comment to end the year was pretty awful. He's gone. I figured he would have been a little more welcoming to the idea given what this organization did for his career
 
JackBurton said:
Ray's comment to end the year was pretty awful. He's gone. I figured he would have been a little more welcoming to the idea given what this organization did for his caree
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What the player says at the end of a season is mainly for the benefit of the fans and no real indication of their desire or plans.

Unless a player has a deep desire to stay with a team. I think nine out of ten players leave most of the decision making (best deal) up to their agent then just give the final yea or nay. There have been a few players willing to leave money on the table to play for their preferred team but not many.
 
anne25 said:
What the player says at the end of a season is mainly for the benefit of the fans and no real indication of their desire or plans.

Unless a player has a deep desire to stay with a team. I think nine out of ten players leave most of the decision making (best deal) up to their agent then just give the final yea or nay. There have been a few players willing to leave money on the table to play for their preferred team but not many.
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I mean, all you need to do hear is compare and contrast the comments of Ray vs. Semien... they very much speak for themselves, loud and clear.

Ray is gone.
 
They’ll both go wherever they can get the most money. Ray, for all his apparent indifference, isn’t going to say no to all extra year or extra $20M if it’s from the Jays. Semien, as much as he’s saying the right things, is going to go wherever he can get this biggest paycheque for the longest time.

These statements are pretty much meaningless, either way.
 
Never pay premium price for non elite pitchers in their 30's.

Never.

Pitching is always risky by nature, and the only way to mitigate the risk is to stick to guys putting up elite results over an extended sample, who have a chance at aging gracefully (aren't completely reliant on velo). I don't know if Ray qualifies there.
 
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