OT: The Toronto Blue Jays
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Wayward DP
Well-known member
of Ray, Matz, and Semien, I would be pretty shocked if we ended up with more than just Matz returning.
Kirby Yates I bet they resign though!
Kirby Yates I bet they resign though!
Agreed get Matz resigned and get term with Berrios
Berrios /Ryu /Matz / Moose ....didnt have that to start last year
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
Clearly a revamping of the rules is needed to save the sport. You can make the case that the analytic approach works, unfortunately for the game and its fans it works too well. In sports, what generates excitement in a game is when those carefully laid plans go awry, not when they go off without a hitch. Take the guesswork out of a sport like baseball and you will eventually make it unwatchable and kill it off. In the NFL, practically every single kickoff now goes through the endzone for a touchback because kickers can now outkick the length of the field. Maybe they need to move the kickoff spot back to the 10 yard line to encourage more run backs. All I know is that if every kickoff is going out the back of the endzone it's not exciting for me as a fan.
There was a good documentary on Netflix a while back that told the story of a Canadian curler named Pat Ryan, who basically brought analytics to that sport. The result was that his rink became unstoppable. He blew away his competition. Unfortunately the way he did this was by using strategies which, while undoubtedly successful, nonetheless managed to make the sport unwatchable (or for the rest of us, even more unwatchable than before, which is no mean feat) It got to the point where spectators at events like the Brier were heckling and yelling "BOOOOORING!!!" every time Ryan was playing. Eventually the governing body of the sport changed the rules to force Ryan to play the sport of curling again as it was meant to be played. They had to do this in order to save the sport from becoming an unwatchable travesty. Ryan broke no laws. He used what was there in the rule book to his advantage. But for all his personal success he didn't make the sport any better nor were people who were unfamiliar with the sport encouraged to start watching it. Analytics were good for Ryan (temporarily, until everyone else started copying him) but very bad for curling as a spectator sport.
We enjoy watching sports because they entertain us. Sports that don't entertain us don't attract fans, sponsors or television money. Baseball isn't there yet, but it's on a slippery slope. It is losing traction with the public to the point where it's almost become a niche sport like hockey. The day after the World Series, I got in my car to head to work and turned on my local TSN radio affiliate. Because it was before 6am when the local jocks show up, they were playing ESPN Radio. I can assure you that during the time I was listening, the words "baseball" and "World Series" were never mentioned. The only thing they talked about (the only thing that US sports radio ever talks about) was football. You never would have guessed that the biggest baseball game of the season had taken place 10 hours before, even on a radio network that has the broadcast rights to the World Series.
Analytics are all fine and dandy but baseball is going to have to figure out a way to become baseball again. I don't care that base stealing and bunting are "net negatives". They make the game more enjoyable to watch. Even the potential for them to happen during a game makes for more enjoyment. But when you know that the end result of any given at bat is going to either be a strikeout or a home run that's not getting anyone's juices flowing. Analytics work the same way tobacco and alcohol work. Unfortunately, like tobacco and alcohol, the overuse of analytics is ultimately fatal.
UWHabs
Well-known member
I mean, the World Series still averaged over 11m viewers per game, so it's not like baseball is dead. But yeah, obviously the current analytic trends have shifted to make the game less interesting, and it will be up to the sport to adapt. The one part that will be very hard for them to "fix" is the current trend towards bullpen games. It's hard to get too excited for a game when the pitching matchup is Framber Valdez vs Tucker Davidson, and when you know that the 2 starters will combine for at most 5 innings. I know a few years ago I would idly watch baseball games often based on who's starting, if the game continues on its current path, that will stop really being possible or worthwhile.
manny
Well-known member
I think the fix to bullpen games is to say you have to declare your 4 or 5 eligible P for the start of the game (when you fill out your lineup card) and then that’s it. Exceptions for injury and extra innings only. It seems like a major change but we’d get used to it quickly.
Get rid of the shift by just requiring 3 OF and 2IF on each side of second base. Probably the easiest fix, but I’m not sure how much difference it will make.
I’m not sure how to bring the SB back except that if there is a way of getting more balls in play, you further incentivize staying out of the DP and so maybe more teams would steal.
Also if there is more premium on defense because of balls in play reasons, then you’re maybe likely to get more athletic skinny Willie Mays-Hayes types on a roster. Maybe.
Lots of this can be accomplished if they just stop juicing the ball.
Get rid of the shift by just requiring 3 OF and 2IF on each side of second base. Probably the easiest fix, but I’m not sure how much difference it will make.
I’m not sure how to bring the SB back except that if there is a way of getting more balls in play, you further incentivize staying out of the DP and so maybe more teams would steal.
Also if there is more premium on defense because of balls in play reasons, then you’re maybe likely to get more athletic skinny Willie Mays-Hayes types on a roster. Maybe.
Lots of this can be accomplished if they just stop juicing the ball.
anne25
Well-known member
. There was a World Series this year???. Nothing that I noticed in my my local newspaper about that.I know that in most of Can, hockey training camps get more media coverage than play-off baseball games. Over the past 5-10 years most of my social group who followed baseball have pretty much drifted away from the game. Maybe because the perceived Jays lack of success but I think that the normal slow pace game has gotten even slower. Except for the occasional home run derby type game even I find the game has become quite boring.
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
I like all of these suggestions, although I doubt MLB would be interested in doing anything to reduce the number of home runs. Chicks dig the long ball, and all that. If I were declared Dictator of Baseball tomorrow one of the first things I'd do is move the fences back in any and every park where it was possible to do so and raise their height. That would eliminate cheap dingers and keep more balls in play, reserving home runs for the real moon shots only. But every time a team wants to boost its fortunes it seems like the first thing they do is to move the fences in. The powers-that-be need to put a stop to that practice. And yes, stop juicing the balls. Hell, bring back the dead balls that Babe Ruth used to hit out of Yankee Stadium and see how many Punch and Judy hitters can reach the 20HR mark then.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
This won't "help" the game the way the traditionalists would want. The shift is the answer to the problem of pull contact being worth way, way more than any other type of contact. If having one defender on the weak side of the infield isn't incentive to hit the ball the other way, there's little that you can do to incentivize "putting the ball in play". Especially considering the fact that a weak hitter who just tries to slap the ball the other way isn't getting shifted against anyway.
If you remove the ability to shift, you're just going to get more hard hit balls going for hits leading to more offence, more pitches thrown, the need for more pitchers to throw in a game, etc.
The problem is simple value. A single isn't worth .25 of a HR. Swinging for HR's is simply the ideal strategy for a hitter, and striking out is little different than a pop out, ground out, etc outside of fairly limited amount of situations. If you swing for hard contact (aka, swinging for a HR), you might get a HR. If you don't have the launch angle for that, you stand a good chance of getting a hit.
The only way to bring the SB back is to figure out a way for more runners to steal at 75% efficiency or better. The only thing I can think of is limiting pick off attempts. Playing cat and mouse with a base stealer and throwing over a half dozen times is fucking boring to watch, especially the first 2-3 times that are half hearted. Limit the throws over to 2. Now you're incentizing a runner to take an aggressive lead to force a throw over because forcing that first throw over now puts the pitcher in position where they only get one more freebie. After the freebies are done, if you throw over and don't pick the runner off, give either an automatic base (kind of extreme), or it's an automatic ball to the strike/ball count.
Or blend the two and make a system like this
1st attempt - freebie
2nd attempt (if failed) - automatic ball added to count
3rd attempt (if failed) - automatic base for the runner
Make throwing over cost something and runners will take more aggressive leads. More aggressive leads means more opportunities to run with higher rates of success.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
One of the more subtle changes they tested in the minors this year was bigger bases. Not only will this help reduce injuries at 1st (more room for both players feet), it makes stolen bases just a little more likely to be successful. It's a great idea and I don't see any downside.
UWHabs
Well-known member
Banning the shift will help make pull side groundballs/line drives more valuable. Part of the problem right now with the heavy pull batters is that since teams are running extreme shifts, they know that every groundball is basically always an out. So why bother even trying to hit it on the ground? Better to try to loft it and knock it out.
So yeah, if you ban the shift, you won't reduce pulling the ball, and you'll probably see even more of it. But if suddenly guys your guys like Seager or Carpenter or whoever now has a groundball hole, they don't have to only try for the HR, and might just be content with putting balls in play. So the theory goes if they are more willing to do that, maybe they don't need to be as selective on pitches, and maybe will attack earlier in the count.
Whether it works? Who knows. As you say, it might just lead to more hits without changing anything else. But it's hard to say.
And yeah, limiting pickoffs to me is a very obvious thing too. If you know the guy only has 1 or 2 freebies, then now after he's used them up you can stretch that lead, because suddenly they don't want to risk failing and costing a ball or a base.
manny
Well-known member
Yep, that's the idea with banning the shift. Aside from whatever the players are trying to do and whether that would change (I'm skeptical it would change at all) it would mean more singles instead of groundouts. In theory it will raise batting averages at least a bit. I don't see the problem.
I like the idea of limiting pickoff throws to 1B. It would actually make that aspect of the game interesting and probably result it quite a few more SB. More pickoffs, too.
Wayward DP
Well-known member
wait I thought the game was beautiful and should not change - now you are saying rule changes are necessary?
so rule changes to adapt to modern realities now = a good thing?
have you ever considered that the things about baseball that you enjoy watching may be different than the things about baseball that others enjoy watching?
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
The game WAS beautiful until the nerds took over and turned it into math. You want to know why baseball is having trouble attracting new fans? Because nobody wants to watch math. But even before that, baseball messed with things that never should have been messed with. lowering the mound, the DH, moving the fences in, juicing the baseball and looking the other way when players juiced themselves. And every one of those moves was rationalized by the excuse that it would provide more offense and attract more fans. So it seems that the real problem baseball has is that it's too cerebral and subtle a game for 21st century sports fans to get into. They like home runs. Anything other than that and they're staring at their phones. The only real reason why hockey and baseball now have netting all around the playing area is because too many spectators aren't paying attention.
So things have changed and rule changes will be necessary in order to get the game back to some semblance of what it once was. Unfortunately the types of changes which would be needed would curb excessive offense and lowering the average number of runs scored per game is a third rail as far as MLB is concerned. But the example of curling is significant because it bucks the trend. The powers that be who control that sport recognized they had a problem and they took proactive steps to protect the essence of their game. They knew that nobody wanted to watch a game in which whoever had last rock would automatically win the end and repeat it ten times. And eventually people will get bored with going to a baseball game and getting a home run derby instead. The very thing that makes a home run exciting is that it's not something that's supposed to happen every 5th at bat. When they first brought in the home run derby during the all-star break it was must-see TV. Today the best hitters in the game don't even participate and it's as boring as watching paint dry. People have been oversaturated with home runs and now they elicit shrugs. Same in hockey. When I was a kid a penalty shot was something akin to a unicorn. It existed in legend more than in fact. Today they hand out penalty shots like breath mints and we have shoot-outs. The allure of the penalty shot is no longer special.
And yes I'm sure that others enjoy watching different things in baseball than I. But that's because people today are fucking morons with the attention span of a developmentally delayed goldfish. They have no patience or desire to learn the game. They just want a spectacle, like the last days of the Roman Empire. Then again, we are now in the dying days of western democracy so I shouldn't be surprised that people have turned into suicidal hedonists who would rather cheer a home run than wonder about whether a hit and run play was about to happen.
UWHabs
Well-known member
Always have to be cautious with expecting the world, but yeah, he's looking more like Kirk with the bat while also being competent defensively.
manny
Well-known member
Fangraphs top 50 FA: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
Semien is ranked 3rd and projected to get 4/120
Ray 7th, projected to get 4/112
Matz #31, 3/42
Semien is ranked 3rd and projected to get 4/120
Ray 7th, projected to get 4/112
Matz #31, 3/42